Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Springfield, MO

039 
WGUS73 KSGF 191454
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
954 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOC077-225-229-191730-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Webster MO-Wright MO-Greene MO-
954 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT FOR
WEBSTER...WRIGHT AND GREENE COUNTIES...

At 951 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated gauges indicated that up 
to two inches of rain have already fallen. Flash flooding is already 
occurring. Numerous road closures due to flooding were reported over 
northern Greene, southeast Greene and western Webster Counties.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Route E north of Highway 38 at The Gasconade River...
Route CC west of Fair Grove at The Pomme De Terre River...
Scenic Avenue in southwest Springfield...
Route C at The Little Sac River north of Strafford...
and Greenwood Road at The Pomme de Terre Headwaters.

Additional rainfall amounts of one to two inches are possible in the 
warned area through early afternoon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3710 9360 3728 9361 3729 9363 3742 9362
      3742 9308 3749 9307 3749 9305 3747 9225
      3706 9225

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR AND GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Terry

472 
WGUS73 KSGF 191722
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOC077-225-229-191731-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0015.000000T0000Z-200319T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Webster MO-Wright MO-Greene MO-
1222 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR WEBSTER...WRIGHT AND GREENE COUNTIES
WILL EXPIRE AT 1230 PM CDT...

The Flash Flood Warning has been replaced with a Flood Warning as 
continued runoff will keep flooding over the area through much of 
the day. Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3710 9360 3728 9361 3729 9363 3742 9362
      3742 9308 3749 9307 3749 9305 3747 9225
      3706 9225

$$

Terry

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
609 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...12Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Showers and thunderstorms were moving into southeast Kansas and
southwest Missouri early this morning as deep southwest mid level
has developed across the central US ahead of a large storm system
out west. A 50kt 850mb llj was pumping an abundant amount of
moisture (PW values 1.5in) into the area. A subtle mesoscale
convective vortex (MCV) was located just north of Vinita, Oklahoma
and was moving east/northeast towards the area. This will
continue to enhance the cluster of showers and thunderstorms this
morning as it moves northeast through the area. Rain rates will be
rather efficient (1 inch+ per hour). Soils are already saturated
and with flash flood guidance values low, the flash flood threat
is elevated and will be closely monitored this morning. The Flash
Flood Watch will remain in effect today for locations generally
south of Highway 54.

A second area of showers and thunderstorms southwest of Oklahoma
city will also continue to move northeast and will likely make it
up into the area by mid morning. Instability continues to increase
across the area and with the strong low level jet, could see a
strong to severe storm with damaging winds and small hail this
morning, however widespread severe weather is not expected with
this early morning activity. Some locally dense fog has developed
across south central Missouri however with the rain moving in,
visibilities should improve.

As we get into the mid to late morning time frame and beyond...
the upper level low will continue to move slowly northeast through
Colorado with a 120kt 300mb jet nosing into Oklahoma. Therefore
plenty of lift will continue to approach the area. Surface low
pressure across western Kansas will continue to deepen with gusty
southerly winds developing. The coverage of showers and storms
will likely begin to decrease by late morning however as
instability increases, storms may begin to become surface based,
especially heading into the afternoon hours. RAP model soundings
for areas along and east of US highway 65 this afternoon have
between 1000-2000 j/kg of ML CAPE along with 50-60kts of effective
bulk shear and mid level lapse rates around 7C/km. Therefore
supercells with large hail (up to golf balls) and damaging winds
will be possible. While the flow above 1 km is fairly
unidirectional, surface winds will at least initially be southerly
before veering southwesterly by afternoon, therefore there will
be a risk for tornadoes with SRH's around 250m2s2. At this time,
high res models generally point to two areas of concern. One area
being across the Truman Lake region with late morning storms
possibly becoming strong to severe as they exit our area to the
north. The other area being east of US Highway 65 and south of
Interstate 44 (south central Missouri). This region will have the
highest instability and shear for supercells. Storms will likely
be exiting the area by late evening (roughly 8-10pm ish). We will
be releasing a special balloon sounding today to assess the
atmosphere. A few scattered showers/storms will also be possible
overnight however not expecting those to be severe at this time.

Non thunderstorm southwest winds will gust up to 45mph today,
especially west of Springfield. Conditions will become close to
Wind Advisory criteria, however confidence was not quite high
enough to issue at this time. Temps will jump into the 70s, even
without much sun given the warm air advection. If clouds clear
quicker then highs could be too cool.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

The actual cold front will move through during the early morning
hours Friday with cold air advection and perhaps some showers
occuring Friday morning/afternoon. Temps will be about 30 degrees
cooler on Friday with most places in the 40s. High pressure will
move north of the area Friday night and Saturday with a temps
Saturday morning in the upper 20s.

