Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Areal Flood Warnings in 2020
Areal Flood Warning 50, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued this areal flood warning at Nov 30, 2020, 2:48 PM EST for 4 states. It was in force for 8 hr. 26 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 30, 2020, 2:48 PM EST (19:48 UTC)
- Expired
- Nov 30, 2020, 10:49 PM EST
- In force
- 8 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
- Flood severity
- None
Counties New Castle County, DE, Kent County, MD, Gloucester County, NJ, Salem County, NJ, Chester County, PA, Delaware County, PA, Montgomery County, PA
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 111 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 3:30 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 Nne Marshallton, PA | THE EAST BRANCH BRANDYWINE CREEK BELOW DOWNINGTOWN REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 330 PM AND CRESTED AT 9.03 FEET AT 745 PM (MODERATE FLOOD). |
| Nov 30, 3:30 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 S Kennett Square, PA | SEVERE FLOODING AND DOWNED TREES IN THE QUAIL LANE AREA. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 3:30 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Se Honey Brook Twp, PA | THE WEST BRANCH BRANDYWINE CREEK AT HONEY BROOK (HNBP1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 330 PM AND CRESTED AT 8.58 FEET AT 545 PM. |
| Nov 30, 3:30 PM EST | FLOOD | Wooddale, DE | THE RED CLAY CREEK AT WOODDALE (RCCD1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 330 PM AND CRESTED AT 9.37 FEET AT 800 PM (MODERATE FLOOD). |
| Nov 30, 3:36 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 Nne South Coatesville, PA | VEHICLE STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON FOUNDRY STREET. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 3:45 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 Ese East Whiteland Tw, PA | MULTIPLE VEHICLES STRANDED IN FLOOD WATERS ON SWEDESFORD ROAD. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 3:45 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 S Brookside, DE | THE CHRISTINA RIVER AT COOCHS BRIDGE (CHBD1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 345 PM AND CRESTED AT 12.38 FEET AT 745 PM (MODERATE FLOOD). |
| Nov 30, 3:45 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Sse Kennett Square, PA | THE RED CLAY CREEK GAUGE AT KENNETT SQUARE (KNSP1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 345 PM AND CRESTED AT 7.91 FEET AT 415 PM. |
| Nov 30, 3:46 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Ese Exton, PA | WATER RESCUE ON WOODBANK WAY. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 4:02 PM EST | FLOOD | Coatesville, PA | FLOODING ON MAPLE AVENUE FORCED ITS CLOSURE. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 4:26 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Ssw Malvern, PA | DOWNED TREE AND WIRES ON PAOLI PIKE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR. |
| Nov 30, 4:30 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 Sse Eastburn Heights, DE | THE WHITE CLAY CREEK AT NEWARK (DPKD1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 430 PM AND CRESTED AT 14.15 FEET AT 645 PM. |
| Nov 30, 4:30 PM EST | FLOOD | Villanova, PA | FLOODED ROADWAYS IN VILLANOVA AREA. |
| Nov 30, 4:51 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Sw King Of Prussia, PA | OLD EAGLE SCHOOL ROAD CLOSED FROM FLOODING. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 4:55 PM EST | FLOOD | Westtown, PA | WATER RESCUE ON WESTTOWN THORNTON ROAD. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 5:25 PM EST | FLOOD | 3 N Homeville, PA | VEHICLE STUCK IN FLOOD WATERS ON SCHOFF ROAD. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 6:00 PM EST | FLOOD | Green Ridge, PA | THE CHESTER CREEK GAUGE NEAR CHESTER CRESTED ABOVE FLOOD STAGE AT 8.19 FEET AT 600 PM. |
| Nov 30, 6:00 PM EST | HEAVY RAIN 3.4 | West Caln Twp, PA | STORM TOTAL. |
| Nov 30, 6:03 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 Se Honey Brook Twp, PA | WATER RESCUE ON SOUTH BIRDELL ROAD. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 6:07 PM EST | FLOOD | 1 Ese Ashland, DE | FLOODING ON CREEK ROAD BETWEEN THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE AND MOUNT CUBA ROAD. ROAD CLOSED. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 6:30 PM EST | FLOOD | Chadds Ford Twp, PA | BRANDYWINE CREEK AT CHADDS FORD (CDFP1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 630 PM AND CRESTED AT 9.91 FEET AT 1215 AM ON DECEMBER 1. |
| Nov 30, 6:43 PM EST | FLOOD | Wooddale, DE | FLOODING ON BARLEY MILL ROAD BETWEEN ROLLING MILL ROAD AND SPRING VALLEY ROAD. ROAD CLOSED. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 7:04 PM EST | FLOOD | 2 S Warwick Twp, PA | WATER RESCUE ON CONESTOGA ROAD. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 7:09 PM EST | FLOOD | Ashland, DE | SHARPLESS ROAD CLOSED SOUTH OF CREEK ROAD FROM FLOODING. TIME BASED ON DISPATCH REPORT. |
| Nov 30, 8:00 PM EST | FLOOD | Westfield, DE | THE RED CLAY CREEK AT STANTON (STND1) REACHED FLOOD STAGE AT 800 PM AND CRESTED AT 17.24 FEET AT 900 PM. |
