River Flood Warning 40, NWS Paducah, KY

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
National Weather Service Paducah KY
400 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

Still have some waning convection in our eastern counties well ahead
of a sfc cold front that extends from central Indiana to the MO
Bootheal. Heavy rainfall is over, but will need to monitor residual
runoff/hydro trends in the near term with existing flash flood
warnings.

The sfc cold front will continue moving east making it all the way
through the area by mid morning. Low clouds/stratus will linger
behind the front for a short period, but HRRR progged soundings
shows drier air working its way into the area with mild
weather/sunshine for the afternoon.

A ridge of sfc high pressure will continue to move into AR/western
TN tonight with light west-southwest winds.

For Wednesday: NW flow aloft will push a sfc/trough dry front
through Wednesday morning veering winds to the northwest. Winds will
be a a little stronger over our IL/IN counties Wed afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

Thursday: The southern stream of a split upper flow pattern will
support a sfc low moving across the southern U.S. with a supporting
shortwave reaching eastern AR/western TN by Thursday morning. Better
chances for rain will be off to the south, but will continue to
carry low rain chances late Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

The northern jet will support a sfc low moving into the Great Lakes
with a trailing sfc cold front Thursday afternoon. Can't rule out a
stray shower, but will keep the forecast dry with this frontal
passage.

Friday-Monday: Dry sfc high pressure is expected to bring nice
weather for Friday and into the weekend. A warming trend is expected
over the weekend as south winds kick in as the sfc high shifts off
to the east. There is decent agreement with the ECMWF/GFS global
models brining in a sfc front and rain chances to the area by
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 400 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

MVFR/some IFR ceilings will give way to drier air moving in from the
west with improving flight conditions after 12z-14z. Moderately
gusty wnw winds will develop with daytime/afternoon mixing then
diminish late in the period with sfc high pressure moving into
AR/western TN.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

SHORT TERM..DSA/SGF
LONG TERM...DSA/SGF
AVIATION...DSA/SGF

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Paducah KY
Issued by National Weather Service Springfield MO
452 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-
100-107>112-114-041100-
Jefferson-Wayne IL-Edwards-Wabash-Perry IL-Franklin-Hamilton-
White-Jackson-Williamson-Saline-Gallatin-Union-Johnson-Pope-
Hardin-Alexander-Pulaski-Massac-Gibson-Pike-Posey-Vanderburgh-
Warrick-Spencer-Fulton-Hickman-Carlisle-Ballard-McCracken-Graves-
Livingston-Marshall-Calloway-Crittenden-Lyon-Trigg-Caldwell-
Union KY-Webster-Hopkins-Christian-Henderson-Daviess-McLean-
Muhlenberg-Todd-Perry MO-Bollinger-Cape Girardeau-Wayne MO-Carter-
Ripley-Butler-Stoddard-Scott-Mississippi-New Madrid-
452 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana, western Kentucky, and southeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.