Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
544 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Bowing line of thunderstorms currently pushing across the MO
bootheel. This activity will be reaching the northwestern extremes
of middle TN between 3 pm and 4 pm. The atmosphere across the mid
state is quite unstable with dewpoints now well into the 60s and sfc
capes around 2000 j/kg in our northwest. There is a warm layer
around 700 mb but caps are diminishing with time, especially north
of I-40. Additional partial development will be possible ahead of
the main line of advancing storms. It will however take a little
longer for that activity to commence. The threat of severe weather
is due primarily to the advancing line of storms and a severe tstm
watch is in effect until 6 PM for our northwest. This line may need
to be extended eastward later. Large hail and damaging winds are the
threats for this afternoon. Otw, average qpf amounts tonight will
average around one half inch. However, some cell training will
produce some locally heavier amounts of an inch or so.

Moving on, boundary will push south overnight. The better
instability zone will switch to south of us on Monday. And with
little forcing, I am not seeing much during the day.

Monday night, a warm front will be lifting northward. Instabilities
will begin to increase and we could see a few strong storms west of
I-65 at that time. During the day Tuesday, the sfc low will move
eastward across KY with instability increasing to the east of I-65
as the day progresses. It looks as though strong storms will again
be possible, mainly east of I-65 on Tuesday afternoon. This will be
in advance of the main cold frontal passage.

Near term temps, looking rather warm, particularly our overnight
lows which will be in the lower 60s. Cooler Tuesday night behind the
aforementioned fropa.

In the ext fcst, showers are possible in our east on Wednesday.
Models are rather peculiar at that time as they try to strum up sfc
instability with a northerly sfc fetch. Not buying it so will
exclude thunder. Following this, models are leaning toward a Gulf
system by late week with rain showers returning.

For the ext temps, its looking below normal with highs, for Thursday
on, mostly in the 60s. And just to serve notice, the 6-10 day
outlook reflects well below normal temperatures. Could be some frost
advisory perhaps in our future? We shall see.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Line of strong and severe storms will be moving through the CSV
taf area between 23Z and 00Z. Wind gusts to 45 Kts will be
possible. Additional isol to scattered tstm activity may develop
tonight as the frontal boundary slides southward through the area.
Storms will not be as strong as the earlier line. Otherwise...look
for persistent shower activity through 02Z- 04Z.

Instability axis will shift to the south of middle TN by 12Z with
a break from the precip expected for the last half of the taf
period. Additional storms possible Monday evening aft 00Z as a
warm front lifts northward.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
512 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and
evening today. Main threat if any strong storms develop will be
damaging winds and hail, along with isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again during the
afternoon and evening on Monday across the mid state, with main
threats being hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
504 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEBURG            35.25N  87.34W
05/03/2020                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE....TREES DOWN AND S BARN
            DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000346

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
507 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LAWRENCEBURG            35.25N  87.34W
05/03/2020                   LAWRENCE           TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE....TREES DOWN AND A BARN
            DAMAGED.

&&

CORRECTED FATALITIES...INJURIES...REMARKS

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000346

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
515 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0504 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N LEBANON             36.22N  86.32W
05/03/2020  M70 MPH          WILSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000347

21

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
545 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0535 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 WNW MCMINNVILLE       35.70N  85.84W
05/03/2020  M60 MPH          WARREN             TN   AWOS

            MCMINNVILLE AWOS MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 52 KNOTS / 60
            MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000348

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
556 PM CDT SUN MAY 03 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WOODBURY                35.82N  86.07W
05/03/2020                   CANNON             TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            *** 2 INJ *** NUMEROUS TREES DOWN WITH POWER OUTAGES
            ACROSS CANNON COUNTY. TREE FELL ONTO AN ATV INJURING 2
            PEOPLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER OHX2000349

SHAMBURGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
621 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

TNZ056-058-093-094-032345-
Lawrence TN-Wayne TN-Lewis TN-Perry TN-
621 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LEWIS...NORTHERN
WAYNE...NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE AND SOUTHERN PERRY COUNTIES UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Linden, moving southeast at 50 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Linden, Flatwoods and Mousetail Landing State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect
until 800 PM CDT for Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3547 8802 3548 8799 3551 8798 3553 8798
      3555 8800 3561 8803 3568 8801 3548 8745
      3519 8766 3546 8803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 294DEG 44KT 3555 8796

Whitehead