Areal Flood Warning 4, NWS Twin Cities, MN

290 
WGUS83 KMPX 292059 RRA
FLSMPX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNC079-131-292109-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.W.0004.000000T0000Z-200629T2230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Le Sueur MN-Rice MN-
359 PM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN LE SUEUR AND 
NORTHWESTERN RICE COUNTIES...

Rainfall has ended for the area and water is beginning to recede. 
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to 
heed remaining road closures.

LAT...LON 4424 9378 4439 9379 4454 9330 4454 9328
      4447 9328 4447 9322 4440 9317 4423 9377

$$

TDH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
710 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...
Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Widespread thunderstorms continue across the area this morning as
an MCV parked over the area, along with impressive nocturnal
instability, has led to a night of heavy rain and flooding.
Thunderstorms will begin to taper off through the morning as the
low-level jet wanes and the MCV becomes more washed out, but
stratiform rain could continue into the early afternoon across
western Wisconsin. High temperatures this afternoon will depend
strongly on how early precipitation dissipates this morning, and
the extend of clearing realized from the decaying thunderstorm
complexes. If we see clearing by late morning temperatures should
be able to reach the low 90s across western Minnesota, so issued
a Heat Advisory for this afternoon as dewpoints in the 70s would
allow for heat indices to exceed 100 degrees. The extent of
clearing remains more uncertain further east into eastern
Minnesota and western Wisconsin, but given the oppressive
humidity, there seems to be a decent shot at heat indices
exceeding 95 degrees so also issued a Heat Advisory for the Twin
Cities metro.

We should see a brief lull in precipitation during the afternoon,
but additional thunderstorm development looks possible later this
afternoon and evening as the remnants of the MCV interacts with a
slowly moving boundary draped across central Minnesota and the
low-level jet provides plenty of forcing for thunderstorms to
continue overnight. The best chance for thunderstorms tonight
looks to be across central Minnesota as the MCV slowly migrates to
the north. Similar to last night, CAMs are all over the place
with the coverage of thunderstorms and location of the heaviest
rainfall as they struggle to resolve all of the relevant mesoscale
features and boundaries. We could be looking at another
conditional flash flooding threat tonight with the HRRR and a few
other CAMS highlighting the potential for a swath of 3-4+ inches.
Luckily, the area of concern for the heaviest rainfall looks to
be displaced north of the areas hardest hit by heavy rain and
flooding overnight.

Thunderstorms look less likely during the day on Tuesday, but will
hold on to chance PoPs across eastern Minnesota and western
Wisconsin given the instability across the area and uncertainty
inherent with any remnant boundaries. High temperatures will be
similar to today with the amount of cloud cover from residual
convection determining whether temperatures can approach or
exceed 90. If so, heat Advisories may be needed again across
western Minnesota and the Twin Cities metro.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Thunderstorms look likely again Wednesday into Thursday as a
surface cold front moves through the area, and better forcing
aloft approaches as a shortwave passes off to our west. Deep
shear increases to around 30 kts so a general severe threat looks
possible as well, especially across western Minnesota.
Thunderstorms will likely evolve into a progressive line along
the front, which should help to mitigate any heavy rain and
flooding concerns. Thunderstorms could reignite along the front
Thursday afternoon across western WI, depending on how far east it
progresses across the area. The latter half of the week looks
drier as even warmer temperatures aloft move overhead, and flow
through the column weakens to less than 20 kts.

Temperatures look to get even warmer as we approach the 4th of
July weekend as ridging deepens overhead. Highs in the low to mid
90s look possible, but slightly drier air may be enough to
mitigate the need for any heat headlines.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

Periods of thunderstorms this morning with MVFR/IFR conditions
mainly due to reduced visibility. Then expect VFR conditions to
develop later this afternoon and overnight, but more thunderstorms
are possible.

KMSP...
Periods of thunderstorms this morning with MVFR/IFR conditions
mainly due to reduced visibility. The most likely time period is
13-16Z this morning. Then expect VFR conditions to develop later
this afternoon and overnight, but more thunderstorms are possible
this evening. As of now, the best chance is north of KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Tue...Mainly VFR. Slight Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 15G25 kts.
Wed...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
Thu...Mainly VFR. Chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ014>016-
     023>025-027.

MN...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ049-
     051>053-057>063-065>070-075-076.

     Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for MNZ047-054>056-060>064-068>070.

&&

SHORT TERM...ETA
LONG TERM...ETA
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
853 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

MNZ049-051>053-057>063-065>070-073>078-082>084-WIZ014>016-023>025-
027-301400-
Stearns-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-
Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-
Dakota-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-
Blue Earth-Waseca-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Chippewa-
853 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...southwest Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin
and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A Flash Flood watch remains in effect until noon. Thunderstorms
capable of very heavy rain will continue through late morning
before dissipating. Additional thunderstorm development is
expected later this evening and overnight, primarily across
central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin. Heavy rain and
flooding will also be possible with the thunderstorms tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening for the
Twin Cities metropolitan area. Heat indices in excess of 95
degrees are expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will also be possible Tuesday through
Thursday, with a Wednesday carrying a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. Heat
indices of 95 to 100 degrees are possible by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and rainfall observers are urged to report rainfall
amounts to the National Weather Service.

MNZ041>045-047-048-050-054>056-064-085-091>093-WIZ026-028-301400-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Benton-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
853 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
west central Minnesota and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain will continue through late
morning before dissipating. Additional thunderstorm development
is expected later this evening and overnight, primarily across
central Minnesota. Heavy rain and flooding will be possible with
the thunderstorms tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect this afternoon and evening for west
central Minnesota. Heat indices in excess of 100 degrees are
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Thunderstorm chances will also be possible Tuesday through
Thursday, with a Wednesday carrying a Marginal Risk of severe
thunderstorms.

Hot and humid conditions will continue through the week. Heat
indices of 95 to 100 degrees are possible by the weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters and rainfall observers are urged to report rainfall
amounts to the National Weather Service.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE ST. CROIX BEACH    44.92N 92.77W
06/29/2020  M4.52 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-WG-81 LAKELAND 1.8 S.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1136 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1120 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 WNW APPLE VALLEY      44.74N 93.23W
06/29/2020  M4.47 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION APVLY APPLE VALLEY 2WSW.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1137 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NE HUDSON             45.03N 92.69W
06/29/2020  M4.26 INCH       ST. CROIX          WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-SC-39 BAYPORT 4E.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1138 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     HEAVY RAIN       LAKE ST. CROIX BEACH    44.93N 92.77W
06/29/2020  M4.16 INCH       WASHINGTON         MN   MESONET

            MESONET STATION CW5689 LAKELAND.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1139 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       2 SE CHETEK             45.29N 91.62W
06/29/2020  M4.11 INCH       BARRON             WI   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION WI-BR-2 CHETEK 2SE.

&&

MKM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1140 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 AM     HEAVY RAIN       1 W SOUTH ST. PAUL      44.89N 93.06W
06/29/2020  M4.06 INCH       DAKOTA             MN   COCORAHS

            COCORAHS STATION MN-DK-129 SOUTH SAINT PAUL
            1.1 W.

&&

MKM