Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Blacksburg, VA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
257 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cold front remains stalled today into early Friday across
the area, before pushing southeast Saturday. High pressure
builds in this weekend with return to typical summer weather.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Thunderstorms have developed early this afternoon in the
mountains west of the Blue Ridge and then to our east further
out into the piedmont with a lull for the local area east of the
Ridge. Storms have been prolific rain producers with a couple of
storms pulsing up enough to generate some large hail. Anticipate
the primary threat through this evening will reside with flash
flood potential with a secondary threat of isolated wind damage
and possibly large hail. Anticipate activity will eventually
develop east of the Ridge as outflow boundaries converge to
generate new convection into early tonight before activity
wanes late. Friday may present a similar situation to today as
the axis of the upper trof still remains to our west.

Conditions will be seasonably warm though on the humid side.
Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to around 70 east of the
Blue Ridge, low to mid 60s west. Highs tomorrow will be in the
mid/upper 80s east, mid/upper 70s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Upper level trough moves through the Mid-Atlantic Friday night into
Saturday, bringing in a surface high. Despite this change in
pattern, a few isolated storms remain possible for Saturday
afternoon, given steep lapse rates. Any development will be
difficult to pull off though, given dry air aloft.

A weak disturbance Sunday will work with the slowly returning
moisture behind a stalled front to our south to allow for some
isolated showers and thunderstorm activity. Temperatures by this
point start to make their aim at returning to above average, with
areas east of the Piedmont forecast to hit 90 degrees as 850 temps
swell to +20C in the afternoons.

Monday will be a near repeat to Sunday with diurnal heating working
with a weak disturbance to try and get convection going in the
afternoon, but staying mostly isolated. Temperatures also continue
their gradual warming.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM EDT Thursday...

Typical summertime pattern remains in place through the forecast
period with a broad areas of high pressure sticking to the southern
U.S. All the while, the jet stream remains tied up in Canada with a
trough attempting to dig down into the Great Lakes region. This
pattern will keep diurnal convection going through next work week.
All the while, the region of high pressure will help with transport
of an above average temperature airmass that will be keeping us
toasty. The foothills and Piedmont will continue to see 90s while
the mountains warm to the 80s. Lows range in the 70s and 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Thursday...

Conditions will generally be VFR in a convective environment
into this evening. Will use VCTS and amend to a tempo as radar
trends dictate. Expect convection will gradually wane this
evening, followed by development of MVFR/IFR conditions in
stratus and fog overnight. Any airfield that gets a dousing of
rain is likely to sink to LIFR by daybreak.

Conditions improve to VFR later Friday morning with a break in
the convection before redevelopment occurs friday afternoon.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure builds into the weekend with lesser chances of
storms. Pattern should be more typical of summer into Monday
with scattered afternoon/evening storms. Overall VFR outside
storms and late night valley fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RR
LONG TERM...RR
AVIATION...MBS/WP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>044-507-508-070900-
Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes-
Yadkin-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski-Montgomery-Grayson-
Carroll-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-
Patrick-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell-
Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe-
Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier-
143 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina,
northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia,
southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall are
expected into this evening. Flash flooding is possible, and some
storms may become severe with isolated wind damage.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
533 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 SSW GLENRAY           37.69N 80.68W
08/06/2020                   SUMMERS            WV   911 CALL CENTER

            STRONG WINDS BLEW MULTIPLE LARGE LIMBS DOWN
            ON ROUTE 12.

&&

RR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
547 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ047-062230-
Buckingham-
547 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT
NORTHERN BUCKINGHAM COUNTY...

At 547 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Centenary, or 8
miles north of Buckingham, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buckingham...
Dillwyn...
Wingina...
New Canton...
Gold Hill...
and Centenary.

LAT...LON 3764 7825 3750 7844 3763 7874 3764 7871
      3767 7872 3768 7869 3770 7869 3768 7866
      3768 7864 3771 7865 3775 7862 3776 7855
      3776 7851 3780 7849 3776 7847 3775 7844
      3773 7836 3769 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2147Z 233DEG 25KT 3767 7853

VFJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
550 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W FRIES               36.72N 80.98W
08/06/2020                   GRAYSON            VA   PUBLIC

            RECEIVED SEVERAL PICTURES OF LIMBS DOWN IN A
            PERSONS BACK YARD IN FRIES. SOME OF WHICH
            WERE 6 INCHES IN DIAMETER.

&&

RR