Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Memphis, TN

470 
WWUS54 KMEG 090413
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1113 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

MOC069-155-090423-
/O.CAN.KMEG.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-200409T0430Z/
Pemiscot MO-Dunklin MO-
1113 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PEMISCOT AND
SOUTHEASTERN DUNKLIN COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3599 8973 3596 8972 3592 8965 3590 8965
      3592 8964 3592 8959 3585 8944 3567 8967
      3592 9015 3596 9008 3600 8985 3600 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 297DEG 40KT 3583 8968 

$$

ARC093-TNC097-090430-
/O.CON.KMEG.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-200409T0430Z/
Mississippi AR-Lauderdale TN-
1113 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES...

At 1113 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast
of Ashport, or 9 miles northwest of Ripley, moving southeast at 45
mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Blytheville, Ripley, Gosnell, Dell, Burdette, Ashport, Barr, Edith,
Dearman, Barfield, Dryhill, O'Donnell Bend, Tomato, Rosa, Tuckertown,
Luckett, Burton, Woodland Corner, Hickman and Lens Ford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southeastern
Missouri. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for
eastern Arkansas...and western Tennessee.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3599 8973 3596 8972 3592 8965 3590 8965
      3592 8964 3592 8959 3585 8944 3567 8967
      3592 9015 3596 9008 3600 8985 3600 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 297DEG 40KT 3583 8968 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

905 
WWUS54 KMEG 090431
SVSMEG

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1131 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARC093-TNC097-090441-
/O.EXP.KMEG.SV.W.0113.000000T0000Z-200409T0430Z/
Mississippi AR-Lauderdale TN-
1131 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHERN LAUDERDALE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CDT for eastern
Arkansas...and western Tennessee.

LAT...LON 3599 8973 3596 8972 3592 8965 3590 8965
      3592 8964 3592 8959 3585 8944 3567 8967
      3592 9015 3596 9008 3600 8985 3600 8977
TIME...MOT...LOC 0431Z 297DEG 40KT 3575 8948 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020/

DISCUSSION...
It's been a very pleasant day so far with temperatures in the upper
70s. A few showers are developing over northern Mississippi, nothing
severe at this time but the area has a modest amount of instability,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and wind shear will support the
potential for hail. However, the main focus will be on the overnight
hours. A front will drop down from the north into the region,
instability and and shear ramp up just ahead of the front. Short
range models continue to support to a line of severe storms with
damaging winds and large hail, with a secondary threat of tornadoes
embedded within the line. Very steep mid-level lapse rates on the
order of 7 C/km will be favorable for large hail. Hailstones over 2
inches in diameter are possible initially as it moves through
eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Coverage of damaging
winds could increase as the storms organize into a line. Timing
continues to stay on track, with the line moving into eastern
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by 8 PM then moving our of the
area by 4 AM. The line should move through quickly and by
completely out by sunrise.

Mainly clear skies and much cooler northwest winds are expected
Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will generally be in
the low to mid 60s. By Friday, a surface high pressure will begin
to build over the area, allowing for clear skies with temperatures
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A weak upper-level disturbance may drag some showers eastward into
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Saturday morning before
completely drying up, but most of the area should remain dry
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s.

Our next weather-maker will move into the area Saturday night into
Sunday night. The 12Z guidance is better agreement in lifting a
surface low through the Mid-South then northward. However, the ECMWF
still seems slower than other models in bringing this system
eastward. Severe weather is definitely a possibility if models
align properly. However, this will depend on how far the warm
sector advances into the region.

Guidance gets spotty after Sunday, with some guidance bringing PoPs
to the area Tuesday night through Wednesday in association with an
upper trough to our west. Have added a slight chance of PoPs, but
we will likely remain dry through this period.

Otherwise, temperatures will be below normal through the work week.
With low temperatures in the lower 40s throughout the week.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Expect a semi-discrete cluster of storms to develop into a broken
to solid line, racing southeast through all sites starting around
03Z and eventually moving towards TUP around 06Z. Large hail
potential will be greatest around JBR, gradually decreasing as
storms move southeast to MEM and MKL and eventually TUP. As large
hail threat decreases, strong wind threat will increase.

Skies will clear up as the front passes, around 09Z at JBR and VFR
conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-100145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight through early Thursday
morning across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West
Tennessee. The primary threats include large hail and damaging
winds. Tornadoes and localized heavy rainfall will be secondary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong to severe storms are possible across portions northeast
Mississippi Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
930 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

TNZ020-021-051-052-090300-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Gibson TN-
930 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Northern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Southern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 930 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Humboldt, moving
east at 40 mph.

People in southwestern Carroll...northern Madison...Crockett and
southern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3582 8855 3582 8858 3580 8860 3579 8860
      3579 8861 3573 8861 3559 8869 3580 8931
      3598 8919 3584 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 290DEG 35KT 3579 8896

MJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HAIL             4 S RECTOR              36.21N  90.29W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       CLAY               AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0936 PM     HAIL             4 N MARMADUKE           36.25N  90.39W
04/08/2020  E0.75 INCH       GREENE             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

ARS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1002 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

TNZ052>054-090345-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-
1002 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR...

Northwestern Henderson County in western Tennessee...
North central Chester County in western Tennessee...
Central Madison County in western Tennessee...

At 1001 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Adair, or near
Jackson, moving east at 30 mph.

People in northwestern Henderson...north central Chester and central
Madison Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3550 8858 3563 8899 3570 8898 3577 8891
      3576 8850
TIME...MOT...LOC 0301Z 286DEG 25KT 3567 8892

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1005 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

TNZ049-050-089-090345-
Tipton TN-Fayette TN-Haywood TN-
1005 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1045 PM CDT
FOR...

Southeastern Tipton County in western Tennessee...
Fayette County in western Tennessee...
Southwestern Haywood County in western Tennessee...

At 1005 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing wind gusts up to 50
mph was located near Arlington, or 15 miles south of Covington,
moving east at 40 mph.

People in southeastern Tipton...Fayette and southwestern Haywood
Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3516 8920 3513 8964 3557 8963 3561 8918
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 275DEG 34KT 3535 8961

MJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1037 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARZ028-MOZ115-090400-
Mississippi AR-Pemiscot MO-
1037 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Mississippi County in eastern Arkansas...
Southwestern Pemiscot County in southeastern Missouri...

At 1036 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea to nickel size
hail and winds at least 40 mph was located over Hornersville, or
near Senath, moving southeast at 25 mph.

Very heavy rain along with continuous cloud to ground lightning are
also possible with this thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Mississippi and southwestern Pemiscot Counties
should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3610 8994 3595 8972 3575 8988 3576 8991
      3575 8993 3589 9015 3600 9004 3600 8996
      3608 8996
TIME...MOT...LOC 0336Z 303DEG 20KT 3603 9016