| Nov 30, 8:20 PM EST | HEAVY RAIN 1.91 | Media, PA | STORM TOTAL. |
Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 7.8 hours before the alert went out and 166 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 498 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 56 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 384 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 623 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
349
WGUS41 KPHI 301948
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
248 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
DEC003-MDC029-NJC015-033-PAC029-045-091-302345-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FA.W.0050.201130T1948Z-201130T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Kent MD-Gloucester NJ-Salem NJ-Chester PA-Delaware PA-
Montgomery PA-
248 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a
* Flood Warning for...
New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Northeastern Kent County in northeastern Maryland...
Northwestern Gloucester County in southern New Jersey...
Northwestern Salem County in southern New Jersey...
Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
South Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
* Until 645 PM EST.
* At 248 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated a large area of moderate to
heavy rains about to move across areas that received heavy rains
earlier today. A few scattered thunderstorms will also create
excessive rainfall at times. Flooding is ongoing or expected to
begin shortly in the warned area.
Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Wilmington, Newark, Middletown, West Chester, Chester,
Phoenixville, Pennsville, Coatesville, Westtown, Carneys Point,
Downingtown, and Folcroft.
This includes the following highways...
Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 301 and 326.
Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 10.
Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 0 and 23.
Interstate 295 in New Jersey between mile markers 0 and 6.
Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 13.
Rains will affect the evening rush hour across the Philadelphia
suburbs area. Prepare for a slower than normal commute this evening.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3972 7579 3972 7613 3973 7609 3975 7610
3976 7606 3983 7602 3985 7602 3987 7599
3995 7599 4004 7593 4011 7594 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3986 7527 3978 7540
3936 7551 3929 7577 3937 7584 3938 7577
$$
PO5 follow-up statements
333
WGUS41 KPHI 302332
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
632 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
DEC003-PAC029-045-091-010145-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201201T0145Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Chester PA-Delaware PA-Montgomery PA-
632 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the
* Flood Warning for...
Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
South Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
* Until 845 PM EST.
* At 632 PM EST, While the heavy rains have ended, areas of flooding
are ongoing across the warned area.
Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Wilmington, Newark, West Chester, Chester, Phoenixville,
Coatesville, Westtown, Downingtown, Swarthmore, Elsmere, Kennett
Square, and New Castle.
This includes the following highways...
Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 301 and 326.
Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 9.
Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 1 and 23.
Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 327.
Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 14.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3977 7589 3982 7593 3988 7593 3989 7594
3997 7595 4002 7590 4011 7593 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3987 7529 3980 7542
3980 7541 3975 7548 3960 7564 3956 7570
3956 7578 3972 7579
$$
PO334
WGUS81 KPHI 302332
FLSPHI
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
632 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
MDC029-NJC015-033-302342-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201130T2345Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kent MD-Gloucester NJ-Salem NJ-
632 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN KENT, NORTHWESTERN
GLOUCESTER, AND NORTHWESTERN SALEM COUNTIES...
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.
LAT...LON 3977 7589 3982 7593 3988 7593 3989 7594
3997 7595 4002 7590 4011 7593 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3987 7529 3980 7542
3980 7541 3975 7548 3960 7564 3956 7570
3956 7578 3972 7579
$$
PO817
WGUS41 KPHI 010121
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
821 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
DEC003-PAC029-045-091-010300-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201201T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Chester PA-Delaware PA-Montgomery PA-
821 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the
* Flood Warning for...
Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
South Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
* Until 1000 PM EST.
* At 821 PM EST, Gauge reports indicated heavy rain fell due to
thunderstorms. Flooding is already occurring in the warned area.
For Brandywine Creek at Chadds Ford:
At 7:30pm the stage was 9.25 feet.
Flood Stage is 9 feet.
...
For Christina River at Coochs Bridge:
At 7:15pm the stage was 12.33 feet.
Flood Stage is 11 feet.
...
For Chester Creek at Chester:
At 7:46pm the stage was 7.43 feet.
Flood Stage is 8 feet.
...
For White Clay Creek 4 E Newark at :
At 7:46pm the stage was 13.89 feet.
Flood Stage is 13 feet.
...
For East Branch Brandywine Creek at Downingtown:
At 7:45pm the stage was 9.03 feet.
Flood Stage is 7 feet.
...
For West Branch Brandywine Creek at Honey Brook:
At 8:01pm the stage was 7.96 feet.
Flood Stage is 7 feet.
...
For Red Clay Creek at Wooddale:
At 7:45pm the stage was 9.35 feet.
Flood Stage is 7 feet.
...
For Red Clay Creek at Stanton:
At 7:46pm the stage was 16.91 feet.
Flood Stage is 17 feet.
...
For Brandywine Creek at Wilmington:
At 7:15pm the stage was 14.96 feet.
Flood Stage is 16.5 feet.
This includes the following highways...
Pennsylvania Turnpike between exits 301 and 326.
Interstate 95 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 9.
Interstate 95 in Delaware between mile markers 1 and 23.
Interstate 76 in Pennsylvania near mile marker 327.
Interstate 476 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 0 and 14.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around...don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most
flood deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3977 7589 3982 7593 3988 7593 3989 7594
3997 7595 4002 7590 4011 7593 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3987 7529 3980 7542
3980 7541 3975 7548 3960 7564 3956 7570
3956 7578 3972 7579
$$
BAH595
WGUS41 KPHI 010252
FLWPHI
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
DEC003-PAC029-045-091-010700-
/O.EXT.KPHI.FA.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201201T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Chester PA-Delaware PA-Montgomery PA-
952 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has extended the
* Flood Warning for...
Northern New Castle County in northern Delaware...
Chester County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
Delaware County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
South Central Montgomery County in southeastern Pennsylvania...
* Until 200 AM EST.
* At 952 PM EST, minor to moderate flooding was continuing on many
streams and creeks.
Water levels will decrease slowly overnight with most streams and
creeks returning within their banks on Tuesday morning.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
&&
LAT...LON 3977 7589 3982 7593 3988 7593 3989 7594
3997 7595 4002 7590 4011 7593 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3987 7529 3980 7542
3980 7541 3975 7548 3960 7564 3956 7570
3956 7578 3972 7579
$$
Iovino679
WGUS81 KPHI 010349
FLSPHI
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1049 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
DEC003-PAC029-045-091-010359-
/O.CAN.KPHI.FA.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201201T0700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
New Castle DE-Chester PA-Delaware PA-Montgomery PA-
1049 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHERN NEW CASTLE, CHESTER,
DELAWARE, AND SOUTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY COUNTIES...
Flood Warnings continue on parts of the Brandywine Creek in Chester
County. Otherwise, flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat.
Please continue to heed remaining road closures.
LAT...LON 3977 7589 3982 7593 3988 7593 3989 7594
3997 7595 4002 7590 4011 7593 4024 7566
4007 7537 4000 7530 3987 7529 3980 7542
3980 7541 3975 7548 3960 7564 3956 7570
3956 7578 3972 7579
$$
IovinoWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this areal flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly wrote its last area forecast discussion before this areal flood warning went out at Nov 30, 2:21 PM EST, 27 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 2:21 PM EST, 27 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
221 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong surface low will lift from the Southeast early this
morning to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight, where it will
stall through Wednesday before continuing northward into eastern
Canada late this week. High pressure in the system's wake will
build northeastward into the eastern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday
before moving offshore Thursday night and Friday. Another system
may affect the region this weekend into early next week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A Tornado Watch is in effect for portions of the forecast area.
