Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Pueblo, CO

378 
WWUS55 KPUB 292126
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
326 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COC071-292145-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200829T2145Z/
Las Animas CO-
326 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM MDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY...

At 325 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 16 miles east of
Branson, or 23 miles northeast of Des Moines, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Las Animas County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 10370 3715 10366 3724 10344 3700 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2125Z 285DEG 18KT 3703 10358 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

kam

797 
WWUS55 KPUB 292142
SVSPUB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
342 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COC071-292151-
/O.EXP.KPUB.SV.W.0238.000000T0000Z-200829T2145Z/
Las Animas CO-
342 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 345 PM MDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small
hail, gusty winds and heavy rain are still possible with this
thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 PM MDT for
southeastern Colorado.

LAT...LON 3700 10370 3715 10366 3724 10344 3700 10337
TIME...MOT...LOC 2141Z 255DEG 7KT 3704 10355 

$$

kam

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
247 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

Currently...

at 2 PM...a broken line of strong to isolated svr thunderstorms were
along the mtns/plains interface. These storms were associated with a
short wave moving east across the state of Colorado. elsewhere, more
isolated storms were over the remainder of the mtns with a few high
based showers over the far eastern plains.

SPC mesoanalysis was showing marginal deep layer shear mainly south
of US50 of about 20-25 kts. Mean layer CAPE was running about 500-
1000 Joules.

Rest of today into this early evening...

Convective line will continue to move east out onto the plains. SPC
has already issued an MD for the region indicating the potential for
a blue box for the area. CAPE is fcst to increase to 1000-1500
Joules and shear to increase to 25 to 30 knts, so we will likely see
a few more severe storms over the area later this afternoon,
Greatest threat still appears to be over Las Animas and Baca
counties.

Over the remainder of the fcst area storms will be more isolated,
with the activity likely ending in the mtns by early evening.

Tonight...

Storms over the plains will likely clear the state line by early
evening hours, with clearing skies thereafter. Low tonight will
generally be in the 50s plains and 40s valleys.

Tomorrow...

Activity tomorrow prior to 6 pm should remain in the mountains,
especially along the CONTDVD. Overall it looks to be rather dry and
warm, and any storms will likely be high based. SPC has the far
eastern plains is a marginal risk over the far eastern plains, but
if any activity should develop, it will likely occur after 6 pm.

With downslope flow tomorrow, temperatures will rebound quite a bit
and I expect we will see max temps reaching into the L90s most of
the plains with 80s just east of the mtns. Valleys will see temps
approaching 80F.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...Active Weather Expected Through Tuesday...

Sunday night through Tuesday...An upper trough sweeps across Canada
and the northern Rockies on Sunday, pushing a cold front down across
WY and into CO Sunday evening. Another lobe of energy rotating
around the larger low pressure center will drop south out of the
Pacific NW on Mon, strengthening and crossing Colorado late Mon
through Tue. Isolated convection is forecast across the eastern mts
and plains Sun evening, ans as the previous forecaster noted, the
dryline lurking right along the CO and KS border will mean lingering
convection over the east late with the possibility of a strong storm
or two. Activity ramps up once again Mon aftn over the higher
terrain and I-25 corridor, before increasing in coverage and
strength Mon night through the first half of Tue. Activity will then
begin tapering off Tue night as the upper trough continues pushing
southeast into the panhandles. Temperatures are forecast to be much
cooler through Tue, with highs in the 70s to around 80F for most
areas both days, and a dusting of snow for the peaks of the central
mts is within range for Mon night.

Wednesday through Saturday...An upper ridge builds back into the
Great Basin and Four Corners region for the second half of the week,
with gradual warming and generally dry conditions expected. There
will be an isolated shot for showers and a thunderstorm or two each
aftn and eve, mainly over the higher terrain and Raton Mesa. Temps
will warm into the upper 70s to mid 80s for the high valleys each
day, while the plains will climb into the upper 70s to mid 80s Wed
through Fri, and 80s to lower 90s for Sat. Moore

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 246 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

