Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Springfield, MO

221 
WGUS73 KSGF 170957
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
457 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

MOC043-067-105-153-215-225-229-171645-
/O.CON.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200517T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ozark MO-Webster MO-Douglas MO-Wright MO-Christian MO-Laclede MO-
Texas MO-
457 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 AM CDT SUNDAY
FOR OZARK...SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...DOUGLAS...WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN
CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE AND TEXAS COUNTIES...

At 454 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already 
fallen. An additional one to two inches of rainfall is expected 
between 5 AM and 8 AM, with the heaviest rain falling from 
Thornfield into Ava and Mansfield. Flash flooding is ongoing or 
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

This warning includes but is not limited to the following low water
crossings...
Route E north of Highway 38 at The Gasconade River...
Route FF at Hunter Creek east of Ava...
Route FF at Turkey Creek east of Ava...
Route Y at Cowskin Creek 3 miles west of Ava...
and Highway 181 at Bryant Creek northeast of Sycamore.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3681 9277 3682 9316 3748 9252 3760 9225
      3760 9177 3742 9175 3705 9209 3679 9210
      3679 9212 3650 9212 3650 9277

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

Schaumann

715 
WGUS73 KSGF 171640
FFSSGF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1140 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

MOC043-067-105-153-215-225-229-171647-
/O.EXP.KSGF.FF.W.0030.000000T0000Z-200517T1645Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Ozark MO-Webster MO-Douglas MO-Wright MO-Christian MO-Laclede MO-
Texas MO-
1140 AM CDT Sun May 17 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR OZARK...SOUTHEASTERN WEBSTER...
DOUGLAS...WRIGHT...SOUTHEASTERN CHRISTIAN...SOUTHEASTERN LACLEDE AND
TEXAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 1145 AM CDT SUNDAY...

The heavy rain has ended. Flash flooding is no longer expected to 
pose a threat. An Areal Flood Warning will be issued to replace the 
Flash Flood Warning as flooding is ongoing across the warned 
area. 
Please continue to heed any remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 3681 9277 3682 9316 3748 9252 3760 9225
      3760 9177 3742 9175 3705 9209 3679 9210
      3679 9212 3650 9212 3650 9277

$$

Hatch

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1152 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Main concern will be showers/thunderstorms with heavy rain and
additional flooding potential tonight into Sunday. The good news
is a front should sweep through with drier weather late Sunday and
for much of the upcoming week.

A weak upper level disturbance now over central MO has produced
an area of multicell-scattered convection over the eastern cwfa.
High moisture content in the atmosphere/precipitable water has led
to efficient/heavy rain producing cells that have produced
localized flooding. More scattered showers/storms are expected
this afternoon into the evening. HRRR/HRRR v4 cams seem to be
handling the general picture okay. MLcape values of around 1000
j/kg this afternoon with sfc temperatures in the mid 70s and
modest shear could produce a stronger storm or two with hail, but
overall the focus will be more on localized heavy rain and flash
flooding. The heavy rain/flooding will not be widespread, but it
cold be locally intense.

For tonight, an upper low will lift north into western AR with an
upper level shear axis becoming better defined over the MO Ozarks.
Precip is expected to shift northeast along and east of the shear
axis with time tonight with some additional heavy rain potential
east of a Cassville to Springfield to Osage Beach line through
early Sunday.

Finally a northern stream shortwave will support a cold frontal
passage late tonight and Sunday morning finally putting an end to
the rain. Gusty northwest winds will occur behind the front, but
nothing overly impactful.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Temperatures will be cool to start the period with an upper level
low cutting off to our east. A highly amplified blocking upper
level pattern over the CONUS will "slow the weather down a bit"
with a moderating temperatures as a slow moving upper level ridge
builds into our area later in the week. Overall it looks dry for
the work week. We have some modest rain chances late in the week
as the blocking pattern breaks down, but right now nothing highly
impactful is expected for this period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1141 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

Next round of moderate to heavy rain was pushing into the area as
upper level axis was lifting northwest into south central MO. This
area of rain will mainly affect areas southeast of I44 tonight as
another upper level wave begins to move in from the northwest and
shift the moisture axis eastward. For aviation purposes, this area
of showers and thunderstorms will mainly affect the BBG terminal
and SGF will be on the western fringes. BBG will likely dip into
IFR conditions with the convection and SGF/JLN will likely have
some MVFR conditions. Things should start to improve during the
afternoon hours on Sunday, however a northwest wind gusting to 25
kts will be possible behind the frontal boundary. VFR conditions
are expected by mid to late afternoon and thereafter.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch until 11 AM CDT Sunday for MOZ070-071-081>083-
     091-092-095>098-103>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DSA
LONG TERM...DSA
AVIATION...Lindenberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
756 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-180100-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
756 PM CDT Sat May 16 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated flooding risk.
  Limited lightning risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few thunderstorms with heavy rain will remain
possible over the area tonight. The next round of heavier rain
will start pushing north into southern Missouri from Arkansas
later this evening and overnight.

Due to already saturated soils from earlier heavy rain, some
flooding will be possible, especially over south central Missouri
tonight into Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Rain is expected to end from west to east Sunday morning and
early in the afternoon as a cold front moves through the area.
Ongoing residual flooding will be likely in some areas Sunday and
Sunday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Lindenberg