Alert archive / New Jersey / Areal Flood Warnings in 2020

Areal Flood Warning 52, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

November 30, 20205 counties in New Jersey; Monroe County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood warning at Nov 30, 2020, 3:53 PM EST for 5 counties in New Jersey; Monroe County, Northampton County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 16 hr. 12 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 30, 2020, 3:53 PM EST (20:53 UTC)
Expired
Dec 1, 2020, 7:33 AM EST
In force
16 hr
Issued by
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
None

Counties Hunterdon County, NJ, Morris County, NJ, Somerset County, NJ, Sussex County, NJ, Warren County, NJ, Monroe County, PA, Northampton County, PA

The radar

The Philadelphia radar (KDIX), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:56 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 30, 4:20 PM ESTFLOODHope, NJROADWAY, POOR DRAINAGE, AND CREEK FLOODING IN HOPE, NJ.
Nov 30, 4:48 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 2.63Stroudsburg, PAREPORTED AT STROUDSBURG.
Nov 30, 5:00 PM ESTFLOOD2 W Stanton, NJTHE SOUTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER AT STANTON (STTN4) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 500 PM AND CRESTED AT 8.92 FEET AT 800 PM.
Nov 30, 6:00 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 2.434 Nw Bridgewater, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Nov 30, 7:15 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 2.371 S Towaco, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Nov 30, 7:45 PM ESTFLOOD1 Ese Branchburg Twp, NJTHE NORTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER AT SOUTH BRANCH (SBRN4) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 745 PM AND CRESTED AT 9.58 FEET AT 200 AM ON DECEMBER 1 (MODERATE FLOOD).
Nov 30, 8:15 PM ESTFLOOD1 Ne High Bridge, NJTHE SOUTH BRANCH RARITAN RIVER AT HIGH BRIDGE (HBRN4) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 815 PM AND CRESTED AT 10.37 FEET AT 1130 PM.
Nov 30, 9:40 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 2.37Tewksbury Twp, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Nov 30, 9:43 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 3.42Lebanon, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Nov 30, 10:10 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 2.45Wantage Twp, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Nov 30, 11:34 PM ESTHEAVY RAIN 3.16Bernardsville, NJSTORM TOTAL.
Dec 1, 6:45 AM ESTFLOODManville, NJTHE RARITAN RIVER AT MANVILLE (MNVN4) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 645 AM AND CRESTED AT 14.02 FEET AT 715 AM.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Brookhaven, NY (KOKX), launched 12:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 149 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2020-11-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brookhaven, NY at 12:00Z on 2020-11-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 306 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
958 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
58 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
306 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
408 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

251 
WGUS41 KPHI 302053
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
353 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJC019-027-035-037-041-PAC089-095-010245-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0052.201130T2053Z-201201T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-Morris NJ-Somerset NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-Monroe PA-
Northampton PA-
353 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Northampton County in eastern Pennsylvania...
  Southeastern Monroe County in northeastern Pennsylvania...

* Until 945 PM EST.

* At 353 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to 
  thunderstorms. Flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly in 
  the warned area.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Newton, Bridgewater, Dover, Madison, 
  Hopatcong, Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, East Stroudsburg, and 
  Hackettstown.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 15 and 38.
	Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 47.
	Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 308 and 314.
	Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 14 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most 
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4094 7542 4108 7501 4114 7492 4135 7469
      4120 7437 4109 7450 4108 7449 4104 7450
      4105 7445 4104 7443 4102 7443 4103 7442
      4101 7439 4100 7430 4098 7430 4097 7428
      4091 7433 4054 7458 4057 7494 4088 7504

$$

PO
7 follow-up statements
661 
WGUS41 KPHI 010102
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
802 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJC019-027-035-037-041-010345-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-Morris NJ-Somerset NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-
802 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Morris County in northern New Jersey...
  Northwestern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...
  South Central Sussex County in northwestern New Jersey...
  East Central Warren County in northwestern New Jersey...

