Special Weather Statement, NWS Charleston, WV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1038 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of disturbances move up the Appalachians through
Friday. High pressure crosses Saturday, setting up a warming
trend into early next week, as it moves east.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1038 PM Thursday...

Temperatures and POPs were adjusted this evening to remain on
track with current trends.

As of 800 PM Thursday...

Elected to increase cloud coverage through the near term period
as latest model guidance suggests an uptick in clouds starting
late tonight. Also made adjustments to POPs this evening along
the mountains as convection wanes with the loss of diurnal
heating.

As of 200 PM Thursday...

Showers and storms will continue to develop mainly across the
southern and eastern portions of WV and extreme southwest VA through
this evening. An upper level shortwave and the afternoon heating
acting on PWATs around 1.8 inches are responsible for this activity.
Expect most of the convection to wane down by 9 pm this evening. A
Marginal risk for excessive rainfall exists across central
Appalachians through Friday. Heavy downpours are possible with this
activity as well as repetitive showers over the same areas, posing a
threat for localized flooding into Friday. Convective activity will
diminish considerable tonight, but PoPs still exist across the
eastern half of our forecasting area. Patchy dense fog is also
expected mainly along the most protected river valleys overnight
tonight.

For Friday, a stronger H500 vorticity maxima sweeps across the area
to provide better support for showers and storms development mainly
during the afternoon and evening hours. WPC has the central
Appalachians under a Marginal risk for excessive rainfall as well.

Accepted guidance temperatures with near normal values through the
period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

The pesky long wave trough finally exits east Friday evening as a
broad ridge over the Southern Plains begins to to slide into the
region. This will result in warm-up for the weekend with highs
across the Lowlands in the upper 80s to lower 90s along with minimal
precipitation chances as a subsidence inversion based near H800
develops.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 220 PM Thursday...

Subsidence begins to fade as ridging deamplifies in advance of the
next system transiting the Upper Great Lakes with a diurnal risk of
showers and thunderstorms returning Monday. Models have shifted this
feature a bit further north over the last couple runs, so think
Monday's highs will be pretty similar to Sunday's in the absence of
stronger southwesterly flow.

The pattern turns more active for the remainder of the week with
copious moisture pooling ahead of a stalling frontal boundary
somewhere across the Middle Ohio Valley. Low level moisture coupled
with strong surface heating will yield substantial instability,
although generally weak winds through the column will limit overall
severe potential with the main threats being localized damaging
winds with core drops and locally heavy rainfall with slow moving
storms.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 800 PM Thursday...

Diurnal heating and ripples of disturbances aloft have resulted
in scattered showers and thunderstorms, primarily along the
spine of the Appalachians. At the time of writing, BKW was
receiving a direct hit in flight restrictions due to convection,
and can't rule out EKN falling into the same boat. Convection
wanes over the next several hours, returning all terminals to
VFR for a time.

Confidence severs overnight tonight as river valley fog
production contends with increasing cloud coverage aloft. Held
onto fog across our most vulnerable sites of CRW, EKN, and CKB,
while excluding HTS and PKB with this issuance. Will also have
to monitor BKW for fog now that the terminal has observed rain
this evening.

A similar forecast is painted for Friday with convection
sprouting in the afternoon, potentially in close vicinity to our
mountain aerodromes. For now, chose to include VCTS at BKW to
account for this. Winds remain light throughout the period.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog may vary from
the forecast overnight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/07/20
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    L    M    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
Overnight river valley fog may lead to IFR conditions this
weekend into early next week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MEK
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...MEK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Charleston WV
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ003-004-WVZ033-034-515-516-524-071045-
Dickenson-Buchanan-McDowell-Wyoming-Northwest Raleigh-
Southeast Raleigh-Southeast Pocahontas-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southwest Virginia, the
southern mountains of West Virginia, and portions of the central
mountains of WV.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring strong to
damaging wind gusts, along with locally heavy downpours. There are
marginal risks for severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

WVZ027-028-030>032-039-040-517>523-525-526-071045-
Clay-Braxton-Lewis-Harrison-Taylor-Upshur-Barbour-Northwest Fayette-
Southeast Fayette-Northwest Nicholas-Southeast Nicholas-
Northwest Webster-Southeast Webster-Northwest Pocahontas-
Northwest Randolph-Southeast Randolph-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the northern mountains of West
Virginia, portions of the central mountains of West Virginia,
and portions of the northern and central lowlands of West Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could bring strong wind
gusts, along with locally heavy downpours. There is a marginal risk
for excessive rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions by calling the toll-free spotter hotline, or by other
methods detailed at www.weather.gov/rlx/reports.

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-WVZ005>011-013>020-024>026-
029-071045-
Greenup-Carter-Boyd-Lawrence KY-Perry-Morgan-Athens-Washington-
Jackson OH-Vinton-Meigs-Gallia-Lawrence OH-Wayne-Cabell-Mason-
Jackson WV-Wood-Pleasants-Tyler-Lincoln-Putnam-Kanawha-Roane-Wirt-
Calhoun-Ritchie-Doddridge-Mingo-Logan-Boone-Gilmer-
639 AM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Kentucky, southeast
Ohio, the western lowlands and portions of central lowlands of West
Virginia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

TRM / RG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1132 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

VAZ004-070400-
Buchanan-
1132 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL BUCHANAN COUNTY...

At 1132 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Big Rock, or
near Grundy, moving southeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Roseann and Vansant.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They can relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Charleston West Virginia.

LAT...LON 3734 8221 3739 8215 3737 8202 3730 8199
      3723 8206
TIME...MOT...LOC 0332Z 297DEG 14KT 3733 8214

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1218 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ003-004-070445-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
1218 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...HEAVY RAIN WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN DICKENSON AND WEST CENTRAL
BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 1216 AM EDT, persistent thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
continue to slowly move across northwestern Dickenson and west
central Buchanan counties. Rainfall amount of 1 to 2 inches in an
hour will be possible with these storms. This may result in isolated
high water impacts, particularly for poor drainage and typical flood
prone areas.

Locations impacted include...
Clintwood, Haysi, Breaks Interstate and John Flannagan Lake.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
this storm passes.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3722 8252 3724 8245 3727 8235 3728 8234
      3728 8232 3730 8231 3737 8221 3725 8216
      3713 8253
TIME...MOT...LOC 0416Z 255DEG 13KT 3723 8241

HART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Charleston WV
104 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VAZ003-004-070530-
Dickenson-Buchanan-
104 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

...HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO IMPACT DICKENSON AND BUCHANAN COUNTIES...

At 101 AM EDT, thunderstorms with heavy rainfall continue to impact
portions of Dickenson and Buchanan counties. Many areas have
received 1 to 2 inches of rain so far tonight, with another inch
possible. This may result in isolated high water impacts,
particularly for poor drainage areas and other typical low lying
flood prone areas.

Locations impacted include...
Grundy, Haysi, McClure, Nora and Vansant.

Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these thunderstorms pass.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams, and ponding of water on country roads and
farmland along the banks of creeks and streams.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

LAT...LON 3700 8241 3708 8247 3716 8230 3721 8234
      3733 8203 3727 8198 3721 8208 3715 8210
TIME...MOT...LOC 0501Z 246DEG 28KT 3727 8207

HART