Rest of the afternoon: The surface low is now located over north-
central PA and at least the southern half or so of our area resides
in the narrow warm sector associated with this cyclone. This
is evidenced by widespread temperatures south of I-95 in the mid to
upper 60s (around 70 in GED), with dewpoints generally in the low to
mid 60s... essentially a subtropical airmass (makes sense given that
this airmass was located over the GOM only 18-24 hours ago). The dry
slot associated with the system is very evident on WV and is
punching into western portions of the area as we speak. The drier
mid-lvl air will steepen mid-lvl lapse rates and these steeper lapse
rates overtop the subtropical airmass will result in at least a few
hundred J/kg (maybe even closer to a 1000 if you believe some of the
more bullish guidance) of CAPE this afternoon. Low-lvl wind profiles
remain impressive with latest SPC mesoanalysis indicating about
50kts of 0-3km shear, and over 300-400 m2/s2 of 0-1SRH (although
these values will start to decrease a bit over the next few hours as
the LLJ progresses north).
Both of these factors point to at least a conditional low-topped
severe wind and tornado threat for a window through about 6-7PM. The
threat is somewhat limited by the lack of forcing (the closed mid-
lvl low is well upstream of the area), and the warm advection aloft
(which supported the earlier rainfall) has largely ceased. That
being said CAMs still indicate at least scattered convection forming
over western portions of our area this afternoon with some
disagreement over whether these will tend discrete (e.g. low-topped
supercells) or more organized multi-cell/linear. By early this
evening everything should lift northeast as the cold front moves in,
and drier air wins out. Synoptic winds will also decrease as the low
slowly lifts north so feel confident that the wind advisory can be
axed by 6PM if not earlier.
Tonight: A fairly quiet night is expected under continued cold air
advection. Can't totally rule out some patchy fog/drizzle given the
antecedent rainfall but ideally the drier SW flow will limit this
potential. Lows should run in the upper 30s to mid 40s with
continued cold advection.
Tuesday: The cold core mid-lvl low will meander over our area on
Tuesday which will probably support at least BKN-OVC cloud cover,
and a chance for some showery precipitation. Think that precip will
be most likely over the Poconos, closer to the wrap around precip
and residual LE streamers (although the 850 flow direction is not
particularly favorable for our area). Given considerable cold
advection during the day expect that a changeover to mix or snow
will be possible during the day over the Poconos. However, don't
expect much in the way of accumulations unless precip lingers into
Tuesday night when temperatures cool down. We should also mix fairly
well during the day tomorrow so expect breezy conditions with wind
gusts 25-30mph possible, with stratocu also becoming quite abundant
during the daytime hours.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The large-scale pattern changes little Tuesday night and
Wednesday, though the pressure gradient should be on a
diminishing trend during this period. Nevertheless, another
breezy day should be expected Wednesday, and periodic bouts of
snow showers may occur in the Poconos. Models continue to look a
little on the dry side in our northwest CWA, and the proximity
of model-derived QPF is concerning enough to keep a mention of
snow showers in Carbon and Monroe Counties through Wednesday.
Again, not expecting anything significant, but occasional light
snow showers seem probable during this period.
Wednesday will be colder than Tuesday, as cold advection
continues to the south of the stalled cyclone. Expect
highs in 30s in the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey and in
the 40s elsewhere. By Wednesday night, the low to our north will
begin to accelerate northward into eastern Canada, as it is
kicked by a digging vort max in Ontario. This will allow a
surface high in the Southeast to build northeastward toward the
Eastern Seaboard. As winds diminish in this pattern, a good
night of radiational cooling is expected. Trended lows downward
Wednesday night, now firmly below model consensus.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The main concern for the medium-range forecast is the ultimate
evolution of the large-scale pattern Friday through Sunday.
Quiet weather is expected Thursday, as midlevel ridging begins
to affect the area. With rising heights, expect highs to be a
little warmer than Wednesday, with winds lighter.
Model agreement goes off the rails Friday through the weekend,
with run-to-run and model-to-model consistency seemingly absent
for the past 48 hours. Models are really struggling with three
distinct synoptic-scale features of interest: (1) a digging vort
max in eastern Canada and the adjacent Northeast on Thursday and
Friday, (2) a southern-stream perturbation that ejects eastward
and interacts with the eastern Canada vort max, and (3) another
digging vort max from central Canada, which acts to kick (1) and
(2) eastward with time.