A quick moving system approaches Sunday, brining the next chance
of precip. Another shortwave approaches by Tuesday with more
rainfall. Active weather pattern continues next week as temps warm
some each day...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

Unsettled first six hours of the TAF period with several rounds of
showers and storms moving through which will drop conditions to
IFR for brief times. Should see a improvement by 18z however
isolated to scattered storms will be possible this afternoon,
especially at BBG and SGF. Surface winds will become quite gusty
from late morning into the afternoon out of the southwest with
gusts over 30kts likely. Low level wind shear will be possible
overnight into early Friday morning ahead of a cold front that
will move through at the end of the TAF period.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for MOZ068>071-077>083-
     088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ097-101.

&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Burchfield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
429 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-200930-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
429 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited tornado risk.
  Elevated hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated flooding risk.
  Significant lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.
  Elevated fog risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the area
this morning. Frequent cloud to ground lightning, wind gusts up
to 50 mph and small hail will be possible with the strongest
storms. Heavy rainfall leading to flooding of creeks, streams and
low water crossings will also be possible across the area as
multiple rounds of rainfall occur this morning. Areas of fog will
reduce visibilities to one mile at times across south central
Missouri this morning.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will then be possible from late
morning into the afternoon and early evening. While the entire
area has a chance for a severe storm, the highest chances look to
occur east of Highway 65 and south of Interstate 44. Damaging
winds, large hail to the size of golf balls and tornadoes will be
possible in the strongest storms. The tornado threat is limited at
this time and mainly confined to areas along and east of Highway
63 in the eastern Ozarks.

Southerly winds will become gusty by late morning and afternoon
with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph possible, especially west of
Highway 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

 There is a slight chance for more thunderstorms early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

 Spotter activation will likely be needed today for flooding and
 severe reports.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOZ091-095-096-191045-
Douglas MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-
504 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WEBSTER...NORTHWESTERN
DOUGLAS AND EASTERN CHRISTIAN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 AM CDT...

At 504 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sparta, or near Ozark, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ozark...                          Rogersville...
Seymour...                        Sparta...
Fordland...                       Diggins...
Oldfield...                       Elkhead...
Bruner...                         Keltner...
Christian Center...               Chadwick...
Linden...                         Dogwood...

LAT...LON 3686 9320 3707 9321 3709 9317 3709 9307
      3716 9306 3732 9280 3719 9268 3701 9269
TIME...MOT...LOC 1004Z 238DEG 27KT 3695 9312

Rothstein

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
517 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

MOZ068-078>080-089-090-094-191100-
Cedar MO-Dallas MO-Polk MO-Greene MO-Dade MO-Hickory MO-Lawrence MO-
517 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HICKORY...WESTERN DALLAS...
SOUTHEASTERN CEDAR...POLK...NORTHEASTERN LAWRENCE...NORTHERN GREENE
AND EASTERN DADE COUNTIES UNTIL 600 AM CDT...

At 517 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Humansville to 7 miles south of Fair Play
to near Miller. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bolivar...                        Pomme de Terre Lake...
Pomme De Terre State Park...      Stockton Lake...
Willard...                        Buffalo...
Ash Grove...                      Fair Grove...
Pittsburg...                      Humansville...
Walnut Grove...                   Polk...
Pleasant Hope...                  Fair Play...
Hermitage...                      Weaubleau...
Urbana...                         Morrisville...
Wheatland...                      Everton...

LAT...LON 3741 9308 3721 9380 3748 9366 3777 9370
      3783 9361 3783 9357 3786 9357 3807 9326
      3806 9306
TIME...MOT...LOC 1017Z 229DEG 37KT 3776 9364 3753 9360 3725 9380

Rothstein

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
557 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0553 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WNW EAGLE ROCK        36.58N 93.83W
03/19/2020                   BARRY              MO   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            FLOODING IS OCCURRING AT ROARING RIVER STATE
            PARK. RIVER GAGE HAS RISEN ABOUT THREE FEET.
            PARK SERVICE IS PREPARING FOR NEXT ROUND OF
            RAIN AND NOTIFYING CAMPERS.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
622 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NNW PONCE DE LEON     36.94N 93.39W
03/19/2020                   STONE              MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CAR STUCK IN WATER NEAR HOOTEN TOWN ACCESS
            TO THE JAMES RIVER.

&&

MMT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
626 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 AM     FLASH FLOOD      RACINE                  36.90N 94.53W
03/19/2020                   NEWTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER THE ROADWAY (UNKNOWN DEPTH) NEAR
            THE INTERSECTION OF STATE HIGHWAY 86 AND
            STATE HIGHWAY CC.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
627 AM CDT THU MAR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0626 AM     FLASH FLOOD      SENECA                  36.84N 94.61W
03/19/2020                   NEWTON             MO   911 CALL CENTER

            WATER OVER THE ROAD WAY AT TWO INTERSECTIONS
            IN SENECA. BOTH ROADWAYS ARE CLOSED.

&&

MB