Tornado Warning 14, NWS Memphis, TN

257 
WWUS54 KMEG 282123
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
423 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARC031-111-282145-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/
Craighead AR-Poinsett AR-
423 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES...
        
At 423 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Algoa, or 9 miles
southeast of Newport, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Weiner, Cash, Waldenburg, Pitts, Risher, Uno, Otwell and Bayou De
View State Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

To repeat, a tornado is on the ground. TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a
storm shelter or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy
building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in
a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect
yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 9104 3582 9091 3567 9073 3550 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2123Z 225DEG 33KT 3556 9109 

TORNADO...OBSERVED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SGW

365 
WWUS54 KMEG 282131
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
431 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARC031-111-282145-
/O.CON.KMEG.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/
Craighead AR-Poinsett AR-
431 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN POINSETT COUNTIES...
    
At 431 PM CDT, doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm
producing a tornado was located near Grubbs, or 12 miles east of
Newport, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Weiner, Cash, Waldenburg, Pitts, Risher, Uno, Otwell and Bayou De
View State Wildlife Management Area.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a storm shelter or an interior room on the
lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are
outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest
substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3569 9104 3582 9091 3567 9073 3550 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 225DEG 33KT 3562 9102 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...<.75IN

$$

SGW

232 
WWUS54 KMEG 282142
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
442 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARC031-111-282152-
/O.EXP.KMEG.TO.W.0014.000000T0000Z-200328T2145Z/
Craighead AR-Poinsett AR-
442 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN CRAIGHEAD AND NORTHWESTERN
POINSETT COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 445 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer appears capable of producing a tornado.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for eastern
Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3569 9104 3582 9091 3567 9073 3550 9104
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 225DEG 33KT 3569 9093 

$$

SGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
337 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Latest surface analysis places a 993mb low pressure system over
southwestern Iowa, with a warm front extending eastward through
north central Illinois, and a cold front extending southward
through western Missouri and into Little Rock, Arkansas. Storms
have begun to fire just ahead ahead of the cold front in Central
and eastern Arkansas. So far, storms have remained mainly sub-
severe, as shear is likely overwhelming the thermodynamic
environment. However, the storms are moving into our area, which
is moderately unstable with 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE available on
tap.

A tornado watch has been issued for the majority of Arkansas,
including all of eastern Arkansas until 7PM. The main risk with
these storms appears to be damaging winds and large hail attm,
with a low end tornado threat, as low level helicity is currently
below 100 m2/s2. However, the risk for QLCS-type tornadoes will
likely increase this evening, as the low level jet picks up and
storms organize into quasi linear segments. Ample instability in
the 1500-2500 MLCAPE range combined with 0-6 km shear of 80kts,
and a coincident 100 kt 500mb jet streak, should be enough for a
strong line of storms to maintain through late this evening. The
primary risk still appears to be damaging winds with a secondary
threat of large hail and short-lived isolated tornadoes. The
threat will end after midnight as the front exits northeast
Mississippi. A few trailing post-frontal showers are possible
overnight as the main trough lifts out of the area.

Pacific high pressure will build into the Mid-South for Sunday,
leading to dry and pleasant conditions. Expect high temperatures
mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. High pressure will quickly
slide by Monday as another system develops to our southwest. A
quick moving shortwave will eject across the Desert Southwest on
Monday and make its way into the Texas Panhandle late Monday
night. A surface low is expected to develop and track eastward
through northern Louisiana and Central Mississippi during the day
on Tuesday. This will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity
across our area on Monday night and Tuesday. Due to the track of
the low, the severe threat will stay to our south and mainly along
the Gulf Coast. The system will likely be a heavy rainfall
producer for us and that's about it. The surface low is expected
to push southeast of the area by late Tuesday night, with Canadian
high pressure building into the Mid-South from the northwest.
This will lead to a few consecutive days of dry and near normal
temperatures. The next weather maker looks to arrive this weekend
as a cold front moves across the Mississippi Valley.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR CIGs are expected to prevail for most of the day today along
with strengthening southerly winds and gusts up to 25 kts. A line
of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move quickly across
the Mid-South late evening. Showers should move into JBR by 22Z
then progress eastward through the night. Temporary IFR conditions
due to heave rain is likely in association with thunderstorms
along with gusty winds with thunderstorms. Winds will diminish
overnight to less than 10kt, shifting southwest to west. Skies
will likely clear by early morning and persist through Sunday.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-292130-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
220 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A tornado watch is in effect until 7PM CDT for all of eastern
Arkansas. Additional convective watches are possible downstream
later tonight.

Severe thunderstorms containing damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are possible beginning early this
evening through approximately midnight for the entire Mid-South.
The greatest threat for severe thunderstorms will exist mainly
along and north of the I-40 corridor.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible this afternoon and evening.

AC3