Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Main forecast concerns/challenges this period will remain with
shower and thunderstorm chances through this evening, and once again
on Friday. An isolated strong to severe storm will remain possible
through early this evening.

In the near term, scattered showers and storms continue to develop
across parts of southern CO. While development continues across the
higher terrain, focus has shifted a little to the east along parts
of the I-25 corridor. In these locations, have noted slightly higher
focus, with these storms developing along two separate moisture
convergence axes. Per latest RAP analysis, these are located from
Fremont county northeast to Teller and El Paso counties, and from
around Pueblo southeast to Springfield. These locations will have
the highest potential to see the highest coverage of storms for
the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening, along with an
isolated strong to severe storm. Despite forcing remaining limited,
instability remains on the higher side this afternoon with very
steep lapse rates in place, that once again will support an isolated
strong/severe storm capable of hails to the size of quarters and
wind gusts to around 60 mph. Don't think the flash flooding threat
is high for most areas given the limited coverage, however, slow
storm movement with brief heavy downpours could support localized
minor flooding concerns. Most thunderstorm development is focusing
to the east of the burn scars and think the flash flooding risk for
area burn scars has lowered. However, can't rule out an isolated
storm to move across the burn scars and will continue to closely
monitor. Should see any stronger development end by mid evening, but
think some isolated showers and storms will persist slightly longer
this evening.

Additional showers and thunderstorms will again be possible Friday
afternoon, though focus looks to be over the mountains. Can't rule
out an isolated storm spilling into parts of the I-25 corridor
though, but any severe threat looks low at this time.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Friday Night and Saturday:

Ongoing convection will continue into Friday evening. The forecast
seems to be on track from yesterday with convection primarily
staying over the mountains, the Raton Mesa, and the Palmer Divide.
Some of the storms may develop over Baca County, as well. The
environment isn't the greatest, the best instability will be over
the mountains, so the flash flooding risk will continue over the
burn scars during the evening. Over the plains, CAPE values will be
under 1000 J/kg and deep shear values will be less than 25 kts,
meaning storms that form over Baca County will be weak and
unorganized. All thunderstorm chances will dissipate shortly after
midnight.

Saturday will be similar to Friday, except there will be less shear
in the atmosphere due to weak winds aloft and weak surface winds,
therefore weak thunderstorms are expected to develop over the
mountains once again. There is a flash flood risk over the burn
scars as thunderstorms develop during the afternoon. With the
limited convection and general southwesterly flow over the region,
temperatures will be hot over the entire region. Widespread +100F
over the plains, mid to upper 80s over the mountain valleys and
Teller County, and the mid 70s over Lake County.

Sunday:

A frontal passage is expected on Sunday, but the timing and
intensity is still uncertain. Via deterministic models, the GFS is
flip-flopping between a strong frontal passage and a weak frontal
passage being stalled over the eastern plains and eventually being
overcome with westerly winds off of the mountains. Whereas the NAM
has a strong frontal passage, but the model run stops before the
potential impacts. Soundings reveal a pretty dry low-level, so even
if the front does pass over the region, it'll be hard for
precipitation to fall. The main forecast impact of how strong the
front is will be wind speeds and temperatures.

Monday through Thursday:

The rest of the forecast will depend on the frontal intensity, but
the forecast is that Monday will be a post-frontal scenario.
Southeasterly winds will develop over the plains, sparking
thunderstorms over the mountains that may spread east over the
plains. Low CAPE values are expected so the storms will be weak.

The rest of the weak looks awfully wavy, with shortwaves
propagating over Colorado each day. Each day also looks to bring
scattered showers and thunderstorms over the mountains and the lower
elevations. The daily thunderstorms will help keep the temperatures
down as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 340 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Main forecast concerns continue to be with thunderstorms through
this evening across all of the TAF sites. Latest radar imagery is
showing an increasing coverage of showers and storms near all of the
sites, and think it's possible for a storm to move overhead over the
next couple of hours. COS and ALS still have the highest potential,
but think there might be a slightly higher chance for PUB and will
continue to monitor trends. Thunderstorm potential lowers by mid
evening, but think there will be some scattered showers lingering
across the area later into the evening. Impacts should be low
though. VFR and dry conditions tonight into Friday morning, with
shower and thunderstorm development once again possible Friday
afternoon. Focus should remain away from the sites, but will need
to monitor for the potential of an isolated storm or two.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1155 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-171800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1155 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Scattered showers and thunderstorms over the higher terrain are
expected to increase in coverage through early afternoon, then
spread east to the I-25 corridor during the afternoon and the
plains early this evening. A few of the storms along and east of
the I-25 corridor could become strong to severe. While can't rule
out severe development anywhere across the plains today, there is
a slightly potential for the Colorado Springs to Pueblo area and
another area along and south of a Walsenburg to Springfield line.
Lightning, locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts to
45 mph will be possible with storms today, with quarter size hail
and wind gusts to 60 mph possible with the stronger storms.

There is also slightly increased potential for flash flooding
over the recent burn scars should a storm move over one of them,
with the Spring Burn Scar being the most susceptible today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorm chances will decrease Friday and Saturday across the
region, with isolated to scattered storms over the mountains,
interior valleys and I-25 corridor in the afternoon and evening
both days. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail
and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible with any stronger
storms. Thunderstorms are then forecast to become more widespread
from Sunday into next week over the entire area, as moisture
gradually increases across Colorado.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible along and east of Interstate 25 this afternoon and
evening.

RODRIGUEZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
324 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ094-099-162200-
Springfield Vicinity/Baca County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
324 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL BACA AND EASTERN LAS
ANIMAS COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM MDT...

At 324 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Pritchett, or 22 miles west of Springfield, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pritchett.

LAT...LON 3727 10300 3735 10313 3751 10298 3740 10270
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 224DEG 15KT 3736 10302

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
339 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ086-162215-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
339 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM MDT...

At 339 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles south of Avondale, or 23 miles southeast of Pueblo, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Pueblo
County.

LAT...LON 3785 10445 3797 10461 3820 10441 3794 10407
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 231DEG 22KT 3796 10444

KTS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
419 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ093-094-097-162300-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
419 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...NORTHEASTERN
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM MDT...

At 418 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles north of Kim, or 35 miles southeast of North La Junta, moving
north at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Otero,
northeastern Las Animas and southwestern Bent Counties.

LAT...LON 3746 10311 3741 10333 3769 10361 3780 10318
TIME...MOT...LOC 2218Z 163DEG 14KT 3751 10325

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
451 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ071>075-087-162330-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Southern San Luis Valley CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Ft CO-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains above 11000 Ft CO-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Ft CO-
451 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

At 449 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a an area of rain with
embedded thunder moving over the Spring burn scar. Up to 0.20 to
0.30 inches of rain is expected as this area of rain moves northeast
at 20 mph over the burn scar.

Locations impacted include...
Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Costilla county, Spring Burn
Scar north of Highway 160, Indian Creek on the southeastern Spring
Burn Scar, Spring Burn Scar south of Highway 160 in Huerfano county,
La Veta, La Veta Pass and Cuchara.

LAT...LON 3734 10515 3766 10538 3772 10513 3769 10503
      3766 10499 3744 10499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2249Z 247DEG 19KT 3763 10515

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
459 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

COZ093-094-097-162345-
Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County CO-Eastern Las Animas County CO-
La Junta Vicinity/Otero County CO-
459 PM MDT Thu Jul 16 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN OTERO...EAST CENTRAL
LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHWESTERN BENT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM MDT...

At 458 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles southeast of Higbee, or 28 miles south of North La Junta,
moving northwest at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Higbee.

LAT...LON 3754 10319 3746 10340 3781 10360 3783 10321
TIME...MOT...LOC 2258Z 156DEG 16KT 3759 10336

Hodanish

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