* Until 1045 PM EST.

* At 802 PM EST, The heavy rains have ended, but flooding continues 
  across the area from the rains of earlier today.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Morristown, Somerville, Bridgewater, Dover, Madison, Hopatcong, 
  Bound Brook, Manville, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Boonton, and Butler.

This includes the following highways...
	Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 15 and 38.
	Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 24 and 46.
	Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 14 and 53.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most 
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4090 7479 4097 7462 4100 7460 4103 7455
      4103 7450 4105 7445 4104 7443 4102 7443
      4103 7442 4101 7439 4100 7430 4098 7430
      4097 7428 4091 7433 4054 7458 4057 7494
      4069 7497

$$

PO
662 
WGUS81 KPHI 010102
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
802 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

PAC089-095-010112-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Monroe PA-Northampton PA-
802 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN NORTHAMPTON AND 
SOUTHEASTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4090 7479 4097 7462 4100 7460 4103 7455
      4103 7450 4105 7445 4104 7443 4102 7443
      4103 7442 4101 7439 4100 7430 4098 7430
      4097 7428 4091 7433 4054 7458 4057 7494
      4069 7497

$$

PO
492 
WGUS41 KPHI 010310
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1010 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJC019-035-010700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-Somerset NJ-
1010 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...

* Until 200 AM EST.

* At 1010 PM EST, minor flooding was continuing on many streams and 
  creeks.

Some locations that may experience flooding include...
  Somerville, Bridgewater, Bound Brook, Manville, Mendham, High 
  Bridge, Clinton, Peapack And Gladstone, Glen Gardner, Hampton, 
  Lebanon, and Califon.

Water levels will decrease slowly overnight with most streams and 
creeks returning within their banks on Tuesday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 7494 4069 7497 4079 7489 4074 7483
      4074 7477 4072 7473 4076 7456 4073 7455
      4073 7453 4071 7453 4070 7451 4069 7452
      4068 7453 4067 7453 4065 7452 4065 7451
      4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

Iovino
491 
WGUS81 KPHI 010310
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1010 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJC027-037-041-010320-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T0345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morris NJ-Sussex NJ-Warren NJ-
1010 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR MORRIS, SOUTH CENTRAL SUSSEX, AND 
EAST CENTRAL WARREN COUNTIES...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4057 7494 4069 7497 4079 7489 4074 7483
      4074 7477 4072 7473 4076 7456 4073 7455
      4073 7453 4071 7453 4070 7451 4069 7452
      4068 7453 4067 7453 4065 7452 4065 7451
      4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

Iovino
419 
WGUS41 KPHI 010639
FLWPHI

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
139 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

NJC019-035-011300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-Somerset NJ-
139 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the

* Flood Warning for...
  Northwestern Somerset County in northern New Jersey...
  Northeastern Hunterdon County in northwestern New Jersey...

* Until 800 AM EST Tuesday.

* At 139 AM EST, flooding continues in portions of the warned area, 
  including on the North Branch and South Branch portions of the 
  Raritan River. The North Branch Raritan River gauge at South 
  Branch is currently reporting moderate flooding. Flooding will 
  likely continue for several more hours.

For South Branch Raritan River at High Bridge:
At 12:45am the stage was 10.28 feet.
Flood Stage is 10 feet.
...
For North Branch Raritan River at Raritan:
At 1:30am the stage was 9.0 feet.
Flood Stage is 10 feet.
...
For North Branch Raritan River at South Branch:
At 1:00am the stage was 9.46 feet.
Flood Stage is 8 feet.
...
For Raritan River 1 NE Manville at :
At 1:15am the stage was 12.78 feet.
Flood Stage is 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most 
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4057 7494 4069 7497 4079 7489 4074 7483
      4074 7477 4072 7473 4076 7456 4073 7455
      4073 7453 4071 7453 4070 7451 4069 7452
      4068 7453 4067 7453 4065 7452 4065 7451
      4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

CMS
158 
WGUS81 KPHI 011006
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
506 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

NJC019-011016-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hunterdon NJ-
506 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON COUNTY...

Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4055 7474 4057 7473 4058 7471 4059 7472
      4063 7470 4065 7451 4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

NJC035-011300-
/O.CON.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Somerset NJ-
506 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR 
CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

At 506 AM EST, gauge reports indicated flooding continued in 
portions of the warning area, including on the North Branch Raritan 
River. The gauge at South Branch remains in moderate flood at this 
time. Flooding is expected to continue for several more hours.

For North Branch Raritan River at South Branch:
At 4:00am the stage was 9.32 feet.
Flood Stage is 8 feet.

For North Branch Raritan River at Raritan:
At 4:30am the stage was 8.04 feet.
Flood Stage is 10 feet.

For Raritan River 1 NE Manville at :
At 4:15am the stage was 13.63 feet.
Flood Stage is 14 feet.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most 
flood deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 4055 7474 4057 7473 4058 7471 4059 7472
      4063 7470 4065 7451 4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

CMS
394 
WGUS81 KPHI 011233
FLSPHI

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
733 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

NJC035-011243-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0052.000000T0000Z-201201T1300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Somerset NJ-
733 AM EST Tue Dec 1 2020

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY...

Flood waters are receding on the North Branch Raritan River. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.

There is a separate river flood warning in effect for the mainstem 
Raritan at Manville.

LAT...LON 4055 7474 4057 7473 4058 7471 4059 7472
      4063 7470 4065 7451 4066 7450 4054 7458

$$

Kruzdlo

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Nov 30, 2:21 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 2:21 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
221 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong surface low will lift from the Southeast early this
morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight, where it will
stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern
Canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will
build northeastward into the eastern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday
before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system
may affect the region this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of the forecast area.

Rest of the afternoon: The surface low is now located over north-
central PA and at least the southern half or so of our area resides
in the narrow warm sector associated with this cyclone. This
is evidenced by widespread temperatures south of I-95 in the mid to
upper 60s (around 70 in GED), with dewpoints generally in the low to
mid 60s... essentially a subtropical airmass (makes sense given that
this airmass was located over the GOM only 18-24 hours ago). The dry
slot associated with the system is very evident on WV and is
punching into western portions of the area as we speak. The drier
mid-lvl air will steepen mid-lvl lapse rates and these steeper lapse
rates overtop the subtropical airmass will result in at least a few
hundred J/kg (maybe even closer to a 1000 if you believe some of the
more bullish guidance) of CAPE this afternoon. Low-lvl wind profiles
remain impressive with latest SPC mesoanalysis indicating about
50kts of 0-3km shear, and over 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-1SRH (although
these values will start to decrease a bit over the next few hours as
the LLJ progresses north).

Both of these factors point to at least a conditional low-topped
severe wind and tornado threat for a window through about 6-7PM. The
threat is somewhat limited by the lack of forcing (the closed mid-
lvl low is well upstream of the area), and the warm advection aloft
(which supported the earlier rainfall) has largely ceased. That
being said CAMs still indicate at least scattered convection forming
over western portions of our area this afternoon with some
disagreement over whether these will tend discrete (e.g. low-topped
supercells) or more organized multi-cell/linear. By early this
evening everything should lift northeast as the cold front moves in,
and drier air wins out. Synoptic winds will also decrease as the low
slowly lifts north so feel confident that the wind advisory can be
axed by 6PM if not earlier.

Tonight: A fairly quiet night is expected under continued cold air
advection. Can't totally rule out some patchy fog/drizzle given the
antecedent rainfall but ideally the drier SW flow will limit this
potential. Lows should run in the upper 30s to mid 40s with
continued cold advection.

