Tornado Warning 9, NWS Paducah, KY

653 
WWUS53 KPAH 030111
SVSPAH

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Paducah KY
711 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

MOC223-030145-
/O.CON.KPAH.TO.W.0009.000000T0000Z-200303T0145Z/
Wayne MO-
711 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CST FOR WAYNE
COUNTY...
    
At 708 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located near Piedmont, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. The public reported a possible 
         tornado between Piedmont and Mill Spring at 705 PM. Another 
         strong circulation was 9 miles south of Greenville. This 
         storm was also producing ping pong size hail. 

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Piedmont, Greenville, Lake Wappapello State Park, Williamsville,
Wappapello, Shook and Mill Spring.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3714 9078 3714 9076 3717 9076 3717 9074
      3723 9073 3719 9022 3709 9022 3708 9011
      3704 9011 3704 9015 3701 9015 3696 9022
      3694 9022 3692 9025 3693 9043 3700 9073
      3705 9073 3705 9078
TIME...MOT...LOC 0108Z 275DEG 26KT 3707 9062 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.25IN

$$

PS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Tornado Watch 35 has been issued for much of the region basically
near and south of the front. The presence of the front, along with
a surface low that may move along it this evening, is the primary
reason for a tornado watch rather than a severe thunderstorm
watch. The potential for backed low-level winds with these
features could enhance the low-level shear allowing for greater
potential for tornadoes. Large hail will continue to be the
primary concern, along with damaging straight-line winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Main forecast issues come with severe weather potential very late
this afternoon or early this evening through the early morning
hours Tuesday as a surface low tracks northeast up a stationary
boundary located very close to the OH River. Storm initiation
should be over portions of southeast MO between 4 PM and 7 PM as a
mid level impulse shoots east toward northeast AR/southwest MO
and provides added lift near the surface low over northeast AR,
and low level jet 25-35 kts kicks in.

Mid- level lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 degrees and MLCAPES from
1000-1500 J/KG suggest strong updrafts capable of producing large
hail. Long, straight-lined hodographs and effective shear up close
to 40 kts or so would be supportive of multi-cell storms with
right and left splitting supercells. Therefore, will also be a
threat of damaging wind gusts and possibly a tornado or two. Last
but not least would be the risk of localized flooding, esp in
areas where storms may repeat, or train.

The surface low should race northeast along the OH River and out
of the forecast area after midnight, and force the trailing cold
front through our eastern counties by around 2 or 3 AM.
Thereafter, high pressure will build into the southern Plains and
lower/mid MS River Valley, bringing clearing skies Tuesday/Tuesday
night and mild early March temps in the lower/mid 60s at most
locations. Wed should also be a rather nice day with afternoon
temps in the 60s, though there could be some increase in cloud
cover over our southern areas in response to the next weather
maker well off to our southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

After a chance of some light rain Wed night into Thursday, a few
days of dry weather are expected. Rain chances will then return for
early next week. Overnight lows will remain quite chilly, but
daytime highs will be in the 50s and 60s.

As far as the rain chances for Wed night into Thursday, this precip
will be associated with a southern stream 500 mb shortwave that will
eject from the southern Plains across the lower Mississippi Valley.
This is the same shortwave that last week's models predicted would
bring very heavy rain on Tuesday and Tues night. A lot has changed
since then. Besides the slower timing, the track is much further
south. Any rainfall amounts will be less than a tenth of an inch
Thursday. Overnight lows will be around 40, with daytime highs 55 to
60.

Thursday night into Friday, the southern stream shortwave will phase
with a northern stream 500 mb shortwave over the eastern seaboard.
This will result in a strongly confluent northwesterly flow of dry
and colder air aloft. Skies will become sunny Friday, but gusty
northwest winds will limit highs to the mid 40s in sw Indiana and
around 50 elsewhere.

This weekend will be dry with a warming trend as a 500 mb ridge
moves east across the Mississippi Valley. Highs will be in the 50s
Saturday and around 60 on Sunday. Clouds will be on the increase
Sunday, along with southerly winds.

The ensemble means are in agreement on a 500 mb southwest flow
pattern early next week. A moist southern stream shortwave will
likely bring some rain Monday. This looks like a low-amplitude
progressive pattern, so preliminary indications point away from a
heavy rainfall event.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

Thunderstorms are expected to develop this evening along and south
of the frontal boundary which runs from near KCGI to near KEVV at
this time. At this time it appears that the storms will be
discrete which could mean no impact at any one location. Ceilings
will drop to MVFR levels as the front starts to move east later
tonight. The MVFR ceilings will likely exit the area shortly after
sunrise, and then gusty northwest winds will be the main concern
during the day.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...GM
LONG TERM...MY
AVIATION...DRS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
642 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-031100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
642 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop near a cold front
and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight
hours. Severe storms with large hail, damaging winds and
tornadoes are possible. A tornado watch is in effect for all of
west Kentucky and southwest Indiana, as well as portions of
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois until 1 AM. Lightning and
locally heavy rainfall are also concerns with any thunderstorms
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared to activate as the storms approach
tonight.

DRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
559 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             METROPOLIS              37.15N 88.71W
03/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       MASSAC             IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHOTOGRAPH POSTED ON SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
603 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             PADUCAH                 37.07N 88.64W
03/02/2020  E0.88 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   STORM CHASER

&&

MY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
611 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     HAIL             3 NNE HUNTER            36.93N 90.84W
03/02/2020  E1.00 INCH       CARTER             MO   PUBLIC

&&

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
614 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             2 NNE PADUCAH           37.10N 88.62W
03/02/2020  E1.75 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   PUBLIC

            TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. RELAYED VIA
            TWITTER.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
618 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     HAIL             2 ENE PADUCAH           37.09N 88.60W
03/02/2020  E1.25 INCH       MCCRACKEN          KY   PUBLIC

            REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN PADUCAH. RELAYED VIA
            TWITTER. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

DWS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
623 PM CST MON MAR 2 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     TORNADO          3 NE HUNTER             36.93N 90.81W
03/02/2020                   CARTER             MO   PUBLIC

            SPOTTED AT 21 SOUTH AND HIGHWAY 60 WEST OF
            ELSINORE.

&&

PS