The GFS and CMC solutions look somewhat similar to each other
but nothing similar to their simulations from 24 hours ago, with
a somewhat progressive/elongated system moving through the
eastern U.S. Friday and Saturday. This scenario poses a
precipitation risk as early as Thursday night, with temperatures
perhaps cold enough at onset for a wintry mix northwest of the
Fall Line. The GFS is much deeper with the system, though, and
ejects it on a farther-east track, which would be even more
favorable for some wintry precipitation in the northwest CWA.
Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF does not look remotely similar, with
the southern-stream system shoved south of the area given the
faster timing of the northern-stream vort max. This behavior was
seen to some degree in last night's simulation, but the
antecedent 12z counterpart solutions looked nothing like this
pattern evolution. Given ensemble output, this solution seems
lower probability but cannot be ruled out entirely.
The bottom line is that the Friday through Sunday period has the
potential to be unsettled in our area, but there is little
confidence in the sensible-weather details at this stage. A
broad brush of slight-to-chance PoPs and temperatures near
seasonal averages is appropriate at this stage. Eventually, the
deterministic models develop a strong storm in the western
Atlantic and/or New England early next week, which would spell
windy conditions and potential for some showery precipitation
(perhaps of the wintry variety).
&&
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.
Rest of today...Prevailing MVFR ceilings with periods of IFR
possible. Moderate to locally heavy rain in additions to
scattered thunderstorms through this afternoon will briefly
lower conditions to IFR/LIFR. Southerly winds around 15 to 20
knots with gusts around 25 to 35 knots through this afternoon,
will start to drop off this evening. LLWS will continue through
20Z, tapering off through 22Z as the LLJ passes to the east of
the area. Generally high confidence with lower confidence of
timing of category changes and convection.
Tonight...All showers are expected to diminish in coverage by
00Z and only a few light passing showers may remain after 00Z.
Otherwise, mainly MVFR conditions through around 03Z, lifting to
VFR for the overnight period. Southwest winds around 5 to 10
knots. Moderate confidence.
Tuesday...MVFR ceilings possible, mainly in the morning due to
showers, especially north and west of KPHL. Otherwise, expect
VFR conditions to prevail. Southwest winds around 10 to 15 knots
with gusts around 20 to 30 knots. Moderate confidence.
Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...VFR with west or southwest winds
5 to 15 kt, with gusts to 20+ kt on Wednesday. High confidence.
Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR with west to southwest winds
5 to 15 kt. Moderate confidence.
Thursday night and Friday...Restrictions possible with a chance
of rain. There is some potential for a wintry mix northwest of
PHL. West to southwest winds 5 to 15 kt. Very low confidence.
&&
.MARINE...
Gale conditions will continue over at least the northern waters
for at least a few more hours, will reassess later this
afternoon to see if it can be cancelled earlier than its
expiration time of 03Z. Otherwise SCA conditions will prevail
through Tuesday with seas remaining rather elevated (10-12 ft this
afternoon then more 8-10ft tonight into Tuesday). Gusts will relax
overnight before increasing again to around 30 kts on Tuesday. Can't
totally rule out a few isolated gales on Tuesday but don't think
these will be overly widespread or long lasting.
Outlook...
Tuesday night and Wednesday...Advisory conditions probable,
with winds west to southwest 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt.
Seas 6 to 9 feet Tuesday night and 4 to 7 feet on Wednesday,
subsiding with time.
Wednesday night...Advisory conditions possible, with west winds
10 to 20 kt with higher gusts. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday through Friday...Sub-advisory conditions expected.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Little Assawoman Bay and the Barnegat Bay, levels
continue to rise. We have issued a Coastal Flood Statement
through this evening and will continue to monitor these areas.
The tidal Delaware River: The surge of water up the Delaware
Bay combined with increasing freshwater runoff has yielded
tidal levels higher than guidance was suggesting. As a result,
tidal levels have risen above advisory levels and a Coastal
Flood Advisory has been issued and is in effect through 5 PM.
The eastern shore of Chesapeake Bay: Strong southeast winds
combined with a later high tide seem to suggest minor flooding
is possible, if not probable, in tidal portions of eastern
Maryland. Will monitor observations closely, with an advisory
issuance possible if upstream (lower bay) observations confirm
suspicions that models are underforecasting this potential. High
tide is late this afternoon and early this evening in these
areas.
