Mesoscale Discussion 13

Issued

Jan 10, 2020, 12:54 PM CST (18:54 UTC)

Expired

Jan 10, 2020, 7:00 PM CST

In force

6 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:57 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

606 
ACUS11 KWNS 101855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101854 
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-110100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0013
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 PM CST Fri Jan 10 2020

Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KS into far
southeastern NE...northwestern MO...and southern IA

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 101854Z - 110100Z

SUMMARY...A mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will likely occur
through the remainder of this afternoon and into the early evening.
Freezing rain rates in excess of 0.05 inch per three hours should
occur.

DISCUSSION...18Z surface analysis shows a shallow arctic cold front
advancing south-southeastward across the central Plains. A rapid
transition from isolated hail potential to freezing rain concerns
exists in a narrow corridor along and behind the front across parts
of central/eastern KS into southern IA this afternoon. An area of
ongoing precipitation associated with low-level warm advection
occurring above the surface cold front should continue shifting
northeastward over the next several hours. A pronounced warm nose in
roughly the 900-750 mb layer noted on the 12Z sounding from TOP will
be slow to erode, and complete melting aloft of frozen hydrometeors
should occur initially. Refreezing at the surface will occur behind
the cold front as temperatures rapidly fall into the mid to upper
20s. A few surface observations already show this process occurring,
with light to moderate freezing rain noted from central KS into
northeastern KS, far southeastern NE, and southern IA. Potential
exists for freezing rain rates to exceed 0.05 inch per 3 hours in a
narrow southwest to northeast corridor across this region through
the early evening, with some convective enhancement possible. A
gradual transition to sleet and eventually snow appears likely as
the warm nose aloft slowly erodes.

..Gleason.. 01/10/2020

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37829891 38409851 39879647 40739515 41439369 41749276
            41629213 41349199 40879229 40249328 39509447 38419621
            37889766 37629837 37829891

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The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.