Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1243 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.UPDATE...

See the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 921 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

UPDATE...Morning update.

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are warming very quickly across the Midsouth, already
approaching the middle 80s across much of the area with dew points
in the low to middle 70s. As a result, SBCAPE is over 1500 across
most of the area and over 2500 over the Delta near and South of
Memphis. The SPC upgraded most of the Midsouth to a Slight risk
for severe thunderstorms with areas near the Tennessee River and
along the Alabama state line in a Marginal Risk. Damaging wind is
the main threat with a secondary threat of hail. The threat of
severe weather should diminish after sunset.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

Currently...All is quiet for the moment across the Mid-South.
Upper ridging continues to the west with mostly clear skies and
light winds across the region. Temps are mostly in the lower 70s.

Today...Monitoring a convective complex over NE KS/NW MO that
looks to be the main weather producer later today. Expect the
outflow boundary from that overnight convection to move south into
the Mid-South later today. The upper ridge will start to nose
into the middle MS Valley this morning and latest CAMs have the
boundary tracking basically due south over the western half of the
forecast area. This boundary will intercept an very unstable
airmass as SBCAPEs are forecast to climb to 3000-4000+ J/KG by
late morning. CAMs have a range of solutions but the general sense
is that a MCS will develop and track south across mainly western
sections of the forecast area...MO Bootheel...east AR...SW TN and
NW MS this afternoon into early this evening. Given the degree of
instability expect a few severe storms with damaging winds as the
main threat and large hail a secondary threat. There is a slight
risk for severe weather generally along and west of the MS River.
Trended toward the slightly cooler guidance today given the
expected MCS. Synoptic guidance is generally missing this
convection which explains the warmer high temps.

Tonight...Expect some thunderstorms around early in the evening
as with potential MCS but activity should move south of the area
by 03z followed by a quiet overnight period and mild temps.

Saturday and Sunday...Upper ridge will strengthen over the region
with decreasing rain chances and increasing temps. Still could be
a few popup thunderstorms Saturday afternoon before the ridge
suppresses most all convection by Sunday. Slightly drier air will
work in from the east and northeast on Sunday dropping the
dewpoints to a slightly more comfortable level. Temps however will
be climbing into the lower 90s. Expect afternoon heat index values
to perhaps touch 100F on Saturday. The slightly drier air on
Sunday will knock a few degrees off the heat index.

Monday through Wednesday...Cristobal is expected to make landfall
along the north Gulf coast Sunday night with the remnants tracking
north through Arkansas Monday afternoon through Tuesday. There
will be the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds across
western sections of the forecast area. There could be an isolated
tornado threat as well which is typical on the eastern side of
tropical systems. It is still early and impacts will obviously
depend on the exact track of the system. After the remnants of
Cristobal race north a cold front will sweep through on Wednesday
with a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Dry and
seasonable weather should return by Thursday.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF cycle

VFR conds will prevail outside of TSRA. All stations will see
scattered TSRA this afternoon, with MEM seeing another round
around sundown. -SHRA may linger around MEM through 06/08Z. Light
MVFR fog is possible at all sites before sunrise, as winds go
nearly calm.

Winds will go northwest briefly behind the line of TSRA this
afternoon, shifting easterly and going calm overnight. Expect
easterly winds tomorrow afternoon 5-7 kts.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
730 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061430-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
730 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this
evening mainly across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel,
southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. Damaging winds will
be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat index values may reach 100 degrees Saturday afternoon.

The remnants of Cristobal are expected to track through Arkansas
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across parts of the Mid-South. Additional impacts from
the system could include isolated tornadoes. Since potential
impacts depend on the track of this system, monitor the latest
forecast information for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early this
evening.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
117 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ036-MSZ001-TNZ049-088-089-051845-
Crittenden AR-DeSoto MS-Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Shelby TN-
117 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 145 PM CDT
FOR...

Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...
Northern DeSoto County in northwestern Mississippi...
Southern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Shelby County in western Tennessee...

At 117 PM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing winds in excess of 40
mph was located along a line extending from near Dancyville to near
Bartlett to near Edmondson. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.

People in Crittenden...northern DeSoto...southern Tipton...Fayette
and Shelby Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3544 9040 3545 9007 3539 9005 3545 9003
      3544 8954 3519 8919 3499 8964 3499 8972
      3497 8973 3487 9041
TIME...MOT...LOC 1817Z 327DEG 30KT 3538 8936 3518 8986 3510 9037

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
136 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ035-036-051900-
Cross AR-Crittenden AR-
136 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Cross County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Crittenden County in eastern Arkansas...

At 136 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing nickel size hail was
located 7 miles north of Parkin, moving southeast at 35 mph.

People in northeastern Cross and northwestern Crittenden Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3544 9060 3544 9042 3536 9022 3536 9042
      3515 9042 3515 9043 3538 9068
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 307DEG 31KT 3538 9053

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
146 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0137 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE WHITEHAVEN        35.04N  89.98W
06/05/2020  M58 MPH          SHELBY             TN   ASOS

&&

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
147 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0143 PM     HAIL             1 WSW PIPERTON          35.02N  89.64W
06/05/2020  E0.88 INCH       SHELBY             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

MJ

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>