Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar imagery shows activity finally moving into eastern
Arkansas. Current mesoanalysis and short range models shows the
environment is favorable for damaging winds and hail. Instability
and low level shear will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward
towards Missouri. The tornado threat seems to ramp up for this
afternoons storms with low level helicity values increasing but
the main threats will likely be damaging wind and large hail.
Short range models indicate showers continuing until 8 PM for the
first round. The tornado threat should diminish as the second
round of showers moves through later tonight into tomorrow morning
as a cold front approaches the area. There could be some
potential for storms later in the evening Tuesday but confidence
is low.

Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will generally be in the upper
60s. Cooler air will move into the area as the front passes allowing
for breezy conditions and high temperatures to be in the mid 70s.

Showers will finally end by Wednesday as the trough finally moves to
our east. Dry weather will persist through Thursday allowing for
pleasant weather. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will generally be in the lower
50s.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will approach the area
Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front moves towards the
area. So far, instability looks to be minimal but there could be the
potential for strong to severe storms. It's a little too early to
mention in the HWO at this time but we will continue to monitor.

Temperatures will drop this weekend into the 60s as a large upper
trough over the Great Lakes and the eastern U.S. will push cooler
air into the Mid-South. Lows this weekend will be in the 40s with
the potential for a freeze. Will continue to monitor.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Convection over the Ozarks will move quickly eastward this
afternoon, potentially affecting JBR/MKL. Gusty west winds and
hail are possible with this convection. Another round of
convectionis possible tonight as the cold front moves through
the area. However, there remains some uncertainty as to whether
this line will hold together. Decided to use VCTS/VCSH to denote
this possibility with the understanding that TS may be needed on
station at some point.

Otherwise, expect gradually improving ceilings today as a warm
front lifts north. This will result in increasing southerly winds
this afternoon and evening, eventually shifting from the west-
northwest early Tuesday behind the cold front. Additional low
ceilings around 2000 ft are possible late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are possible north of a Helena-West Helena,
Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi line this afternoon into this
evening. The best chance for severe weather will be across
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee.
The most likely time for severe weather will be between 2 pm and
midnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats
though a tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this
evening. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
553 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             HOLCOMB                 36.40N  90.02W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       DUNKLIN            MO   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
554 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ028-MOZ113-115-TNZ019-048-042315-
Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-Lauderdale TN-Dyer TN-
554 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR...

Northern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Southeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...
Northwestern Lauderdale County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Dyer County in western Tennessee...

At 554 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds to 45 mph was located over Gosnell, moving
southeast at 75 mph.

People in northern Mississippi...southwestern Pemiscot...southeastern
Dunklin...northwestern Lauderdale and southwestern Dyer Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3586 9016 3607 9009 3608 8929 3568 8975
TIME...MOT...LOC 2254Z 300DEG 65KT 3597 8994

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N  88.83W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL CHRISTMASVILLE ROAD ON MADISON CO
            LINE.

&&

SMW