Alert archive / Virginia / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

August 6, 2020Buchanan County, Virginia

NWS Charleston, WV issued this special weather statement at Aug 6, 2020, 11:32 PM EDT for Buchanan County, Virginia. It was in force for 28 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 6, 2020, 11:32 PM EDT (03:32 UTC)
Expired
Aug 7, 2020, 12:00 AM EDT
In force
28 min
Issued by
NWS Charleston, WV

County Buchanan County, VA

The radar

The Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 110 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Roanoke, VA (KRNK), launched 00:00Z, 3.5 hours before the alert went out and 231 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2020-08-07Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 309 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Roanoke, VA at 00:00Z on 2020-08-07The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 42 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
309 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-58 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1121 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
42 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
52 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 6, 10:38 PM EDT, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 6, 10:38 PM EDT, 54 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1038 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances move up the Appalachians through
Friday. High pressure crosses Saturday, setting up a warming
trend into early next week, as it moves east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1038 PM Thursday...

Temperatures and POPs were adjusted this evening to remain on
track with current trends.

As of 800 PM Thursday...

Elected to increase cloud coverage through the near term period
as latest model guidance suggests an uptick in clouds starting
late tonight. Also made adjustments to POPs this evening along
the mountains as convection wanes with the loss of diurnal
heating.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

Showers and storms will continue to develop mainly across the
southern and eastern portions of WV and extreme southwest VA through
this evening. An upper level shortwave and the afternoon heating
acting on PWATs around 1.8 inches are responsible for this activity.
Expect most of the convection to wane down by 9 pm this evening. A
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across central
Appalachians through Friday. Heavy downpours are possible with this
activity as well as repetitive showers over the same areas, posing a
threat for localized flooding into Friday. Convective activity will
diminish considerable tonight, but PoPs still exist across the
eastern half of our forecasting area. Patchy dense fog is also
expected mainly along the most protected river valleys overnight
tonight.

For Friday, a stronger H500 vorticity maxima sweeps across the area
to provide better support for showers and storms development mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. WPC has the central
Appalachians under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well.

Accepted guidance temperatures with near normal values through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

The pesky long wave trough finally exits east Friday evening as a
broad ridge over the Southern Plains begins to to slide into the
region. This will result in warm-up for the weekend with highs
across the Lowlands in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with minimal
precipitation chances as a subsidence inversion based near H800
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

Subsidence begins to fade as ridging deamplifies in advance of the
next system transiting the Upper Great Lakes with a diurnal risk of
showers and thunderstorms returning Monday. Models have shifted this
feature a bit further north over the last couple runs, so think
Monday's highs will be pretty similar to Sunday's in the absence of
stronger southwesterly flow.

The pattern turns more active for the remainder of the week with
copious moisture pooling ahead of a stalling frontal boundary
somewhere across the Middle Ohio Valley. Low level moisture coupled
with strong surface heating will yield substantial instability,
although generally weak winds through the column will limit overall
severe potential with the main threats being localized damaging
winds with core drops and locally heavy rainfall with slow moving
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

Diurnal heating and ripples of disturbances aloft have resulted
in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily along the
spine of the Appalachians. At the time of writing, BKW was
receiving a direct hit in flight restrictions due to convection,
and can't rule out EKN falling into the same boat. Convection
wanes over the next several hours, returning all terminals to
VFR for a time.

Confidence severs overnight tonight as river valley fog
production contends with increasing cloud coverage aloft. Held
onto fog across our most vulnerable sites of CRW, EKN, and CKB,
while excluding HTS and PKB with this issuance. Will also have
to monitor BKW for fog now that the terminal has observed rain
this evening.

A similar forecast is painted for Friday with convection
sprouting in the afternoon, potentially in close vicinity to our
mountain aerodromes. For now, chose to include VCTS at BKW to
account for this. Winds remain light throughout the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog may vary from
the forecast overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/07/20
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    L    M    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 6, 6:39 AM EDT, 16 hours 53 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515-516-524-071045-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Pocahontas-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, the
southern mountains of West Virginia, and portions of the central
mountains of WV.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring strong to
damaging wind gusts, along with locally heavy downpours. There are
marginal risks for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ027-028-030>032-039-040-517>523-525-526-071045-
Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of West
Virginia, portions of the central mountains of West Virginia,
and portions of the northern and central lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring strong wind
gusts, along with locally heavy downpours. There is a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-
029-071045-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Gilmer-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, the western lowlands and portions of central lowlands of West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TRM / RG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 6, 11:32 PM EDT, 0 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1132 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ004-070400-
Buchanan-
1132 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTY...

At 1132 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Big Rock, or
near Grundy, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Roseann and Vansant.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Charleston West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 8221 3739 8215 3737 8202 3730 8199
      3723 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 297DEG 14KT 3733 8214

HART

The office that day

Everything else NWS Charleston, WV issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 7, 4:20 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRLXCalhoun, Gilmer, Lewis25 min
Aug 6, 10:52 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningRLXBuchanan, Dickenson38 min
Aug 7, 12:18 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRLXDickenson27 min
Aug 7, 12:37 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRLXBuchanan113 min
Aug 7, 1:04 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRLXBuchanan, Dickenson26 min
Aug 7, 1:13 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningRLXBuchanan, Dickenson3 hr
Aug 7, 4:22 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementRLXHighland38 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Virginia, 2020Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.