Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
833 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Skies are cloudy across much of the Mid-South this evening with
temperatures from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees. The first
area of thunderstorms is finally moving out of the eastern side of
the Mid-South with another large area of thunderstorms about to
enter the region from the west. Some of these thunderstorms could
produce damaging winds and large hail so a Severe Thunderstorm
Watch has been issued for roughly the western half of the Mid-
South until 1 AM CDT.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 412 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/

UPDATE...Updated to remove the Tornado watch from North
Mississippi. Redevelopment looks questionable at this time.
Adjusted pops/weather accordingly.

30

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 223 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020/

DISCUSSION...

SEVERE WEATHER IS STILL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

A tornado watch remains in effect for North Mississippi. The last
few HRRR runs backed off of the 2nd round of thunderstorms this
evening, but has now increased coverage once again. However, the
surface low that was once well defined, tracking just South of
Memphis is much more diffuse as it tracks into West TN. The warm
front remains to our South but should begin to surge North over
the next few hours ushering in mid-60 degree dew points into
portions of North Mississippi. As this deeper moisture arrives, a
shortwave trough and 70kt mid level jet will shift across the
area. Low level shear remains impressive, 0-1km SRH in excess of
400 m2/s2 should be more than sufficient to support supercellular
storms capable of producing tornadoes and widespread damaging
wind. The main limiting factor will be surface based instability,
which will remain limited until the warm front surges North. The
highest potential for a strong long tracked tornado will likely be
right along or just North of the warm front before sunset.

It is highly uncertain if additional storms will develop along the
cold front but if they do, conditions will be favorable for fast
moving short lived tornadoes as well as damaging wind. By
Midnight, the threat of any severe weather should be over.

Cooler conditions will arrive tomorrow.  Expect temperatures
around 15 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday with highs in
the 50s followed by a warming trend Wednesday and Thursday. By
Thursday we should see highs in the middle to upper 60s across
most of the Midsouth. There could be frost across portions of West
Tennessee, the Missouri Bootheel and Northeast Arkansas Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings.

A broad trough will deepen over much of the Eastern US Early in
the work week, a weak disturbance rounding the base of the trough
could result in a few light showers Tuesday, but otherwise dry
conditions are expected through Friday.

Expect near to slightly below normal temperatures Friday into the
weekend. No organized storm systems are expected though it looks
like a few additional showers are possible Friday night.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF cycle

Low clouds will continue to cover much of the Mid-South tonight
and will remain through the overnight hours. Showers and
thunderstorms are moving across portions of north Mississippi at
this time. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move into the
region late tonight. Winds will be mainly from the south at 10 to
15 knots this evening before gradually shifting to the west and
increasing to 15 to 20 knots and gusty overnight.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead-
     Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips-
     Poinsett-St. Francis.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot.

MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-
     Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-
     Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-
     Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS-Calhoun-
     Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS-Marshall-
     Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Tallahatchie-Tate-
     Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha.

TN...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

     Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN-Carroll-
     Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Hardeman-
     Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale-Madison-
     McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
839 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-140345-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
839 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are still possible across much of the
Midsouth. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main threats
with thunderstorms that become severe. An isolated tornado is
possible.

A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for all of the Midsouth as in
excess of 5 inches of rainfall is possible now through midnight.

A Wind Advisory remains in effect for the entire Mid-South through
the overnight hours. Sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts to 40
mph are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Frost is possible in portions of Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri
Bootheel, and Northwest TN Wednesday morning and possibly again
Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon into
evening in support of severe weather operations. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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