River Flood Warning 69, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
702 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

The frontal boundary that pushed through the Ozarks yesterday
will lift north through the region today as a warm front. Models,
both synoptic and CAMS, have been rather consistent in developing
showers and elevated storms this morning along and north of the
front. The primary concern with this first round of elevated
storms will be large hail and some isolated severe wind gusts.

Steep lapse rates, ample moisture and good instability will
provide the fuel for hail to half dollars in size with the early
round of convection.

As the warm front lifts north, a deepening surface low will move
across the plains and ultimately push an inverted trough through the
Ozarks this afternoon and evening. Models do show a small scale
surface low that moves to the Southeast across far northeastern
Oklahoma and The Boston Mountains of northwestern Arkansas. In
advance of the trough, southerly flow will keep the ingredients
for severe weather for all of the Missouri Ozarks and southeastern
Kansas.

MLCape values from 2000-3000 j/kg, steep lapse rates, cool air
aloft, a 40-50kts low level jet nosing into the region and ample
enough shear, bulk deep layer shear of 40-50kts, will provide
support for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and
evening with all modes of severe weather possible.

With little CAP expected storms may develop across far eastern
Kansas. Supercells may be the initial storm mode before
developing into a line of storms as it makes its way across the
Ozarks. Steep lapse rates and ample instability will allow for
strong updraft strengths and large hail potential with 2 inch hail
or larger possible. Additionally, damaging straight line winds
and isolated tornadoes will be possible. Locations along and west
of Highway 49 may see the greatest chance for tornado development,
which may be tied to the initial storm mode this afternoon.

The storms will also be efficient rainfall producers with the
potential for 1-2 inch per hour rates. Models do show storms
moving at a good pace across the region through the event,
however, where storms move over the same areas, some isolated
flooding may occur. This will be especially possible for flood
prone locations.

Low pressure and thunderstorm activity will exit the region
shortly after midnight, with windy conditions filtering into the
area behind the storms. Northerly winds will also bring cooler air
into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

A cooler period of weather is expected for Tuesday and into next
weekend. Current indications are for daily highs to be 5-10
degrees below normal for this time of year. Normal highs for early
May are normally in the lower 70s. There may be some readings in
the upper 30s Friday and Saturday nights thanks to this returning
cooler air.

A system will move through the upper level northwesterly flow
Thursday night into Friday. This will bring the next chance for
rain and maybe some thunder.

The weekend looks cool and dry with another chance for rain coming
at the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 658 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

Aviators flying into the Ozarks will contend with shower and
thunderstorm development today. Initially this morning, flight
conditions will be VFR. However, as storms develop, MVFR ceilings
and visibilities will occur. Winds will shift to the North behind
a cold front this evening with low IFR ceilings filtering into
the area for the overnight hours.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Hatch
LONG TERM...Hatch
AVIATION...Hatch

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
627 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-051130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
627 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Limited thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Limited flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this morning.
A few of these storms may produce large hail to the size of half
dollars and isolated damaging winds to 60 mph.

Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are expected again late
this afternoon and evening. Large hail around two inches in size,
damaging winds to 60 mph, and tornadoes will all be possible.

The highest potential for tornadoes will be over far southeast
Kansas into southwest Missouri mainly along and west of Interstate
49. However, all of the Missouri may see a tornado as well.

Localized areas of flooding cannot be ruled out through today
especially where storms move over the same locations as rainfall
rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Showers and a few thunderstorms possible Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will be needed today and tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Hatch