Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
921 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.UPDATE...Morning update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures are warming very quickly across the Midsouth, already
approaching the middle 80s across much of the area with dew points
in the low to middle 70s. As a result, SBCAPE is over 1500 across
most of the area and over 2500 over the Delta near and South of
Memphis. The SPC upgraded most of the Midsouth to a Slight risk
for severe thunderstorms with areas near the Tennessee River and
along the Alabama state line in a Marginal Risk. Damaging wind is
the main threat with a secondary threat of hail. The threat of
severe weather should diminish after sunset.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 624 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020/

Currently...All is quiet for the moment across the Mid-South.
Upper ridging continues to the west with mostly clear skies and
light winds across the region. Temps are mostly in the lower 70s.

Today...Monitoring a convective complex over NE KS/NW MO that
looks to be the main weather producer later today. Expect the
outflow boundary from that overnight convection to move south into
the Mid-South later today. The upper ridge will start to nose
into the middle MS Valley this morning and latest CAMs have the
boundary tracking basically due south over the western half of the
forecast area. This boundary will intercept an very unstable
airmass as SBCAPEs are forecast to climb to 3000-4000+ J/KG by
late morning. CAMs have a range of solutions but the general sense
is that a MCS will develop and track south across mainly western
sections of the forecast area...MO Bootheel...east AR...SW TN and
NW MS this afternoon into early this evening. Given the degree of
instability expect a few severe storms with damaging winds as the
main threat and large hail a secondary threat. There is a slight
risk for severe weather generally along and west of the MS River.
Trended toward the slightly cooler guidance today given the
expected MCS. Synoptic guidance is generally missing this
convection which explains the warmer high temps.

Tonight...Expect some thunderstorms around early in the evening
as with potential MCS but activity should move south of the area
by 03z followed by a quiet overnight period and mild temps.

Saturday and Sunday...Upper ridge will strengthen over the region
with decreasing rain chances and increasing temps. Still could be
a few popup thunderstorms Saturday afternoon before the ridge
suppresses most all convection by Sunday. Slightly drier air will
work in from the east and northeast on Sunday dropping the
dewpoints to a slightly more comfortable level. Temps however will
be climbing into the lower 90s. Expect afternoon heat index values
to perhaps touch 100F on Saturday. The slightly drier air on
Sunday will knock a few degrees off the heat index.

Monday through Wednesday...Cristobal is expected to make landfall
along the north Gulf coast Sunday night with the remnants tracking
north through Arkansas Monday afternoon through Tuesday. There
will be the potential for heavy rain and gusty winds across
western sections of the forecast area. There could be an isolated
tornado threat as well which is typical on the eastern side of
tropical systems. It is still early and impacts will obviously
depend on the exact track of the system. After the remnants of
Cristobal race north a cold front will sweep through on Wednesday
with a continued chance for showers and thunderstorms. Dry and
seasonable weather should return by Thursday.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF cycle

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail for much of the forecast
period. Some fog has developed this morning in the KMKL area but
should not last too much longer. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected across much of the Mid-South this afternoon. Winds will
be mainly from the west at around 5 knots before becoming light
and variable tonight.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
730 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-061430-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
730 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few severe storms are possible this afternoon into early this
evening mainly across eastern Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel,
southwest Tennessee and northwest Mississippi. Damaging winds will
be the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Heat index values may reach 100 degrees Saturday afternoon.

The remnants of Cristobal are expected to track through Arkansas
Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Heavy rain and gusty winds are
possible across parts of the Mid-South. Additional impacts from
the system could include isolated tornadoes. Since potential
impacts depend on the track of this system, monitor the latest
forecast information for updates.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early this
evening.

SJM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1020 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ009-018-MOZ113-051545-
Greene AR-Clay AR-Dunklin MO-
1020 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1045 AM CDT
FOR...

Greene County in eastern Arkansas...
Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 1019 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Fisk to Corning to near Pocahontas. Movement was southeast
at 40 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Greene...Clay and northeastern Dunklin Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3656 8996 3613 9038 3597 9081
      3597 9085 3608 9082 3615 9075 3615 9081
      3629 9081 3630 9079 3628 9075 3642 9076
      3643 9077 3650 9059 3650 9022 3663 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1519Z 335DEG 36KT 3673 9027 3642 9057 3624 9107

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

ARZ009-MOZ113-115-051630-
Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
1055 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1130 AM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northwestern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 1055 AM CDT...strong thunderstorms producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located along a line extending
from near Essex, to near Malden, to near Pollard. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Clay...northwestern Pemiscot and northeastern
Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3645 8996 3639 8997 3639 8982
      3622 9009 3650 9045 3650 9022 3653 9022
      3654 9021 3655 9019 3658 9018 3660 9010
      3663 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 1555Z 314DEG 28KT 3682 8982 3656 9005 3638 9031

MJ