River Flood Warning 47, NWS Springfield, MO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Showers and thunderstorms were moving into southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri early this morning as deep southwest mid level
has developed across the central US ahead of a large storm system
out west. A 50kt 850mb llj was pumping an abundant amount of
moisture (PW values 1.5in) into the area. A subtle mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) was located just north of Vinita, Oklahoma
and was moving east/northeast towards the area. This will
continue to enhance the cluster of showers and thunderstorms this
morning as it moves northeast through the area. Rain rates will be
rather efficient (1 inch+ per hour). Soils are already saturated
and with flash flood guidance values low, the flash flood threat
is elevated and will be closely monitored this morning. The Flash
Flood Watch will remain in effect today for locations generally
south of Highway 54.

A second area of showers and thunderstorms southwest of Oklahoma
city will also continue to move northeast and will likely make it
up into the area by mid morning. Instability continues to increase
across the area and with the strong low level jet, could see a
strong to severe storm with damaging winds and small hail this
morning, however widespread severe weather is not expected with
this early morning activity. Some locally dense fog has developed
across south central Missouri however with the rain moving in,
visibilities should improve.

As we get into the mid to late morning time frame and beyond...
the upper level low will continue to move slowly northeast through
Colorado with a 120kt 300mb jet nosing into Oklahoma. Therefore
plenty of lift will continue to approach the area. Surface low
pressure across western Kansas will continue to deepen with gusty
southerly winds developing. The coverage of showers and storms
will likely begin to decrease by late morning however as
instability increases, storms may begin to become surface based,
especially heading into the afternoon hours. RAP model soundings
for areas along and east of US highway 65 this afternoon have
between 1000-2000 j/kg of ML CAPE along with 50-60kts of effective
bulk shear and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. Therefore
supercells with large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging winds
will be possible. While the flow above 1 km is fairly
unidirectional, surface winds will at least initially be southerly
before veering southwesterly by afternoon, therefore there will
be a risk for tornadoes with SRH's around 250m2s2. At this time,
high res models generally point to two areas of concern. One area
being across the Truman Lake region with late morning storms
possibly becoming strong to severe as they exit our area to the
north. The other area being east of US Highway 65 and south of
Interstate 44 (south central Missouri). This region will have the
highest instability and shear for supercells. Storms will likely
be exiting the area by late evening (roughly 8-10pm ish). We will
be releasing a special balloon sounding today to assess the
atmosphere. A few scattered showers/storms will also be possible
overnight however not expecting those to be severe at this time.

Non thunderstorm southwest winds will gust up to 45mph today,
especially west of Springfield. Conditions will become close to
Wind Advisory criteria, however confidence was not quite high
enough to issue at this time. Temps will jump into the 70s, even
without much sun given the warm air advection. If clouds clear
quicker then highs could be too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The actual cold front will move through during the early morning
hours Friday with cold air advection and perhaps some showers
occuring Friday morning/afternoon. Temps will be about 30 degrees
cooler on Friday with most places in the 40s. High pressure will
move north of the area Friday night and Saturday with a temps
Saturday morning in the upper 20s.

A quick moving system approaches Sunday, brining the next chance
of precip. Another shortwave approaches by Tuesday with more
rainfall. Active weather pattern continues next week as temps warm
some each day...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Unsettled first six hours of the TAF period with several rounds of
showers and storms moving through which will drop conditions to
IFR for brief times. Should see a improvement by 18z however
isolated to scattered storms will be possible this afternoon,
especially at BBG and SGF. Surface winds will become quite gusty
from late morning into the afternoon out of the southwest with
gusts over 30kts likely. Low level wind shear will be possible
overnight into early Friday morning ahead of a cold front that
will move through at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ068>071-077>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
429 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
429 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the area
this morning. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts up
to 50 mph and small hail will be possible with the strongest
storms. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding of creeks, streams and
low water crossings will also be possible across the area as
multiple rounds of rainfall occur this morning. Areas of fog will
reduce visibilities to one mile at times across south central
Missouri this morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will then be possible from late
morning into the afternoon and early evening. While the entire
area has a chance for a severe storm, the highest chances look to
occur east of Highway 65 and south of Interstate 44. Damaging
winds, large hail to the size of golf balls and tornadoes will be
possible in the strongest storms. The tornado threat is limited at
this time and mainly confined to areas along and east of Highway
63 in the eastern Ozarks.

Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning and afternoon
with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible, especially west of
Highway 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

 There is a slight chance for more thunderstorms early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will likely be needed today for flooding and
 severe reports.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
706 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 N FORDLAND            37.19N 92.94W
03/19/2020                   WEBSTER            MO   PUBLIC

            STATE HIGHWAY FF IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING
            AT PANTHER CREEK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
734 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 WNW ROGERSVILLE       37.13N 93.12W
03/19/2020                   GREENE             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY 125 IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
736 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0729 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S ROGERSVILLE         37.07N 93.05W
03/19/2020                   CHRISTIAN          MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY U IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT
            PEDELO CREEK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
738 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 WSW EUDORA            37.48N 93.56W
03/19/2020                   POLK               MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY W IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING AT
            TURKEY CREEK.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
739 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 N EBENEZER            37.39N 93.31W
03/19/2020                   GREENE             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            STATE HIGHWAY CC IS CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
744 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0740 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE REEDS             37.15N 94.16W
03/19/2020                   JASPER             MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            HIGHWAY 37 IS CLOSED AT THE LOW WATER
            CROSSING AT THE SPRING RIVER DUE TO FLOODING
            OVER THE ROADWAY.

&&

CKR