Tuesday: The cold core mid-lvl low will meander over our area on
Tuesday which will probably support at least BKN-OVC cloud cover,
and a chance for some showery precipitation. Think that precip will
be most likely over the Poconos, closer to the wrap around precip
and residual LE streamers (although the 850 flow direction is not
particularly favorable for our area). Given considerable cold
advection during the day expect that a changeover to mix or snow
will be possible during the day over the Poconos. However, don't
expect much in the way of accumulations unless precip lingers into
Tuesday night when temperatures cool down. We should also mix fairly
well during the day tomorrow so expect breezy conditions with wind
gusts 25-30mph possible, with stratocu also becoming quite abundant
during the daytime hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The large-scale pattern changes little Tuesday night and
Wednesday, though the pressure gradient should be on a
diminishing trend during this period. Nevertheless, another
breezy day should be expected Wednesday, and periodic bouts of
snow showers may occur in the Poconos. Models continue to look a
little on the dry side in our northwest CWA, and the proximity
of model-derived QPF is concerning enough to keep a mention of
snow showers in Carbon and Monroe Counties through Wednesday.
Again, not expecting anything significant, but occasional light
snow showers seem probable during this period.

Wednesday will be colder than Tuesday, as cold advection
continues to the south of the stalled cyclone. Expect
highs in 30s in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey and in
the 40s elsewhere. By Wednesday night, the low to our north will
begin to accelerate northward into eastern Canada, as it is
kicked by a digging vort max in Ontario. This will allow a
surface high in the Southeast to build northeastward toward the
Eastern Seaboard. As winds diminish in this pattern, a good
night of radiational cooling is expected. Trended lows downward
Wednesday night, now firmly below model consensus.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern for the medium-range forecast is the ultimate
evolution of the large-scale pattern Friday through Sunday.

Quiet weather is expected Thursday, as midlevel ridging begins
to affect the area. With rising heights, expect highs to be a
little warmer than Wednesday, with winds lighter.

Model agreement goes off the rails Friday through the weekend,
with run-to-run and model-to-model consistency seemingly absent
for the past 48 hours. Models are really struggling with three
distinct synoptic-scale features of interest: (1) a digging vort
max in eastern Canada and the adjacent Northeast on Thursday and
Friday, (2) a southern-stream perturbation that ejects eastward
and interacts with the eastern Canada vort max, and (3) another
digging vort max from central Canada, which acts to kick (1) and
(2) eastward with time.

The GFS and CMC solutions look somewhat similar to each other
but nothing similar to their simulations from 24 hours ago, with
a somewhat progressive/elongated system moving through the
eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. This scenario poses a
precipitation risk as early as Thursday night, with temperatures
perhaps cold enough at onset for a wintry mix northwest of the
Fall Line. The GFS is much deeper with the system, though, and
ejects it on a farther-east track, which would be even more
favorable for some wintry precipitation in the northwest CWA.
Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF does not look remotely similar, with
the southern-stream system shoved south of the area given the
faster timing of the northern-stream vort max. This behavior was
seen to some degree in last night's simulation, but the
antecedent 12z counterpart solutions looked nothing like this
pattern evolution. Given ensemble output, this solution seems
lower probability but cannot be ruled out entirely.

The bottom line is that the Friday through Sunday period has the
potential to be unsettled in our area, but there is little
confidence in the sensible-weather details at this stage. A
broad brush of slight-to-chance PoPs and temperatures near
seasonal averages is appropriate at this stage. Eventually, the
deterministic models develop a strong storm in the western
Atlantic and/or New England early next week, which would spell
windy conditions and potential for some showery precipitation
(perhaps of the wintry variety).

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Rest of today...Prevailing MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR
possible. Moderate to locally heavy rain in additions to
scattered thunderstorms through this afternoon will briefly
lower conditions to IFR/LIFR. Southerly winds around 15 to 20
knots with gusts around 25 to 35 knots through this afternoon,
will start to drop off this evening. LLWS will continue through
20Z, tapering off through 22Z as the LLJ passes to the east of
the area. Generally high confidence with lower confidence of
timing of category changes and convection.