A few storms will move through during the mid afternoon but should
clear the TAF sites prior to the 00 UTC issuance times. Cant rule
out a straggling storm, but odds are the activity will be east of
KCOS and KPUB by 00 UTC. Otherwise, anticipate VFR next 24 hours at
all 3 taf sites, KPUB, KALS and KCOS.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...HODANISH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ058>089-093>099-301745-
Western Mosquito Range/East Lake County Above 11000 Feet-
Leadville Vicinity/Lake County Below 11000 Feet-
Eastern Sawatch Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Western Chaffee County Between 9000 and 11000 Feet-
Central Chaffee County Below 9000 Feet-
Western Mosquito Range/East Chaffee County Above 9000 Feet-
Saguache County West of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
Saguache County East of Continental Divide Below 10000 Feet-
La Garita Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Upper Rio Grande Valley/Eastern San Juan Mountains Below
10000 Feet-Eastern San Juan Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Del Norte Vicinity/Northern San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Alamosa  Vicinity/Central San Luis Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Southern San Luis Valley-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 8500 And 11000 Feet-
Northern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Feet-
Southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains Above 11000 Feet-
Northwestern Fremont County Above 8500 Feet-
Western/Central Fremont County Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountain Valley Below 8500 Feet-
Wet Mountains between 6300 and 10000 Feet-
Wet Mountains Above 10000 Feet-
Teller County/Rampart Range Above 7500 Feet/Pikes Peak Between
7500 And 11000 Feet-Pikes Peak Above 11000 Feet-
Canon City Vicinity/Eastern Fremont County-
Northern El Paso County/Monument Ridge/Rampart Range Below
7500 Feet-
Colorado Springs Vicinity/Southern El Paso County/Rampart Range
Below 7400 Feet-Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Feet-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Feet-
Crowley County-La Junta Vicinity/Otero County-
Eastern Las Animas County-Western Kiowa County-
Eastern Kiowa County-Las Animas Vicinity/Bent County-
Lamar Vicinity/Prowers County-Springfield Vicinity/Baca County-
1139 AM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...east
central...south central and southeast Colorado.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

One or two severe storms will be possible today over the plains,
with the best chance of severe storms south of highway 50. Hail up
to the size of ping pong balls and wind gusts to 65 mph will be
possible.

Showers and thunderstorms were moving across the Continental
Divide at noon time. These storms will move across the San Luis
Valley and the southern mountains early this afternoon and will
move across the I-25 corridor between 2 and 5 pm. They will then
continue moving east across the plains later this afternoon, and
across the far eastern plains this evening. The best instability
and wind shear was noted over the far southeast plains, south of
highway 50, and it is in this location where the best chance of
severe storms will be later today and this evening.

In addition, all thunderstorms will be capable of locally heavy
rain, wind gusts to 45 mph and dangerous cloud to ground
lightning. If a strong storm moves across the burn scars, flash
flooding will be possible. The best chance fro strong storms in
the mountains will be between 1 pm and 4 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected across much of
the area on Sunday, with the best coverage being over the
mountains. The main risks with storms on Sunday will be lightning
and wind gusts to around 45 mph. A stronger storm or two will be
possible over the far eastern plains, near the Kansas border. Hail
up to 1 inch in diameter and wind gusts to 60 mph are possible
with these storms. Although heavy rainfall is not expected to be
as widespread on Sunday, there is the potential for flash flooding
over the newer burn scars if a storm develops over one.

A rather strong pacific weather system will move across the
region late Monday and Tuesday. Over the plains and valleys,
this system will bring showers and thunderstorms to the region.
This system may also bring a dusting of snow to the highest
mountain tops Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather conditions that meet reporting criteria for spotters will be
possible late this afternoon and evening over the southeast
plains, with the greatest threat over the far southeast plains
south of highway 50.

Hodanish

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
133 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ074-088-292015-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
133 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 215 PM MDT...

At 133 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gulnare, or 13 miles northwest of Trinidad, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad.

LAT...LON 3729 10476 3739 10470 3741 10437 3717 10445
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 292DEG 14KT 3732 10466

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
159 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ087-292045-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
159 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HUERFANO COUNTY UNTIL 245
PM MDT...

At 159 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Walsenburg, or 14 miles east of Spring Burn Scar north of Highway
160, moving southeast at 5 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Walsenburg.

LAT...LON 3763 10497 3773 10492 3769 10456 3748 10477
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 298DEG 5KT 3765 10487

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ086>088-292115-
Pueblo Vicinity/Pueblo County Below 6300 Feet CO-
Walsenburg Vicinity/Upper Huerfano River Basin Below 7500 Ft CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
223 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN HUERFANO...NORTH
CENTRAL LAS ANIMAS AND SOUTHEASTERN PUEBLO COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM
MDT...

At 223 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 16
miles northeast of Walsenburg, or 30 miles south of Pueblo, moving
east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Huerfano, north central Las Animas and southeastern Pueblo Counties.

LAT...LON 3778 10477 3790 10469 3790 10424 3762 10435
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 284DEG 16KT 3783 10461

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
232 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ074-088-094-292115-
Southern Sangre De Cristo Mountains Between 7500 and 11000 Ft CO-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
Trinidad Vicinity/Western Las Animas County Below 7500 Ft CO-
232 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 315 PM MDT...

At 232 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a cluster of strong
thunderstorm over Starkville, or near Trinidad, moving east at 25
mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Trinidad, Aguilar, Cokedale, Starkville, Gulnare, Model, Hoehne,
Tyrone and Trinchera.

LAT...LON 3717 10463 3738 10480 3753 10403 3700 10400
      3700 10462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 278DEG 21KT 3708 10452

kam

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
249 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

COZ094-292130-
Eastern Las Animas County CO-
249 PM MDT Sat Aug 29 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY
UNTIL 330 PM MDT...

At 249 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Branson, or 19 miles north of Des Moines, moving east
at 10 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Las
Animas County.

LAT...LON 3707 10384 3724 10339 3700 10332 3700 10382
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 255DEG 7KT 3704 10373

kam