Special Weather Statement, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
804 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front remains stalled across the piedmont through
tonight, then shifts east to the coast Friday. Surface high
builds into the area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

A frontal boundary continues to remain stalled over the area
today as a trough continues to dig into the Ohio Valley.
Meanwhile, coastal convection this AM has produced several
boundaries to work with that are now in the Piedmont. Together,
the front and these boundaries are starting to ignite convection
both across the mountains, and down into the southern Piedmont.
As convection progresses, continued boundary production will
work with daytime heating and returning moisture to keep
thunderstorm development going into the early evening after
sunset at least.

Showers and thunderstorms will be slow to diminish tonight with
another way traveling along the stalled front works with
lingering boundaries from the afternoon. The primary
concentration will be along the spine of the Blue Ridge and out
into the foothills and western Piedmont. After midnight, rain
chances gradually diminish as low level clouds take over much
of the Piedmont. Meanwhile, a saturated airmass will result in
ample fog development for parts of the west.

Another upper level trough swings through the Ohio Valley for
Thursday, once again sparking convection for during the day.
Isolated severe and flood threat looks better for Thursday than
today with more moisture to work with (PWATs look to exceed
1.8" east of the Blue Ridge during the afternoon). CAMs indicate
that convection initiation will be sooner Thursday, starting
around noon, rather than waiting around into the early
afternoon.

Temperatures remain close to average for the afternoon both
today and tomorrow. Tonight will be slightly warmer, with only
the higher elevations dropping into the 50s as cloud cover for
many will help keep things insulated.

Forecast confidence is medium to high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

An upper level trough will pass overhead Friday and off the coast by
Saturday. This will result in a period of synoptic lift Friday,
followed by a westerly wind aloft with increasing subsidence Friday
night and Saturday.  The best chance for showers/storms Friday is
expected to be from the Blue Ridge east associated with the upper
trough...and only an isolated threat for Saturday per a downslope
westerly wind aloft and more subsidence.  Temperatures will continue
to be near the seasonal norm through Saturday, although Saturday
should be a degree or two warmer compared to Friday per fewer cloud
elements.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Wednesday...

The large scale pattern over the CONUS will feature a typical
summertime setup with a broad ridge across the southern CONUS and
the jet stream contracted to Canada. A plume of warming temperatures
aloft is forecast from the Great Plains northeast into the Midwest
and Ohio Valley and impinging the Mid-Atlantic from the northwest.
The models become very noisy with respect to tracking the
convectively induced short wave vorticies across the northern
periphery of the upper level subtropical ridge...confidence low as
to whether any of these features reach our forecast area to produce
a bonafide MCS. For our forecast area the greater forecast
confidence resides with the diurnal cycle and the typical
thundershower development across the mountains per the afternoon
differential heating.  Temperatures are expected to warm above
normal by about 4-7 degrees...with highs in the 90s for the
foothills and piedmont and into the 80s across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 700 PM EDT Wednesday...

Scattered thunderstorms continue to form around the region, but none
currently threaten a TAF site. Showers and storms will continue
until about midnight, and will tend toward the east. This means that
DAN and LYH are most likely to see convection this evening.

Overnight cigs and vsbys will drop significantly in the mountains.
LWB, BLF and BCB are all likely to see fog of some strength.
Conditions will be mostly MVFR west of the Blue Ridge, and likely
dip to IFR at times, especially in the morning hours before sunrise.
Daybreak will quickly break down fog and cigs will mix out and come
up to VFR levels. Thursday afternoon brings another round of storms
and showers to the area, bringing impacts as soon as 16Z
Thursday.

Forecast confidence is medium.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

Typical summertime weather pattern expected through the weekend
with scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms and patchy
late night fog. Any flight restrictions are expected to be
temporary.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...RR/WP
NEAR TERM...VFJ
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...RR/VFJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

WVZ042>044-507-508-061845-
Mercer-Summers-Monroe-Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
061845-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-
240 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia and west central Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms this evening.
Isolated damaging thunderstorm winds are the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a marginal risk for severe storms Thursday
afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging thunderstorm
winds are the main threat.

For Friday through Tuesday the probability for widespread
hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
938 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

NCZ005-060215-
Rockingham-
938 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKINGHAM
COUNTY...

At 938 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Monroeton, or 7
miles southwest of Reidsville, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Reidsville...
Wentworth...
Monroeton...
and Haw River State Park.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3625 7975 3625 7985 3641 7972 3636 7964
      3624 7974
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 222DEG 12KT 3628 7979

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1001 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SSW WALNUT COVE       36.28N 80.15W
08/05/2020                   STOKES             NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG THE 800 BLOCK OF MAIN ST. IN
            WALNUT COVE.

&&

EST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
1002 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

VAZ044-058-060230-
Halifax-Pittsylvania-
1002 PM EDT Wed Aug 5 2020

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT
CENTRAL PITTSYLVANIA AND WEST CENTRAL HALIFAX COUNTIES...

At 1001 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Dry Fork to Ingram. Movement was
northeast at 10 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Chatham...
Ingram...
Java...
Dry Fork...
Climax...
and Keeling.

Torrential rainfall, with rates of two to four inches per hour, is
also occurring with these storms, and may cause localized flooding.
Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3692 7950 3685 7901 3670 7908 3674 7958
TIME...MOT...LOC 0201Z 205DEG 9KT 3678 7950 3675 7912

DS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1015 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0942 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW EDEN              36.50N 79.76W
08/05/2020                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG THE 300 BLOCK OF BOONE RD.
            IN EDEN, NC.

&&

EST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
1019 PM EDT WED AUG 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0924 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW BETHANY            36.31N 79.86W
08/05/2020                   ROCKINGHAM         NC   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ALONG THE 200 BLOCK OF BETHANY RD.
            REIDSVILLE AREA.

&&

EST

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