Tonight...All showers are expected to diminish in coverage by
00Z and only a few light passing showers may remain after 00Z.
Otherwise, mainly MVFR conditions through around 03Z, lifting to
VFR for the overnight period. Southwest winds around 5 to 10
knots. Moderate confidence.

Tuesday...MVFR ceilings possible, mainly in the morning due to
showers, especially north and west of KPHL. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions to prevail. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots
with gusts around 20 to 30 knots. Moderate confidence.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR with west or southwest winds
5 to 15 kt, with gusts to 20+ kt on Wednesday. High confidence.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with west to southwest winds
5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday night and Friday...Restrictions possible with a chance
of rain. There is some potential for a wintry mix northwest of
PHL. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Very low confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale conditions will continue over at least the northern waters
for at least a few more hours, will reassess later this
afternoon to see if it can be cancelled earlier than its
expiration time of 03Z. Otherwise SCA conditions will prevail
through Tuesday with seas remaining rather elevated (10-12 ft this
afternoon then more 8-10ft tonight into Tuesday). Gusts will relax
overnight before increasing again to around 30 kts on Tuesday. Can't
totally rule out a few isolated gales on Tuesday but don't think
these will be overly widespread or long lasting.

Outlook...

Tuesday night and Wednesday...Advisory conditions probable,
with winds west to southwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Seas 6 to 9 feet Tuesday night and 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday,
subsiding with time.

Wednesday night...Advisory conditions possible, with west winds
10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas 3 to 5 feet.

Thursday through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

For the Little Assawoman Bay and the Barnegat Bay, levels
continue to rise. We have issued a Coastal Flood Statement
through this evening and will continue to monitor these areas.

The tidal Delaware River: The surge of water up the Delaware
Bay combined with increasing freshwater runoff has yielded
tidal levels higher than guidance was suggesting. As a result,
tidal levels have risen above advisory levels and a Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued and is in effect through 5 PM.

The eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay: Strong southeast winds
combined with a later high tide seem to suggest minor flooding
is possible, if not probable, in tidal portions of eastern
Maryland. Will monitor observations closely, with an advisory
issuance possible if upstream (lower bay) observations confirm
suspicions that models are underforecasting this potential. High
tide is late this afternoon and early this evening in these
areas.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ012>014-020-
     026-027.
     Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     NJZ017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.
     Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431.

&&

Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...Carr
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Carr
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHI
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 30, 2:24 PM EST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-011930-
Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east
central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into
early this evening. These showers and storms will be capable of
producing damaging winds.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ009-010-015-PAZ101>105-011930-
Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Western Chester-Eastern Chester-
Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern
New Jersey, northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

PAZ106-011930-
Lower Bucks-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ012-011930-
Middlesex-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-011930-
New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern
Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-011930-
Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey and
southeast Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Coastal Flood Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ013-014-020-026-027-011930-
Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean-
Southeastern Burlington-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

NJZ022-025-011930-
Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

DEZ003-004-NJZ023-024-011930-
Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and
southern New Jersey.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ450>455-011930-
Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

ANZ430-431-011930-
Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE-
224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
conditions according to standard operating procedures.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 30, 1:36 PM EST, 2 hours 17 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1258 PM     FLOOD            1 NNW WHITE HOUSE STATI 40.63N 74.78W
11/30/2020                   HUNTERDON          NJ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            US HWY 22 WEST, NEAR VAN HORNE ROAD IS
            CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN READINGTON TWP.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 30, 1:41 PM EST, 2 hours 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLOOD            3 WSW CLOVERHILL        40.47N 74.83W
11/30/2020                   HUNTERDON          NJ   OTHER FEDERAL

            THE NESHANIC RIVER AT REAVILLE EXCEEDED ITS
            FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET AT 1:15 PM.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 30, 2:19 PM EST, 1 hour 34 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WNW BETHLEHEM TWP     40.67N 75.03W
11/30/2020                   HUNTERDON          NJ   EMERGENCY MNGR

            DAMAGE TO TREES AND WIRES ALONG ASBURY WEST
            PORTAL ROAD IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

NC
Local storm report, Nov 30, 2:29 PM EST, 1 hour 24 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0200 PM     FLOOD            EAST GREENVILLE         40.41N 75.50W
11/30/2020                   MONTGOMERY         PA   OTHER FEDERAL

            PERKIOMEN CREEK AT EAST GREENVILLE, PA
            EXCEEDED ITS FLOOD STATE OF 4 FEET AT 2 PM.

