Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Nashville, TN

058 
WWUS54 KOHX 290014
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
714 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNC125-161-290045-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-200329T0045Z/
Montgomery TN-Stewart TN-
714 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND CENTRAL STEWART COUNTIES...

At 713 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Dover, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock and Indian Mound. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8785 3664 8743 3636 8785 3648 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 225DEG 39KT 3647 8786 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shamburger

449 
WWUS54 KOHX 290019
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
719 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNC125-161-290045-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-200329T0045Z/
Montgomery TN-Stewart TN-
719 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND CENTRAL STEWART COUNTIES...

At 718 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Dover, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock and Indian Mound. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8785 3664 8743 3639 8781 3651 8795
TIME...MOT...LOC 0018Z 225DEG 45KT 3652 8781 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shamburger

581 
WWUS54 KOHX 290025
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
725 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNC125-161-290045-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-200329T0045Z/
Montgomery TN-Stewart TN-
725 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN STEWART COUNTIES...

At 725 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Big Rock, or 9
miles northeast of Dover, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock and Indian Mound. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8743 3642 8777 3652 8788 3664 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0025Z 228DEG 41KT 3657 8772 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shamburger

272 
WWUS54 KOHX 290033
SVSOHX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
733 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNC125-161-290045-
/O.CON.KOHX.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-200329T0045Z/
Montgomery TN-Stewart TN-
733 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY AND NORTHEASTERN STEWART COUNTIES...

At 733 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Big Rock, or 9 miles west of Fort Campbell North, moving northeast at
45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Big Rock and Indian Mound. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 8743 3647 8769 3664 8780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0033Z 228DEG 41KT 3663 8762 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Shamburger

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
633 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

I'm going to start with the most important part of this AFD: we are
expecting severe weather tonight in the form of damaging straight
line winds, hail and tornadoes. Because of this, let me re-emphasize
the following:

1. This is going to be a nighttime event. Please make sure you have
multiple ways to get warnings that may be issued for you. This does
NOT mean having downloaded multiple apps on your phone. Your phone,
turned on and up, is one way. A second would be a properly
programmed NOAA weather radio -- something that will wake you up in
the event you go under a warning while you are asleep.

2. Have a safety plan for your family in place now. Practice it. If
you need help putting one of these together, visit ready.gov. They
have great information on what you need to do PRIOR to going under a
warning. This includes having plan to get to shelter in a timely
manner. If you live in a mobile home, this could include being in
that shelter during the watch, not just if you go under a warning.

3. Please treat Severe Thunderstorm Warnings with the same priority
you would a Tornado Warning. Winds blowing in a straight line versus
those spinning around in a circle at 70 mph or more can do the same
kind of damage. Just take shelter.

I'll climb down off my soapbox now.

Yes, severe storms will be possible tonight. Here are the highlights
from my update earlier, as things have not changed in the last
couple of hours:

The strong cap, being seen in current LAPS soundings, looks like it
will be in place throughout the afternoon and early evening hours.
This is what we're going to have to watch closely as we get into the
6 pm timeframe. If that cap starts to break, then we could see some
discrete development. However, the current thinking is that the cap
will hold tight until we can get the 850-700mb jet structure closer
to the mid-state, which will probably be the 7-9 pm time frame. This
should erode the cap and allow convection to begin developing across
West TN/North MS, with storms then moving into Middle TN shortly
after that. Helicities do pick up right around that time (which will
help organization). If we can elude the discrete development in the
early evening hours and only have to deal with the activity closest
to the front, then we should be dealing with a QLCS/broken line type
event. Of note, no matter what soundings we look at, even though I
said they pick up, helicities are not off the charts. Some of our
bigger tornado outbreaks have 0-3km helicities of 400-600 m2/m2,
where this evening is in the neighborhood of about 300, based on
latest guidance. This could help us in the tornado department and is
really why we're focusing on this event being more of a straight-
line wind event, but tornadoes are NOT out of the question, by any
means. In addition, because of this more-likely scenario I've drawn
out here, the large hail threat should be less as well, due to storm
mode. Quarters are more likely versus anything much bigger.

For more on timing, including graphics, visit our website
weather.gov/ohx.

On that note, storms should be pulling off the Cumberland Plateau
prior to sunrise and it looks like we'll return to the dry
conditions we've been experiencing the last few days. Our next
system is progged for Tuesday and models continue to keep the
surface low moving west to east over northern Alabama, which keeps
us out of the warm sector and any severe threat south of Middle TN.

Following Tuesday's rain, we should have a couple more days of dry
conditions then another system on Friday. Models aren't in great
agreement regarding this system's evolution, so more to come on
that. For now, please remain weather aware as the sun sets.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cold front expected to push through overnight with the boundary
exiting the Plateau area between 09z and 12z. Thunderstorm
development is expected along and in advance of this feature.
Gusty winds will be strongest near CKV with weaker magnitudes the
further east you go. Otw, all precip will exit the area by 12Z
with partial clearing beginning in the afternoon.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION......Shamburger
AVIATION........21

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
512 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-291015-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-
Jackson-Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-
Maury-Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-
Coffee-Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
512 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Middle
Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several rivers will remain above action stage through today.

Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop after 4 PM today,
though the greatest chance for severe weather will be from 8 PM
tonight through early Sunday morning. All modes of severe weather
are possible, including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a few
tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A few strong to severe storms may linger into the early morning
hours on Sunday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and a tornado
will remain possible.

Several rivers will remain above action stage into early next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed tonight into early Sunday
morning.

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
656 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

TNZ005-023-290045-
Stewart TN-Houston TN-
656 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR STEWART AND NORTHWESTERN HOUSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Paris Landing State Park, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dover, Big Rock, Houston County Airport, Land Between The Lakes and
Indian Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If on or near the Tennessee River, get out of the water and move
indoors or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to
10 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter
now! Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for Middle
Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3648 8805 3667 8788 3666 8785 3663 8785
      3664 8764 3653 8762 3627 8795 3631 8796
      3635 8798 3644 8806
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 221DEG 34KT 3633 8805

Shamburger