Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
224 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Shortwave trough moves through the area through this evening.
High pressure during the weekend shifts east by next work week.
Becoming rather humid by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 220 PM Friday...

Surface high pressure remains in place while H500 shortwaves crosses
the area through this evening. This will result in isolated to
scattered showers or storms to develop mainly across the eastern
mountains. However, a shower or storm could also develop across
the lowlands this afternoon and evening. Precipitation could be
heavy at times, capable to produce localized water issues with
slow moving storms. Any convection should dissipate shortly
after sunset. Although dry weather is expected tonight, a
renegade shower or storm could still develop overnight tonight.

Temperatures will be above normal for tonight and Saturday.
High pressure will prevail on Saturday providing dry and hot
weather. Afternoon temperatures could reach the upper 80s over
most of the lowlands, with some spots reaching the 90 degree
mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

Broad ridging remains in place over region into early next week.
Outside of a isolated shower or thunderstorm over the highest
ridges, dry weather conditions are expected for Sunday and most of
Monday with daytime highs across much of the lower elevations in the
lower 90s.

Models have continued to depict a weak pair of weak disturbances in
the northern and southern stream approaching the region Monday
afternoon/evening and will include some slight chances of
showers/thunderstorms over portions of southeast Ohio and our
Virginia counties, although given poor model consistency handing
these features, confidence is low.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 215 PM Friday...

The pattern turns a little more active for the remainder of the week
with copious moisture pooling ahead of a stalling frontal boundary
somewhere across the Middle Ohio Valley. Heat and humidity
returning to the region will allow for formation mainly
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday.
Given generally weak flow, the main threat with any storms will
be locally heavy rain along with some gusty and erratic winds as
convective cores become precipitation loaded and drop.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions expected through at least midnight.
Afternoon low cu about 3,500 feet will be common across the
area. Under surface high pressure, upper level shortwaves
combines with afternoon heating to provide enough forcing to
initiate convection. Best chances for convection will reside
along the eastern mountains and central WV. Coded VCTS for the
afternoon at all except HTS and PKB. Brief periods of IFR could
be possible under any downpour.

Periods of IFR/LIFR will be possible once again overnight
tonight as dense fog or low stratus develops. Sites prone to
fog tonight are EKN, CRW and BKW. Any restrictions overnight
will improve quickly by 12-13Z.

Light northerly flow becoming light and variable tonight and
continuing through the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of storms this afternoon
may vary. Timing of fog may vary overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ

Hazardous Weather Outlook...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Charleston WV
606 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ003-004-WVZ027-028-030>034-039-040-515>526-080815-
Dickenson-Buchanan-Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-McDowell-
Wyoming-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Raleigh-Southeast Raleigh-
Northwest Fayette-Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-
Southeast Nicholas-Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-
Northwest Pocahontas-Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Randolph-
Southeast Randolph-
606 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, and
portions of central West Virginia, northeast West Virginia,
northern West Virginia, southeast West Virginia and southern West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Slow moving thunderstorms may result in isolated high water impacts
today and this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-
029-080815-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Gilmer-
606 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, and portions of central West Virginia, northern West
Virginia, southern West Virginia and western West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
422 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

WVZ523-524-072100-
Southeast Pocahontas-Northwest Pocahontas-
422 PM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL POCAHONTAS
COUNTY...

At 421 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Greenbank,
moving east at 5 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Pocahontas County.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. A quick 2 inches of rain is possible. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 3838 7973 3836 7973 3835 7974 3836 7976
      3834 7977 3833 7978 3831 7981 3831 7987
      3840 7988 3845 7969 3843 7969
TIME...MOT...LOC 2021Z 267DEG 6KT 3837 7981

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