Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
217 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Bowing line of thunderstorms currently pushing across the MO
bootheel. This activity will be reaching the northwestern extremes
of middle TN between 3 pm and 4 pm. The atmosphere across the mid
state is quite unstable with dewpoints now well into the 60s and sfc
capes around 2000 j/kg in our northwest. There is a warm layer
around 700 mb but caps are diminishing with time, especially north
of I-40. Additional partial development will be possible ahead of
the main line of advancing storms. It will however take a little
longer for that activity to commence. The threat of severe weather
is due primarily to the advancing line of storms and a severe tstm
watch is in effect until 6 PM for our northwest. This line may need
to be extended eastward later. Large hail and damaging winds are the
threats for this afternoon. Otw, average qpf amounts tonight will
average around one half inch. However, some cell training will
produce some locally heavier amounts of an inch or so.

Moving on, boundary will push south overnight. The better
instability zone will switch to south of us on Monday. And with
little forcing, I am not seeing much during the day.

Monday night, a warm front will be lifting northward. Instabilities
will begin to increase and we could see a few strong storms west of
I-65 at that time. During the day Tuesday, the sfc low will move
eastward across KY with instability increasing to the east of I-65
as the day progresses. It looks as though strong storms will again
be possible, mainly east of I-65 on Tuesday afternoon. This will be
in advance of the main cold frontal passage.

Near term temps, looking rather warm, particularly our overnight
lows which will be in the lower 60s. Cooler Tuesday night behind the
aforementioned fropa.

In the ext fcst, showers are possible in our east on Wednesday.
Models are rather peculiar at that time as they try to strum up sfc
instability with a northerly sfc fetch. Not buying it so will
exclude thunder. Following this, models are leaning toward a Gulf
system by late week with rain showers returning.

For the ext temps, its looking below normal with highs, for Thursday
on, mostly in the 60s. And just to serve notice, the 6-10 day
outlook reflects well below normal temperatures. Could be some frost
advisory perhaps in our future? We shall see.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR conditions expected for most of this TAF cycle, but a cluster
of +TSRA headed towards Middle TN will bring IFR to LIFR
conditions with very gusty west winds this afternoon/early
evening. While each terminal is expected to get a couple hour
break where VFR could return this evening, additional TS are
expected throughout the evening, with degraded conditions for the
rest of the night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      60  77  62  78  49 /  70  20  70  40  30
Clarksville    55  76  59  75  48 /  70  30 100  30  10
Crossville     57  72  58  76  48 /  70  20  90  90  30
Columbia       62  79  64  79  49 /  60  30  30  30  20
Lawrenceburg   63  78  64  81  50 /  50  30  30  40  30
Waverly        57  77  61  76  48 /  70  30  80  30  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-041015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
512 AM CDT Sun May 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon and
evening today. Main threat if any strong storms develop will be
damaging winds and hail, along with isolated flash flooding possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible again during the
afternoon and evening on Monday across the mid state, with main
threats being hail and damaging winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
256 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

TNZ005-032030-
Stewart TN-
256 PM CDT Sun May 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

At 255 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paris Landing State Park, moving east at 45 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock, Land Between The Lakes and Indian Mound.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM CDT for
Middle Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3666 8785 3663 8785 3664 8764 3649 8762
      3641 8803 3645 8806 3647 8805 3649 8806
      3652 8804 3656 8803 3668 8807 3668 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1955Z 259DEG 41KT 3648 8819

Whitehead