Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Springfield, MO

831 
WWUS53 KSGF 031647 RRA
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1147 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOC091-215-031715-
/O.CON.KSGF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-200503T1715Z/
Howell MO-Texas MO-
1147 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 PM CDT
FOR HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS COUNTIES...

At 1147 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles north of Houston to 8 miles northeast of
Willow Springs to near West Plains, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
West Plains...                    Mountain View...
Willow Springs...                 Cabool...
Houston...                        Pomona...
Summersville...                   Raymondville...
South Fork...                     Brandsville...
Lanton...                         Pottersville...
Caulfield...                      Eunice...
Yukon...                          Clear Springs...
Solo...                           Pine Crest...
Simmons...                        Peace Valley...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3679 9212 3680 9210 3705 9209 3706 9211
      3743 9210 3742 9164 3650 9168 3650 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1647Z 266DEG 82KT 3741 9193 3706 9184 3673 9190 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Raberding

609 
WWUS53 KSGF 031711
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1211 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOC091-215-031721-
/O.EXP.KSGF.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-200503T1715Z/
Howell MO-Texas MO-
1211 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR HOWELL AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS
COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 PM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3679 9212 3680 9210 3705 9209 3706 9211
      3743 9210 3742 9164 3650 9168 3650 9212
TIME...MOT...LOC 1711Z 273DEG 46KT 3739 9156 3704 9148 3671 9154 

$$

Raberding

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
658 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A rather weak front was located across central Missouri this
morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along
this boundary as short waves move through the zonal upper level
flow today and the front sags south.

The CAMS models are struggling a bit this morning, showing
showers developing where the radar was clear. However, there is
more confidence for shower and storm development as we approach
sunrise as a 500mb jet moves over Missouri and the front sags
into the Ozarks.

Model continue to suggest elevated instability will be sufficient
at up to around 1200-1500 J/kg but shear remains weak at less than
20kts. This would allow for some strong to isolated severe storms
this morning marginally severe hail and winds possible.

Temperatures today will be more seasonable than yesterday but will
still climb into the lower to middle 70s.

High pressure will move over Missouri This evening and overnight
which will bring a break in rain chances with a mild night
expected for the region.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

The frontal boundary will lift back north during the day Monday
and bring the potential for severe weather to the region. With eh
return flow and increasing moisture, severe thunderstorms will be
possible. Models show from 1500 to 2500 j/kg of instability
during the day, though cloud cover may limit heating a bit. Steep
mid level lapse rates will be present and the overall shear
expected may allow for storms to initially develop as discrete
storms or supercells with large hail and damaging winds the main
concerns.

The wind fields and low level helicity values are not conducive
for tornado formation but it will remain a feature to monitor.
Especially where storms move along the front or surface
boundaries.

With the potential for very strong updrafts, hail to golf balls
in size or possibly larger will be possible. The system will also
be bring the potential for some localized heavy rainfall with may
produce some localized flooding in flood prone areas Monday night
into Early Tuesday morning.

The remainder of the week looks fairly quiet with cooler weather
expected. Daily highs will be about 5-10 degrees below normal as
we get into the end of the week where normal daily highs this
time of year are in the lower 70s. The cooler weather will be
thanks to northwesterly upper level flow and and rounds of
Canadian air sliding across the plains into the region.

A quick moving system should bring some rain to the Ozarks
Thursday night into Friday but other than this the period from
6-14 days from now looks rather quiet and cool.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

A front will slowly sag south through the area today. An area of
thunderstorms across eastern Kansas will move east across the
Ozarks through this morning. This will bring MVFR ceilings as the
storms move across the area.

Once the storms move through the region, Ceilings will lift to
low end VFR for the remainder of today and into the overnight
hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-041015-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
515 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

A few storms are possible across southeastern Kansas and the southern
Missouri Ozarks through this morning. The strongest storms could
be capable of hail up to the size of quarters. Damaging straight
line winds will also be possible with the most intense storms. Not
all locations will be effected as coverage will be more scattered
in nature.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

More robust thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon and
evening. Severe thunderstorms are very likely on Monday, with
large hail to the size of golf balls and damaging wind gusts
being primary hazards with this activity. Localized areas of
flooding can not be ruled out on Monday and Monday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
954 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 AM     HAIL             2 S AVILLA              37.17N 94.13W
05/03/2020  E2.75 INCH       JASPER             MO   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF WINDOWS BROKEN OUT OF
            CAR.

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1001 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 AM     TSTM WND DMG     CARTHAGE                37.18N 94.31W
05/03/2020                   JASPER             MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES
            DOWN ACROSS CARTHAGE.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1042 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 AM     TSTM WND DMG     APPLETON CITY           38.19N 94.03W
05/03/2020                   ST. CLAIR          MO   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE LIMBS DOWN MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 52
            IN APPLETON CITY. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

TITUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1048 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1047 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ROGERSVILLE             37.12N 93.06W
05/03/2020                   WEBSTER            MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            12 INCH TREE DOWN.

&&

SR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1059 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

MOZ069-070-081-082-092-031715-
Camden MO-Wright MO-Laclede MO-Pulaski MO-Texas MO-
1059 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN WRIGHT...LACLEDE...
PULASKI...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN CAMDEN COUNTIES UNTIL
1215 PM CDT...

At 1059 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles northwest of Lebanon to near Niangua.
Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Leonard Wood...              Lebanon...
Waynesville...                    St. Robert...
Richland...                       Morgan...
Stoutland...                      Plato...
Twin Bridges...                   Competition...
Devil's Elbow...                  Lynchburg...
Sleeper...                        Falcon...
Success...                        Laquey...
Roby...                           Ozark Springs...
Dry Knob...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 122 and 167.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 400 PM CDT for
central, south central and southwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 3744 9203 3742 9269 3783 9271 3797 9203
TIME...MOT...LOC 1559Z 243DEG 30KT 3777 9282 3741 9279

Raberding

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1109 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1038 AM     HAIL             1 W HOLLISTER           36.62N 93.24W
05/03/2020  M1.75 INCH       TANEY              MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            COLLEGE OF THE OZARKS; PICTURES.

&&