Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Springfield, MO

138 
WWUS53 KSGF 031621
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1121 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOC225-031626-
/O.CAN.KSGF.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200503T1630Z/
Webster MO-
1121 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved 
eastwward out of Webster County ending the threat. 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3694 9291 3700 9273 3681 9274 3680 9277
      3675 9277 3670 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 293DEG 47KT 3673 9279 

$$

MOC043-067-213-031630-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200503T1630Z/
Douglas MO-Christian MO-Taney MO-
1121 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN AND NORTHERN TANEY
COUNTIES...

At 1116 AM CDT, scattered strong to severe storms extended from 
Goodhope to Garrison to near Branson West. Movement was to the east 
southeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Law enforcement.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Merriam Woods...                  Bull Creek...
Taneyville...                     Rome...
Garrison...                       Brownbranch...
Bradleyville...                   Goodhope...
Walnut Shade...                   

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3694 9291 3700 9273 3681 9274 3680 9277
      3675 9277 3670 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1616Z 293DEG 47KT 3673 9279 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Runnels

197 
WWUS53 KSGF 031621 RRA
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1121 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOC043-067-213-225-031630-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200503T1630Z/
Webster MO-Douglas MO-Christian MO-Taney MO-
1121 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...WESTERN
DOUGLAS...CHRISTIAN AND NORTHERN TANEY COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1130
AM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3702 9330 3709 9306 3728 9307 3731 9270
      3681 9274 3680 9277 3675 9277 3670 9331
TIME...MOT...LOC 1620Z 270DEG 47KT 3672 9276 

$$

Raberding

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A rather weak front was located across central Missouri this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary as short waves move through the zonal upper level
flow today and the front sags south.

The CAMS models are struggling a bit this morning, showing
showers developing where the radar was clear. However, there is
more confidence for shower and storm development as we approach
sunrise as a 500mb jet moves over Missouri and the front sags
into the Ozarks.

Model continue to suggest elevated instability will be sufficient
at up to around 1200-1500 J/kg but shear remains weak at less than
20kts. This would allow for some strong to isolated severe storms
this morning marginally severe hail and winds possible.

Temperatures today will be more seasonable than yesterday but will
still climb into the lower to middle 70s.

High pressure will move over Missouri This evening and overnight
which will bring a break in rain chances with a mild night
expected for the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The frontal boundary will lift back north during the day Monday
and bring the potential for severe weather to the region. With eh
return flow and increasing moisture, severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Models show from 1500 to 2500 j/kg of instability
during the day, though cloud cover may limit heating a bit. Steep
mid level lapse rates will be present and the overall shear
expected may allow for storms to initially develop as discrete
storms or supercells with large hail and damaging winds the main
concerns.

The wind fields and low level helicity values are not conducive
for tornado formation but it will remain a feature to monitor.
Especially where storms move along the front or surface
boundaries.

With the potential for very strong updrafts, hail to golf balls
in size or possibly larger will be possible. The system will also
be bring the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with may
produce some localized flooding in flood prone areas Monday night
into Early Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the week looks fairly quiet with cooler weather
expected. Daily highs will be about 5-10 degrees below normal as
we get into the end of the week where normal daily highs this
time of year are in the lower 70s. The cooler weather will be
thanks to northwesterly upper level flow and and rounds of
Canadian air sliding across the plains into the region.

A quick moving system should bring some rain to the Ozarks
Thursday night into Friday but other than this the period from
6-14 days from now looks rather quiet and cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A front will slowly sag south through the area today. An area of
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas will move east across the
Ozarks through this morning. This will bring MVFR ceilings as the
storms move across the area.

Once the storms move through the region, Ceilings will lift to
low end VFR for the remainder of today and into the overnight
hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A few storms are possible across southeastern Kansas and the southern
Missouri Ozarks through this morning. The strongest storms could
be capable of hail up to the size of quarters. Damaging straight
line winds will also be possible with the most intense storms. Not
all locations will be effected as coverage will be more scattered
in nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

More robust thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are very likely on Monday, with
large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
being primary hazards with this activity. Localized areas of
flooding can not be ruled out on Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
928 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0927 AM     HAIL             ORONOGO                 37.19N 94.47W
05/03/2020  E1.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
942 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     HAIL             PURCELL                 37.24N 94.43W
05/03/2020  E2.50 INCH       JASPER             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            30 MINUTES OF HAIL BETWEEN GOLF BALL AND
            TENNIS BALL SIZE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
945 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0939 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW CARTHAGE          37.18N 94.33W
05/03/2020                   JASPER             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT OF POWER POLE DOWN DUE TO
            THUNDERSTORM WINDS. UNABLE TO MEASURE WIND
            SPEEDS.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             2 S AVILLA              37.17N 94.13W
05/03/2020  E2.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF WINDOWS BROKEN OUT OF
            CAR.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
05/03/2020                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES
            DOWN ACROSS CARTHAGE.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     TSTM WND DMG     APPLETON CITY           38.19N 94.03W
05/03/2020                   ST. CLAIR          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52
            IN APPLETON CITY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TITUS