&&
Local storm report, Nov 30, 2:30 PM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     FLOOD            NEWTOWN SQUARE          39.99N 75.40W
11/30/2020                   DELAWARE           PA   OTHER FEDERAL

            CRUM CREEK AT NEWTOWN SQUARE EXCEEDED ITS
            FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET AT 12 PM.

&&
Special weather statement, Nov 30, 2:34 PM EST, 1 hour 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
234 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

NJZ001-007>010-302030-
Morris-Hunterdon-Sussex-Somerset-Warren-
234 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020

...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT MORRIS...NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...CENTRAL
SUSSEX...EAST CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...

At 233 PM EST, a shower was located over Chester, or 11 miles west of
Morristown, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this shower.

Locations impacted include...
Newton, Dover, Hopatcong, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Butler, Wharton,
Rockaway, Mount Arlington, Franklin, Mendham, Mountain Lakes,
Stanhope, Hamburg, Netcong, Peapack And Gladstone, Ogdensburg,
Sussex, Chester and Victory Gardens.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 23 and 26.
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 19 and 40.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

LAT...LON 4120 7436 4109 7450 4107 7449 4104 7450
      4105 7445 4102 7443 4103 7442 4100 7433
      4061 7477 4080 7491 4131 7459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 228DEG 30KT 4081 7471

JEO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 30, 12:52 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIAtlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 5 more92 min
Nov 30, 1:28 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIHunterdon, Warren2 hr
Nov 30, 2:01 PM ESTCoastal Flood StatementPHIOcean3 hr
Nov 30, 2:01 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset9 hr
Nov 30, 2:18 PM ESTCoastal Flood AdvisoryPHIBurlington, Camden, Gloucester2 hr
Nov 30, 2:34 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementPHIMorris, Sussex56 min
Nov 30, 2:48 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIGloucester, Salem8 hr
Nov 30, 3:01 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIGloucester, Salem44 min
Nov 30, 3:26 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren4 hr
Nov 30, 3:37 PM ESTSpecial Marine WarningPHI38 min
Nov 30, 3:43 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIHunterdon, Warren47 min
Nov 30, 3:47 PM ESTTornado WarningPHICumberland, Salem28 min
Nov 30, 3:53 PM ESTTornado WarningPHIHunterdon13 min
Nov 30, 3:58 PM ESTSmall Craft AdvisoryPHI56 hr
Nov 30, 4:17 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHICamden, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex10 hr
Nov 30, 4:49 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHICamden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem41 min
Nov 30, 5:05 PM ESTSpecial Marine WarningPHI40 min
Nov 30, 5:29 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIMercer, Middlesex, Somerset46 min
Nov 30, 5:36 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningPHIHunterdon, Somerset7 hr
Nov 30, 12:15 PM ESTAreal Flood AdvisoryPHIChester, Delaware3 hr
Nov 30, 12:41 PM ESTSpecial Weather StatementPHIChester, Montgomery49 min
Nov 30, 2:17 PM ESTAreal Flood WarningPHIBerks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery9 hr
Nov 30, 2:41 PM ESTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPHIChester, Delaware49 min
Nov 30, 3:51 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester14 hr
Nov 30, 5:30 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningPHIChester, Delaware16 hr
Nov 30, 5:33 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningPHIMontgomery10 hr
Nov 30, 5:35 PM ESTRiver Flood WarningPHIDelaware4 hr

Nearby

Areal Flood Warnings in New Jersey, 2020Areal Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2020Every areal flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.