Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Springfield, MO

438 
WWUS53 KSGF 031420
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
920 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOC011-217-031445-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0084.000000T0000Z-200503T1445Z/
Barton MO-Vernon MO-
920 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 945 AM CDT
FOR BARTON AND VERNON COUNTIES...

At 920 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles south of Rich Hill to 7 miles west of Sheldon
to near Weir, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Tennis ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect 
         considerable tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to 
         mobile homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Prairie State Park...             Nevada...
Lamar...                          Golden City...
Liberal...                        Sheldon...
Mulberry...                       Nashville...
Mindenmines...                    Montevallo...
Walker...                         Schell City...
Bronaugh...                       Lamar Heights...
Moundville...                     Richards...
Milo...                           Deerfield...
Irwin...                          Burgess...

This includes Interstate 49 between mile markers 57 and 107.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 9461 3805 9424 3803 9423 3805 9421
      3805 9412 3804 9411 3803 9406 3735 9408
      3737 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 1420Z 279DEG 41KT 3798 9441 3769 9443 3732 9472 

HAIL...2.50IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Raberding

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A rather weak front was located across central Missouri this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary as short waves move through the zonal upper level
flow today and the front sags south.

The CAMS models are struggling a bit this morning, showing
showers developing where the radar was clear. However, there is
more confidence for shower and storm development as we approach
sunrise as a 500mb jet moves over Missouri and the front sags
into the Ozarks.

Model continue to suggest elevated instability will be sufficient
at up to around 1200-1500 J/kg but shear remains weak at less than
20kts. This would allow for some strong to isolated severe storms
this morning marginally severe hail and winds possible.

Temperatures today will be more seasonable than yesterday but will
still climb into the lower to middle 70s.

High pressure will move over Missouri This evening and overnight
which will bring a break in rain chances with a mild night
expected for the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The frontal boundary will lift back north during the day Monday
and bring the potential for severe weather to the region. With eh
return flow and increasing moisture, severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Models show from 1500 to 2500 j/kg of instability
during the day, though cloud cover may limit heating a bit. Steep
mid level lapse rates will be present and the overall shear
expected may allow for storms to initially develop as discrete
storms or supercells with large hail and damaging winds the main
concerns.

The wind fields and low level helicity values are not conducive
for tornado formation but it will remain a feature to monitor.
Especially where storms move along the front or surface
boundaries.

With the potential for very strong updrafts, hail to golf balls
in size or possibly larger will be possible. The system will also
be bring the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with may
produce some localized flooding in flood prone areas Monday night
into Early Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the week looks fairly quiet with cooler weather
expected. Daily highs will be about 5-10 degrees below normal as
we get into the end of the week where normal daily highs this
time of year are in the lower 70s. The cooler weather will be
thanks to northwesterly upper level flow and and rounds of
Canadian air sliding across the plains into the region.

A quick moving system should bring some rain to the Ozarks
Thursday night into Friday but other than this the period from
6-14 days from now looks rather quiet and cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A front will slowly sag south through the area today. An area of
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas will move east across the
Ozarks through this morning. This will bring MVFR ceilings as the
storms move across the area.

Once the storms move through the region, Ceilings will lift to
low end VFR for the remainder of today and into the overnight
hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A few storms are possible across southeastern Kansas and the southern
Missouri Ozarks through this morning. The strongest storms could
be capable of hail up to the size of quarters. Damaging straight
line winds will also be possible with the most intense storms. Not
all locations will be effected as coverage will be more scattered
in nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

More robust thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are very likely on Monday, with
large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
being primary hazards with this activity. Localized areas of
flooding can not be ruled out on Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch