Special Weather Statement, NWS Pueblo, CO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
608 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 606 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Quick update to the grids to incorporate latest obs and satellite
trends. Dropped El Paso and Teller Counties from the Severe
Thunderstorm Watch that remains in effect until 9 pm for the rest
of the eastern plains. Moore

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Strong to severe storms will affect the KCOS/KPUB area this
afternoon and then eventually move to the east and southeast
across the southeast plains. Large hail up to golfballs have
already occurred in the El Paso county region and strong storms
were moving towards the Pueblo area.

Shear values of 35 to 45 knts were noted over the region at 3 pm
with CAPE values of 1000-2000 J/KG.

Given the straight line hodographs over the region, we have had
storm splits over the area with the left turners producing the
significant hail.

In addition to the severe weather, flash flooding has occurred and
this flash flood threat will be possible in urban areas as the
storms move east and southeast.

Although the severe thunderstorm watch covers the entire region,
the best forcing will occur mainly along a line from Pueblo down
towards Springfield.

After the storms move out of the region later this evening, skies
should gradually clear over the area.

For tomorrow, some strong storms will be possible over the area
but intensity is expected to be a bit less than today as shear and
CAPE will not be as high

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Thursday Night and Friday:

Convection will already have started by the beginning of the long
term forecast (6pm Thursday through Wednesday). The far eastern
plains look to have the best environment for severe storms during
the evening. CAPE values will be around 2000 to 2500 J/kg and 6km
bulk shear values are expected to be around 25 to 30 kts. LCL
heights are expected to be around 5kft, which isn't ideal for
tornadogenesis, but is lower than the high based "Rocky Mountain
Boomers" the southeast plains are used to. The shear values are a
little low, but the storms that develop earlier in the day will
reach the unstable environment and will intensify to strong or
severe caliber storms. Main risks will be 1 inch hail and 60 mph
winds under the strongest storms. The storms will dissipate or be in
Kansas a little after midnight on Friday.

Surface and low level winds shift to more of a westerly component
for Friday afternoon, which will dry out the atmosphere, limiting
CAPE values. The surface flow aloft will be weaker and less veering
as well, which will limit the amount of shear in the atmosphere. The
closed low over the Pacific will push some moisture towards the
western mountains and diurnal heating and wind fluctuations will
create afternoon thunderstorms over the mountains. There is a low
end flash flood risk over the Spring, Decker, Junkins, and Hayden
Pass burn scars. Though convection is expected to be isolated to
scattered, if a stronger storm does develop over the burn scars,
flash flooding may occur.

Hot temperatures make their comeback on Friday afternoon. 100F
temperatures may be observed over the far eastern plains, the mid
80s over the mountain valleys and Teller County, and the mid 70s
over Lake County.

Saturday:

Similar set-up to what is expected on Friday. Thunderstorms will be
confined mainly to the mountains. The GFS has a few of the storms
making it over the plains, but the ECMWF is less optimistic.
Soundings reveal very dry low levels, so if the storms do make it
over the plains, it'll likely just be virga. There may be a few
virga droplets that hit the ground, which I guess constitutes as
"rain". Main impacts will be gusty winds under the storms on
Saturday afternoon and evening. Hotter temperatures are expected on
Saturday afternoon. Widespread +100F are expected over the easter
plains, mid to upper 80s over the mountain valleys and Teller
County, and the mid 70s over Lake County.

Sunday:

A cold front is expected to pass over the plains Sunday morning or
Sunday afternoon. As the front moves over the plains, it'll
eventually collide with the mountains, sparking showers and
thunderstorms. The storms are expected to spread out east, but the
environment doesn't support severe storms. A strengthening surface
low will develop over western Kansas, wrapping up moisture forcing
it aloft isentropically. Some widespread showers are possible with
this outcome.

Monday through Wednesday:

The post frontal air mass will keep temperatures cooler on Monday
and Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to stay confined
to the mountains on Monday afternoon, but will become more
widespread on Tuesday and Wednesday. Long term guidance isn't
suggesting for anything severe yet. Showers and thunderstorms will
pose a flash flood risk over the burn scars, though.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 252 PM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

Strong to severe storms will be possible at KCOS and KPUB this
afternoon with the activity clearing the area around 00 UTC. VFR
is anticipated tonight. Thunderstorms will return to the two taf
sites tomorrow afternoon.

KALS...will see VFR conditions with -tsra and gusty winds
possible this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-161800-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1150 AM MDT Wed Jul 15 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible along the immediate I-25
corridor this afternoon and early evening. Hail the size of
golfballs and wind gusts to 70 mph will be possible. A tornado
cannot be ruled out. The greatest threat for severe weather along
the I-25 corridor will be between 2 pm and 6 pm. The storms will
then move onto the plains and remain strong to severe, but are
expected to gradually weaken as they move to the Kansas border.

It should be noted that high resolution computer simulations show
strong storms affecting both the greater Colorado Springs area
and Pueblo areas this afternoon and early evening.

In addition to large hail and damaging winds, very heavy rain will
be possible. This rain will be capable of producing flash flooding
in the urban areas.

Over the mountains, there is limited potential for burn scar flash
flooding if a storm should develop over one of the newer scars.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected again on
Thursday, and a few severe storms will be possible over the
plains. The main risks from storms on the plains will be winds
over 60 mph, hail up to half dollar size, locally heavy rainfall
and frequent cloud to ground lightning. Farther west over the
mountains and interior valleys, hail up to nickel size, winds of
50 mph, brief heavy rainfall and frequent cloud to ground
lightning are possible. There will also be the possibility of
flooding of burn scars across most of the mountains on Thursday
afternoon and evening.

For Friday into the weekend, scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected each day, with the greatest chance for
storms over the mountains. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent
lightning, small hail and wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible
with any stronger storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
likely along and east of Interstate 25 this afternoon and early
evening. Activation may be needed as early as 2 pm.

Hodanish

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
617 PM MDT WED JUL 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 PM     HEAVY RAIN       PUEBLO WEST             38.31N 104.75W
07/15/2020  M0.94 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

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