Severe Thunderstorm Warning 137, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
109 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The frontal boundary that pushed through the Ozarks yesterday
will lift north through the region today as a warm front. Models,
both synoptic and CAMS, have been rather consistent in developing
showers and elevated storms this morning along and north of the
front. The primary concern with this first round of elevated
storms will be large hail and some isolated severe wind gusts.

Steep lapse rates, ample moisture and good instability will
provide the fuel for hail to half dollars in size with the early
round of convection.

As the warm front lifts north, a deepening surface low will move
across the plains and ultimately push an inverted trough through the
Ozarks this afternoon and evening. Models do show a small scale
surface low that moves to the Southeast across far northeastern
Oklahoma and The Boston Mountains of northwestern Arkansas. In
advance of the trough, southerly flow will keep the ingredients
for severe weather for all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas.

MLCape values from 2000-3000 j/kg, steep lapse rates, cool air
aloft, a 40-50kts low level jet nosing into the region and ample
enough shear, bulk deep layer shear of 40-50kts, will provide
support for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with all modes of severe weather possible.

With little CAP expected storms may develop across far eastern
Kansas. Supercells may be the initial storm mode before
developing into a line of storms as it makes its way across the
Ozarks. Steep lapse rates and ample instability will allow for
strong updraft strengths and large hail potential with 2 inch hail
or larger possible. Additionally, damaging straight line winds
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Locations along and west
of Highway 49 may see the greatest chance for tornado development,
which may be tied to the initial storm mode this afternoon.

The storms will also be efficient rainfall producers with the
potential for 1-2 inch per hour rates. Models do show storms
moving at a good pace across the region through the event,
however, where storms move over the same areas, some isolated
flooding may occur. This will be especially possible for flood
prone locations.

Low pressure and thunderstorm activity will exit the region
shortly after midnight, with windy conditions filtering into the
area behind the storms. Northerly winds will also bring cooler air
into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

A cooler period of weather is expected for Tuesday and into next
weekend. Current indications are for daily highs to be 5-10
degrees below normal for this time of year. Normal highs for early
May are normally in the lower 70s. There may be some readings in
the upper 30s Friday and Saturday nights thanks to this returning
cooler air.

A system will move through the upper level northwesterly flow
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring the next chance for
rain and maybe some thunder.

The weekend looks cool and dry with another chance for rain coming
at the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Main focus will be on storms over the region this afternoon. First
round of storms has moved east of the TAF sites but the airmass
over the region will destabilize ahead of an approaching cold
front with another round of storms developing over eastern Kansas
this afternoon. Will carry tempo for thunderstorms/IFR mainly
between 04/22Z and 05/03Z.

Winds shift to the north by around 04-07Z with prevailing IFR
through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Terry

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1202 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051715-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
1202 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...Severe Storms Likely This Afternoon...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe storms will continue along and east of a line
from Lamar to Branson through early afternoon. The strongest
storms will be capable of producing hail to the size of golfballs
and wind gusts to 60 mph.

Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over
eastern Kansas this afternoon and move eastward into southeast
Kansas and the Missouri Ozarks through early evening. Large hail
up to three inches in diameter, damaging winds to 80 mph, and
tornadoes will all be possible.

The highest potential for tornadoes will be over far southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri mainly along and west of
Interstate 49. However, isolated tornadoes will be across all of
the Missouri Ozarks.

Localized areas of flooding may occur where storms move over the
same locations, as rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will
be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon over
southeast Kansas and southwest Missouri. Spotter activation may be
needed into early evening over the eastern Missouri Ozarks.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Terry

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1203 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 PM     HAIL             GREENFIELD              37.42N 93.85W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       DADE               MO   911 CALL CENTER

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1207 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HAIL             BILLINGS                37.07N 93.55W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       CHRISTIAN          MO   PUBLIC

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BATTLEFIELD       37.12N 93.34W
05/04/2020  E0.88 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1215 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1214 PM     HAIL             2 ENE BATTLEFIELD       37.12N 93.34W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1224 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HAIL             1 SE GALLOWAY           37.13N 93.22W
05/04/2020  E1.75 INCH       GREENE             MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1228 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1227 PM     HAIL             3 W ROGERSVILLE         37.12N 93.11W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       GREENE             MO   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

SR