Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front remains stalled today into early Friday across
the area, before pushing southeast Saturday. High pressure
builds in this weekend with return to typical summer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon in the
mountains west of the Blue Ridge and then to our east further
out into the piedmont with a lull for the local area east of the
Ridge. Storms have been prolific rain producers with a couple of
storms pulsing up enough to generate some large hail. Anticipate
the primary threat through this evening will reside with flash
flood potential with a secondary threat of isolated wind damage
and possibly large hail. Anticipate activity will eventually
develop east of the Ridge as outflow boundaries converge to
generate new convection into early tonight before activity
wanes late. Friday may present a similar situation to today as
the axis of the upper trof still remains to our west.

Conditions will be seasonably warm though on the humid side.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70 east of the
Blue Ridge, low to mid 60s west. Highs tomorrow will be in the
mid/upper 80s east, mid/upper 70s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper level trough moves through the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into
Saturday, bringing in a surface high. Despite this change in
pattern, a few isolated storms remain possible for Saturday
afternoon, given steep lapse rates. Any development will be
difficult to pull off though, given dry air aloft.

A weak disturbance Sunday will work with the slowly returning
moisture behind a stalled front to our south to allow for some
isolated showers and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures by this
point start to make their aim at returning to above average, with
areas east of the Piedmont forecast to hit 90 degrees as 850 temps
swell to +20C in the afternoons.

Monday will be a near repeat to Sunday with diurnal heating working
with a weak disturbance to try and get convection going in the
afternoon, but staying mostly isolated. Temperatures also continue
their gradual warming.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Typical summertime pattern remains in place through the forecast
period with a broad areas of high pressure sticking to the southern
U.S. All the while, the jet stream remains tied up in Canada with a
trough attempting to dig down into the Great Lakes region. This
pattern will keep diurnal convection going through next work week.
All the while, the region of high pressure will help with transport
of an above average temperature airmass that will be keeping us
toasty. The foothills and Piedmont will continue to see 90s while
the mountains warm to the 80s. Lows range in the 70s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Conditions will generally be VFR in a convective environment
into this evening. Will use VCTS and amend to a tempo as radar
trends dictate. Expect convection will gradually wane this
evening, followed by development of MVFR/IFR conditions in
stratus and fog overnight. Any airfield that gets a dousing of
rain is likely to sink to LIFR by daybreak.

Conditions improve to VFR later Friday morning with a break in
the convection before redevelopment occurs friday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure builds into the weekend with lesser chances of
storms. Pattern should be more typical of summer into Monday
with scattered afternoon/evening storms. Overall VFR outside
storms and late night valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...MBS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-070900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are
expected into this evening. Flash flooding is possible, and some
storms may become severe with isolated wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
717 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ046-059-070000-
Charlotte-Appomattox-
717 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
SOUTHEASTERN APPOMATTOX AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLOTTE COUNTIES...

At 717 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Red House,
moving northeast at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Phenix...
Red House...
Pamplin City...
Madisonville...
Hixburg...
Wren...
and Evergreen.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3732 7863 3726 7868 3720 7869 3719 7868
      3719 7864 3701 7874 3709 7887 3720 7882
      3721 7886 3724 7886 3745 7870 3743 7868
      3742 7864 3738 7863 3739 7861 3738 7859
      3734 7860
TIME...MOT...LOC 2317Z 215DEG 17KT 3715 7877

VFJ