Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Springfield, MO

195 
WGUS73 KSGF 171644
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1144 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

MOC213-171654-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0031.000000T0000Z-200517T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Taney MO-
1144 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR TANEY COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM
CDT SUNDAY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. An Areal Flood Warning will be issued to replace the 
Flash Flood Warning as flooding is ongoing across the warned area. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3681 9316 3680 9277 3665 9276 3650 9278
      3650 9312

$$

Hatch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
259 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

Widespread rainfall continues early this morning along and
southeast of Interstate 44 as plenty of lift and moisture streams
across the area. The energy across western Arkansas will continue
to become more sheared as it moves east/northeast, with a sharp
cutoff to the precip on the far northwest side of the precip
shield. The area of most concern for flooding will continue to be
generally southeast of I-44 through the early morning hours where
additional 1-3 inches of rain will occur across already saturated
soils, leading to almost 100% runoff. The Flash Flood Watch will
remain in effect. Only weak instability exists therefore lightning
will be limited with most places not experiencing any.

The rain will begin to move slowly more east and out of south
central Missouri by late afternoon or early evening, locations
further west should see precip end by mid day to early afternoon.
Winds will become northwesterly and gusty this afternoon however
temps will likely approach 70 by late afternoon/early evening.

While skies may clear briefly this evening as drier mid/upper
level moves in, low level clouds/moisture will return overnight
from the north as energy moves down from Iowa. Some patchy fog
will also be possible however wind speeds may stay up enough to
keep it from becoming dense. Temps will likely fall to near 50.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 208 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

The upper level low will drop sse along the Mississippi River
during the day Monday, therefore northwest winds and ample low
level clouds will linger most if not all day. Enough lift and
moisture in the low levels, combined with a favorable northwest
wind intersecting the plateau will likely contribute to drizzle or
light rain showers at times during the day, most likely across
central Missouri and the eastern Ozarks. Highs will be kept down
in the lower 60s at most locations.

A blocking pattern looks likely across the CONUS for the remainder
of the week with a large cut off low remaining across the
Tennessee and Ohio valleys and another low across the west.
Therefore we should see temperatures warm some each day with 70s
likely Tuesday through Thursday and then 80s possible Friday and
Saturday.

There could be enough weakness in the pattern by late Thursday
and Friday for some slight chances of showers and storms however
slightly higher chances hold off until the weekend as southwest
flow attempts to redevelop across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Next round of moderate to heavy rain was pushing into the area as
upper level axis was lifting northwest into south central MO. This
area of rain will mainly affect areas southeast of I44 tonight as
another upper level wave begins to move in from the northwest and
shift the moisture axis eastward. For aviation purposes, this area
of showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect the BBG terminal
and SGF will be on the western fringes. BBG will likely dip into
IFR conditions with the convection and SGF/JLN will likely have
some MVFR conditions. Things should start to improve during the
afternoon hours on Sunday, however a northwest wind gusting to 25
kts will be possible behind the frontal boundary. VFR conditions
are expected by mid to late afternoon and thereafter.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT this morning for MOZ070-071-
     081>083-091-092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burchfield
LONG TERM...Burchfield
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
345 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180845-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
345 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Widespread rain will continue through the morning before ending
from west to east this afternoon. Flooding of low water
crossings, creeks and rivers will remain a concern, mainly along
and southeast of Interstate 44. A few lightning strikes are
possible east of Highway 65 today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Chances for showers and storms return late in the week and into
the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Burchfield