Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
303 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Current radar imagery shows activity finally moving into eastern
Arkansas. Current mesoanalysis and short range models shows the
environment is favorable for damaging winds and hail. Instability
and low level shear will ramp up as a warm front lifts northward
towards Missouri. The tornado threat seems to ramp up for this
afternoons storms with low level helicity values increasing but
the main threats will likely be damaging wind and large hail.
Short range models indicate showers continuing until 8 PM for the
first round. The tornado threat should diminish as the second
round of showers moves through later tonight into tomorrow morning
as a cold front approaches the area. There could be some
potential for storms later in the evening Tuesday but confidence
is low.

Temperatures tonight into tomorrow will generally be in the upper
60s. Cooler air will move into the area as the front passes allowing
for breezy conditions and high temperatures to be in the mid 70s.

Showers will finally end by Wednesday as the trough finally moves to
our east. Dry weather will persist through Thursday allowing for
pleasant weather. Highs Wednesday and Thursday will generally be in
the upper 60s to lower 70s. Lows will generally be in the lower
50s.

The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will approach the area
Thursday night into Friday morning as a cold front moves towards the
area. So far, instability looks to be minimal but there could be the
potential for strong to severe storms. It's a little too early to
mention in the HWO at this time but we will continue to monitor.

Temperatures will drop this weekend into the 60s as a large upper
trough over the Great Lakes and the eastern U.S. will push cooler
air into the Mid-South. Lows this weekend will be in the 40s with
the potential for a freeze. Will continue to monitor.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
/18z TAFs/

Convection over the Ozarks will move quickly eastward this
afternoon, potentially affecting JBR/MKL. Gusty west winds and
hail are possible with this convection. Another round of
convectionis possible tonight as the cold front moves through
the area. However, there remains some uncertainty as to whether
this line will hold together. Decided to use VCTS/VCSH to denote
this possibility with the understanding that TS may be needed on
station at some point.

Otherwise, expect gradually improving ceilings today as a warm
front lifts north. This will result in increasing southerly winds
this afternoon and evening, eventually shifting from the west-
northwest early Tuesday behind the cold front. Additional low
ceilings around 2000 ft are possible late tonight into Tuesday
morning.

MJ

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-051115-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
405 AM CDT Mon May 4 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Severe storms are possible north of a Helena-West Helena,
Arkansas to Tupelo, Mississippi line this afternoon into this
evening. The best chance for severe weather will be across
Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and Northwest Tennessee.
The most likely time for severe weather will be between 2 pm and
midnight. Damaging winds and large hail are the main threats
though a tornado is possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

The probability of widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into this
evening. Please relay any information about observed severe
weather to the NWS while following all local, state, and CDC
guidelines.

SJM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
356 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ009-MOZ113-042130-
Clay AR-Dunklin MO-
356 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 430 PM CDT
FOR...

Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 356 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Neelyville, or 8
miles north of Corning, moving east at 60 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in Clay and northeastern Dunklin Counties should monitor this
storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3626 9004 3627 9065 3639 9075
      3642 9076 3644 9078 3649 9077 3650 9078
      3650 9022 3654 9021 3655 9019 3659 9019
      3663 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 291DEG 50KT 3652 9055

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
429 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

TNZ049-050-052-089-090-042215-
Hardeman TN-Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Madison TN-Haywood TN-
429 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Hardeman County in western Tennessee...
Southeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Northeastern Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Southern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 428 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger was located 8 miles southeast of Covington, moving east at 45
mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northwestern Hardeman...southeastern Tipton...northeastern
Fayette...southwestern Madison and southern Haywood Counties should
monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3535 8897 3539 8964 3557 8963 3558 8951
      3558 8950 3559 8949 3565 8896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 267DEG 39KT 3549 8954

SGW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
432 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

ARZ009-MOZ113-115-042215-
Clay AR-Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
432 PM CDT Mon May 4 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 515 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Clay County in eastern Arkansas...
Northern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...
Northeastern Dunklin County in southeastern Missouri...

At 432 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located over Saint Francis, or
near Piggott, moving east at 45 mph.

Very heavy rain is also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Clay...northern Pemiscot and northeastern
Dunklin Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3663 8996 3639 8997 3639 8975 3643 8973
      3640 8967 3641 8960 3634 8955 3634 8960
      3633 8962 3627 9025 3650 9024 3650 9022
      3654 9021 3655 9019 3659 9019 3663 9015
TIME...MOT...LOC 2132Z 267DEG 39KT 3643 9013

SGW

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