Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
642 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.DISCUSSION... /issued 311 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020/

Only a few locations have been able to warm into the middle 80s
today due to abundant cloud cover and numerous showers and
thunderstorms. Coverage of storms is currently minimal but short
term guidance has an additional round of storms along and East of
the Mississippi River prior to sunset then weakening by around 10
pm. Will maintain a low confidence of strong storms based on said
guidance.

Overnight a ridge will begin to build back across the Midsouth
from the West. This feature will limit coverage of precipitation
tomorrow, but also result in warmer temperatures. As a result,
expect more diurnally driven thunderstorms during peak heating
tomorrow, diminishing quickly after sunset. Any of these type of
storms is capable of producing localized heavy rain, brief
damaging winds and small hail, however widespread organized
severe weather is not expected.

The ridge will continue to build Saturday boosting temperatures
back into the 90s across the entire Midsouth. A shortwave will
track across East Missouri into West Tennessee. Showers and
thunderstorms should be most numerous near the Tennessee River
and Alabama state line. Once again, organized severe storms are
not expected. Dry conditions are expected Sunday with highs in the
low 90s as the focus turns to the Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical storm Cristobal is expected to approach the Coast of
Louisiana early Sunday. Its exact track will be the single biggest
factor in our forecast early next week. Temperatures should trend
cooler due to clouds and rain could be significant. Models are in
good agreement through Monday, but diverge a bit beginning
Tuesday morning. The ECMWF currently has a deeper low and a more
East track over West Arkansas resulting in a better chance of
gusty wind and heavy rain for portions of the
Midsouth...especially East Arkansas.

By Tuesday evening into Wednesday, whats left of the storm should
get caught up in the Westerlies and begin to shift off to the
Northeast. Current WPC QPF Tuesday into Wednesday across the
Midsouth is 1-2 inches.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF Set

Kept mention of VCTS wording at KMEM and KMKL for broken line of
convection that is moving eastward at this time. Expect the
convection to diminish by 02Z. Another round of showers could
develop around 06-08Z in NE AR to the TN/MS border. However, better
chances for convection could occur Friday afternoon with a line
of thunderstorms diving south out of Missouri as well as some
diurnal development. Have introduced VCTS wording at 19-20Z at all
TAF sites. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail unless
convection impacts a TAF site. Winds will become light and
variable during the overnight hours tonight. After sunrise, winds
will become WSW at 7-10 KTS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-052230-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
318 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms this evening
mainly before midnight across North Mississippi and West
Tennessee. Damaging winds will be primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

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