Alert archive / Oklahoma / Mesoscale Discussions in 2020
Mesoscale Discussion 9
The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 10, 2020, 6:30 AM CST for Harper County, Sumner County, Kansas; 19 counties in Oklahoma. It was in force for 60 min.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jan 10, 2020, 6:30 AM CST (12:30 UTC)
- Expired
- Jan 10, 2020, 7:30 AM CST
- In force
- 60 min
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Chance of a watch
- 40%
All 21 counties
Harper County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Alfalfa County, OK, Beckham County, OK, Blaine County, OK, Caddo County, OK, Canadian County, OK, Custer County, OK, Dewey County, OK, Ellis County, OK, Garfield County, OK, Grant County, OK, Greer County, OK, Kingfisher County, OK, Kiowa County, OK, Logan County, OK, Major County, OK, Roger Mills County, OK, Washita County, OK, Woods County, OK, Woodward County, OK
The radar
The Vance AFB radar (KVNX), 81 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The watches that followed
Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.
The nearest sounding before it
Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 163 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 927 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -10 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 595 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 61 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 208 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 234 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.1
- Supercell composite
- 5.1
The text
As transmitted.
969
ACUS11 KWNS 101231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101230
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-101330-
Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0630 AM CST Fri Jan 10 2020
Areas affected...Western OK...Far South-Central KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 101230Z - 101330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Elevated thunderstorms capable of producing severe hail
may develop across western OK and far south-central KS during the
next few hours. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis places a cold front from just
north of WLD (in south-central KS) southwestward into a low over
central portions of the eastern TX Panhandle. Low-level moisture
continues to return northward/northwestward across OK this morning
with surface dewpoints have increasing 2 to 4 deg F over the past 3
hours across much of western OK south of this front. The surface low
and front remained largely stationary during that time. However,
continued eastward progression of the deep shortwave trough over the
Southwest/northern Mexico will promote northeastward development of
the surface low along the front. Forcing for ascent near the low
(augmented by persistent warm-air advection) amidst the gradually
moistening/destabilization air mass will likely lead to thunderstorm
development.
Cold mid-level temperatures will support moderate instability with
any parcels lifted from around 800-900 mb. With the strong vertical
shear already in place, these elevated storms may become organized
enough to produce severe hail. Trends will be monitored for possible
watch issuance.
..Mosier/Grams.. 01/10/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 36250000 36909935 37219864 37339748 36719725 35689749
34859861 34649982 36250000SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 7:44 AM CST | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Allen, Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood and 8 more | 67 days |
| Jan 10, 9:12 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Chautauqua, Montgomery | 93 min |
| Jan 10, 12:11 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Bourbon, Cherokee, Crawford, Labette, Montgomery and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 10, 12:54 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atchison, Brown, Chase, Clay, Dickinson, Doniphan and 19 more | 6 hr |
| Jan 10, 1:21 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Butler, Chautauqua, Cowley, Elk, Greenwood, Labette and 5 more | 54 min |
| Jan 10, 10:42 AM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw and 38 more | 10 hr |
| Jan 10, 11:47 AM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Bryan, Choctaw | 118 min |
| Jan 10, 1:44 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Cherokee, Choctaw, Coal and 19 more | 91 min |
| Jan 10, 4:55 PM CST | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Atoka, Bryan, Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, LeFlore and 2 more | 2 hr |
| Jan 10, 5:34 PM CST | Tornado Watch | SPC | McCurtain | 11 hr |
Nearby
Mesoscale Discussions in Oklahoma, 2020Mesoscale Discussions in Kansas, 2020Every mesoscale discussion in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.