Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
649 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.UPDATE...

Updated for 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020/

DISCUSSION...
Current radar imagery shows activity finally moving into eastern
Arkansas. Current mesoanalysis and short range models shows the
environment is favorable for damaging winds and hail. Instability
and low level shear will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward
towards Missouri. The tornado threat seems to ramp up for this
afternoons storms with low level helicity values increasing but
the main threats will likely be damaging wind and large hail.
Short range models indicate showers continuing until 8 PM for the
first round. The tornado threat should diminish as the second
round of showers moves through later tonight into tomorrow morning
as a cold front approaches the area. There could be some
potential for storms later in the evening Tuesday but confidence
is low.

Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will generally be in the upper
60s. Cooler air will move into the area as the front passes allowing
for breezy conditions and high temperatures to be in the mid 70s.

Showers will finally end by Wednesday as the trough finally moves to
our east. Dry weather will persist through Thursday allowing for
pleasant weather. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will generally be in the lower
50s.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will approach the area
Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front moves towards the
area. So far, instability looks to be minimal but there could be the
potential for strong to severe storms. It's a little too early to
mention in the HWO at this time but we will continue to monitor.

Temperatures will drop this weekend into the 60s as a large upper
trough over the Great Lakes and the eastern U.S. will push cooler
air into the Mid-South. Lows this weekend will be in the 40s with
the potential for a freeze. Will continue to monitor.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
/00z TAFs/

Convection continues to progress to the east across West Tennessee
this evening potentially impacting MKL. Gusty winds and hail are
possible with this convection. Another round of storms is possible
tonight as a cold front moves through the area. There still
remains some uncertainty as to how well this will hold together
while moving towards the area. Maintained the use of VCTS at JBR
at 05/03Z, however, did not include the mention of VCSH/VCTS
anywhere else. Will need to monitor.

Cigs will improve as the frontal boundary lifts north resulting in
increasing southerly winds. Gusty winds will shift to the
northwest with the passage of the cold front early Tuesday.
Additional MVFR cigs near 2000ft are possible as early as 05/10Z
Tuesday.

17

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are possible north of a Helena-West Helena,
Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi line this afternoon into this
evening. The best chance for severe weather will be across
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee.
The most likely time for severe weather will be between 2 pm and
midnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats
though a tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this
evening. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

SJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0606 PM     HAIL             JACKSON                 35.63N  88.83W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       MADISON            TN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL CHRISTMASVILLE ROAD ON MADISON CO
            LINE.

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 PM     HAIL             BLUE GOOSE              35.70N  88.58W
05/04/2020  M1.25 INCH       HENDERSON          TN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL IN BLUE GOOSE

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             HUMBOLDT                35.82N  88.91W
05/04/2020  M1.75 INCH       GIBSON             TN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
633 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

TNZ020-021-050000-
Carroll TN-Gibson TN-
633 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 700 PM CDT
FOR...

West central Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 633 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Dyer, or 8 miles
northwest of Trenton, moving southeast at 70 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in west central Carroll and Gibson Counties should monitor
this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3593 8835 3587 8880 3602 8918 3603 8916
      3609 8916 3621 8908 3620 8907
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 296DEG 71KT 3607 8905

SGW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     HAIL             MEDINA                  35.80N  88.77W
05/04/2020  E1.00 INCH       GIBSON             TN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN MEDINA

&&

SMW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON MAY 04 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 S DYERSBURG           35.92N  89.38W
05/04/2020                   DYER               TN   PUBLIC

            MPING REPORT OF TREES UPROOTED SOUTH OF DYERSBURG.

&&