Severe Thunderstorm Warning 239, NWS Pueblo, CO

739 
WWUS55 KPUB 292200
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
400 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COC071-292230-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-200829T2230Z/
Las Animas CO-
400 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 400 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles south of
Kim, or 29 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10350 3711 10345 3710 10319 3700 10323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 273DEG 15KT 3701 10340 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

kam

191 
WWUS55 KPUB 292207
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
407 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COC071-292216-
/O.CAN.KPUB.SV.W.0239.000000T0000Z-200829T2230Z/
Las Animas CO-
407 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3700 10350 3711 10345 3710 10319 3700 10323
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 274DEG 14KT 3701 10337 

$$

kam

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Currently...

at 2 PM...a broken line of strong to isolated svr thunderstorms were
along the mtns/plains interface. These storms were associated with a
short wave moving east across the state of Colorado. elsewhere, more
isolated storms were over the remainder of the mtns with a few high
based showers over the far eastern plains.

SPC mesoanalysis was showing marginal deep layer shear mainly south
of US50 of about 20-25 kts. Mean layer CAPE was running about 500-
1000 Joules.

Rest of today into this early evening...

Convective line will continue to move east out onto the plains. SPC
has already issued an MD for the region indicating the potential for
a blue box for the area. CAPE is fcst to increase to 1000-1500
Joules and shear to increase to 25 to 30 knts, so we will likely see
a few more severe storms over the area later this afternoon,
Greatest threat still appears to be over Las Animas and Baca
counties.

Over the remainder of the fcst area storms will be more isolated,
with the activity likely ending in the mtns by early evening.

Tonight...

Storms over the plains will likely clear the state line by early
evening hours, with clearing skies thereafter. Low tonight will
generally be in the 50s plains and 40s valleys.

Tomorrow...

Activity tomorrow prior to 6 pm should remain in the mountains,
especially along the CONTDVD. Overall it looks to be rather dry and
warm, and any storms will likely be high based. SPC has the far
eastern plains is a marginal risk over the far eastern plains, but
if any activity should develop, it will likely occur after 6 pm.

With downslope flow tomorrow, temperatures will rebound quite a bit
and I expect we will see max temps reaching into the L90s most of
the plains with 80s just east of the mtns. Valleys will see temps
approaching 80F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...Active Weather Expected Through Tuesday...

Sunday night through Tuesday...An upper trough sweeps across Canada
and the northern Rockies on Sunday, pushing a cold front down across
WY and into CO Sunday evening. Another lobe of energy rotating
around the larger low pressure center will drop south out of the
Pacific NW on Mon, strengthening and crossing Colorado late Mon
through Tue. Isolated convection is forecast across the eastern mts
and plains Sun evening, ans as the previous forecaster noted, the
dryline lurking right along the CO and KS border will mean lingering
convection over the east late with the possibility of a strong storm
or two. Activity ramps up once again Mon aftn over the higher
terrain and I-25 corridor, before increasing in coverage and
strength Mon night through the first half of Tue. Activity will then
begin tapering off Tue night as the upper trough continues pushing
southeast into the panhandles. Temperatures are forecast to be much
cooler through Tue, with highs in the 70s to around 80F for most
areas both days, and a dusting of snow for the peaks of the central
mts is within range for Mon night.

Wednesday through Saturday...An upper ridge builds back into the
Great Basin and Four Corners region for the second half of the week,
with gradual warming and generally dry conditions expected. There
will be an isolated shot for showers and a thunderstorm or two each
aftn and eve, mainly over the higher terrain and Raton Mesa. Temps
will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys each
day, while the plains will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s Wed
through Fri, and 80s to lower 90s for Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

A few storms will move through during the mid afternoon but should
clear the TAF sites prior to the 00 UTC issuance times. Cant rule
out a straggling storm, but odds are the activity will be east of
KCOS and KPUB by 00 UTC. Otherwise, anticipate VFR next 24 hours at
all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-301745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

One or two severe storms will be possible today over the plains,
with the best chance of severe storms south of highway 50. Hail up
to the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts to 65 mph will be
possible.

Showers and thunderstorms were moving across the Continental
Divide at noon time. These storms will move across the San Luis
Valley and the southern mountains early this afternoon and will
move across the I-25 corridor between 2 and 5 pm. They will then
continue moving east across the plains later this afternoon, and
across the far eastern plains this evening. The best instability
and wind shear was noted over the far southeast plains, south of
highway 50, and it is in this location where the best chance of
severe storms will be later today and this evening.

In addition, all thunderstorms will be capable of locally heavy
rain, wind gusts to 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. If a strong storm moves across the burn scars, flash
flooding will be possible. The best chance fro strong storms in
the mountains will be between 1 pm and 4 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
the area on Sunday, with the best coverage being over the
mountains. The main risks with storms on Sunday will be lightning
and wind gusts to around 45 mph. A stronger storm or two will be
possible over the far eastern plains, near the Kansas border. Hail
up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible
with these storms. Although heavy rainfall is not expected to be
as widespread on Sunday, there is the potential for flash flooding
over the newer burn scars if a storm develops over one.

A rather strong pacific weather system will move across the
region late Monday and Tuesday. Over the plains and valleys,
this system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.
This system may also bring a dusting of snow to the highest
mountain tops Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible late this afternoon and evening over the southeast
plains, with the greatest threat over the far southeast plains
south of highway 50.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ094-292130-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
249 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Branson, or 19 miles north of Des Moines, moving east
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3707 10384 3724 10339 3700 10332 3700 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 255DEG 7KT 3704 10373

kam

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
304 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             6 NE COLORADO CITY      37.99N 104.76W
08/29/2020  M1.00 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            I-25 AND MM77. ONE INCH HAIL REPORTED.

&&

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
324 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     DEBRIS FLOW      7 SW WETMORE            38.17N 105.19W
08/29/2020                   CUSTER             CO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            COLORADO STATE PATROL HAS CLOSED CO HWY 96,
            FROM CO HWY 165 TO CO HWY 67 DUE BE ROCK AND
            MUDSLIDES.

&&

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
329 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HEAVY RAIN       BEULAH                  38.07N 104.98W
08/29/2020  M0.55 INCH       PUEBLO             CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

KAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
335 PM MDT SAT AUG 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HEAVY RAIN       6 SSW BLACK FOREST      38.93N 104.74W
08/29/2020  M0.76 INCH       EL PASO            CO   COCORAHS

&&

KAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
343 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ094-292230-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
343 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 430 PM MDT...

At 342 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 18
miles east of Branson, or 23 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving
east at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3718 10348 3710 10311 3700 10320 3700 10370
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 285DEG 7KT 3702 10355

kam