&&
.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
PAZ070-071-106.
NJ...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for NJZ012>014-020-
026-027.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
NJZ017>019.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for ANZ450>455.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ430-431.
&&
Synopsis...CMS
Near Term...Carr
Short Term...CMS
Long Term...CMS
Aviation...CMS/Meola
Marine...CMS/Carr
Tides/Coastal Flooding...WFO PHIHazardous weather outlook, Nov 30, 2:24 PM EST, 24 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-011930- Sussex-Warren-Morris-Carbon-Monroe-Berks-Lehigh-Northampton- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey, east central Pennsylvania and northeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into early this evening. These showers and storms will be capable of producing damaging winds. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ009-010-015-PAZ101>105-011930- Hunterdon-Somerset-Mercer-Western Chester-Eastern Chester- Western Montgomery-Eastern Montgomery-Upper Bucks- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey, northern New Jersey, northwest New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. PAZ106-011930- Lower Bucks- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ012-011930- Middlesex- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ001-002-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ016-021-011930- New Castle-Kent-Kent MD-Queen Annes-Talbot-Caroline-Salem-Cumberland- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Delaware, northern Delaware, northeast Maryland and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NJZ017>019-PAZ070-071-011930- Gloucester-Camden-Northwestern Burlington-Delaware-Philadelphia- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey and southeast Pennsylvania. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Coastal Flood Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ013-014-020-026-027-011930- Western Monmouth-Eastern Monmouth-Ocean-Coastal Ocean- Southeastern Burlington- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central New Jersey and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. NJZ022-025-011930- Atlantic-Coastal Atlantic- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. DEZ003-004-NJZ023-024-011930- Inland Sussex-Delaware Beaches-Cape May-Atlantic Coastal Cape May- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Delaware and southern New Jersey. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ450>455-011930- Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 nm- Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 nm- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures. ANZ430-431-011930- Delaware Bay waters north of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- Delaware Bay waters south of East Point NJ to Slaughter Beach DE- 224 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 515 IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Delaware Bay Waters. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Gale Warning. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to standard operating procedures.
In the hours before
Local storm report, Nov 30, 1:36 PM EST, 1 hour 12 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
136 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1258 PM FLOOD 1 NNW WHITE HOUSE STATI 40.63N 74.78W
11/30/2020 HUNTERDON NJ LAW ENFORCEMENT
US HWY 22 WEST, NEAR VAN HORNE ROAD IS
CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING IN READINGTON TWP.
&&Local storm report, Nov 30, 1:41 PM EST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
141 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0115 PM FLOOD 3 WSW CLOVERHILL 40.47N 74.83W
11/30/2020 HUNTERDON NJ OTHER FEDERAL
THE NESHANIC RIVER AT REAVILLE EXCEEDED ITS
FLOOD STAGE OF 6.5 FEET AT 1:15 PM.
&&Local storm report, Nov 30, 2:19 PM EST, 29 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
219 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0130 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 WNW BETHLEHEM TWP 40.67N 75.03W
11/30/2020 HUNTERDON NJ EMERGENCY MNGR
DAMAGE TO TREES AND WIRES ALONG ASBURY WEST
PORTAL ROAD IN BETHLEHEM TOWNSHIP. TIME
ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
&&
NCLocal storm report, Nov 30, 2:29 PM EST, 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
229 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0200 PM FLOOD EAST GREENVILLE 40.41N 75.50W
11/30/2020 MONTGOMERY PA OTHER FEDERAL
PERKIOMEN CREEK AT EAST GREENVILLE, PA
EXCEEDED ITS FLOOD STATE OF 4 FEET AT 2 PM.
&&Local storm report, Nov 30, 2:30 PM EST, 18 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
230 PM EST MON NOV 30 2020
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM FLOOD NEWTOWN SQUARE 39.99N 75.40W
11/30/2020 DELAWARE PA OTHER FEDERAL
CRUM CREEK AT NEWTOWN SQUARE EXCEEDED ITS
FLOOD STAGE OF 6 FEET AT 12 PM.
&&Special weather statement, Nov 30, 2:34 PM EST, 14 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
234 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
NJZ001-007>010-302030-
Morris-Hunterdon-Sussex-Somerset-Warren-
234 PM EST Mon Nov 30 2020
...A SHOWER WILL AFFECT MORRIS...NORTHEASTERN HUNTERDON...CENTRAL
SUSSEX...EAST CENTRAL WARREN AND NORTHWESTERN SOMERSET COUNTIES...
At 233 PM EST, a shower was located over Chester, or 11 miles west of
Morristown, moving northeast at 35 mph.
Wind gusts up to 50 mph are possible with this shower.
Locations impacted include...
Newton, Dover, Hopatcong, Kinnelon, Hackettstown, Butler, Wharton,
Rockaway, Mount Arlington, Franklin, Mendham, Mountain Lakes,
Stanhope, Hamburg, Netcong, Peapack And Gladstone, Ogdensburg,
Sussex, Chester and Victory Gardens.
This includes the following highways...
Interstate 78 in New Jersey between mile markers 23 and 26.
Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 19 and 40.
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
LAT...LON 4120 7436 4109 7450 4107 7449 4104 7450
4105 7445 4102 7443 4103 7442 4100 7433
4061 7477 4080 7491 4131 7459
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 228DEG 30KT 4081 7471
JEOThe office that day
Everything else NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 12:52 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | PHI | Atlantic, Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and 5 more | 92 min |
| Nov 30, 1:28 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | PHI | Hunterdon, Warren | 2 hr |
| Nov 30, 2:01 PM EST | Coastal Flood Statement | PHI | Ocean | 3 hr |
| Nov 30, 2:01 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset | 9 hr |
| Nov 30, 2:18 PM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | PHI | Burlington, Camden, Gloucester | 2 hr |
| Nov 30, 2:34 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | PHI | Morris, Sussex | 56 min |
| Nov 30, 3:01 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Gloucester, Salem | 44 min |
| Nov 30, 3:26 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Warren | 4 hr |
| Nov 30, 3:37 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | PHI | 38 min | |
| Nov 30, 3:43 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Warren | 47 min |
| Nov 30, 3:47 PM EST | Tornado Warning | PHI | Cumberland, Salem | 28 min |
| Nov 30, 3:53 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Morris, Somerset, Sussex, Warren | 16 hr |
| Nov 30, 3:53 PM EST | Tornado Warning | PHI | Hunterdon | 13 min |
| Nov 30, 3:58 PM EST | Small Craft Advisory | PHI | 56 hr | |
| Nov 30, 4:17 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | PHI | Camden, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex | 10 hr |
| Nov 30, 4:49 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Camden, Cumberland, Gloucester, Salem | 41 min |
| Nov 30, 5:05 PM EST | Special Marine Warning | PHI | 40 min | |
| Nov 30, 5:29 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Mercer, Middlesex, Somerset | 46 min |
| Nov 30, 5:36 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | Hunterdon, Somerset | 7 hr |
| Nov 30, 12:15 PM EST | Areal Flood Advisory | PHI | Chester, Delaware | 3 hr |
| Nov 30, 12:41 PM EST | Special Weather Statement | PHI | Chester, Montgomery | 49 min |
| Nov 30, 2:17 PM EST | Areal Flood Warning | PHI | Berks, Bucks, Lehigh, Montgomery | 9 hr |
| Nov 30, 2:41 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Chester, Delaware | 49 min |
| Nov 30, 3:51 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | Chester | 14 hr |
| Nov 30, 5:30 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | Chester, Delaware | 16 hr |
| Nov 30, 5:33 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | Montgomery | 10 hr |
| Nov 30, 5:35 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | Delaware | 4 hr |
| Nov 30, 11:35 AM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | New Castle | 11 hr |
| Nov 30, 3:04 PM EST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | PHI | Kent, New Castle | 56 min |
| Nov 30, 3:21 PM EST | Tornado Warning | PHI | Kent | 24 min |
| Nov 30, 5:24 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | New Castle | 5 hr |
| Nov 30, 5:39 PM EST | River Flood Warning | PHI | New Castle | 4 hr |
| Nov 30, 3:11 PM EST | Tornado Warning | PHI | Caroline, Queen Anne's | 17 min |
Nearby
Areal Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2020Areal Flood Warnings in New Jersey, 2020Areal Flood Warnings in Delaware, 2020Every areal flood warning in 2020
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.