Severe Thunderstorm Warning 109, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
628 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated 00Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 336 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020/

DISCUSSION...
It's been a very pleasant day so far with temperatures in the upper
70s. A few showers are developing over northern Mississippi, nothing
severe at this time but the area has a modest amount of instability,
steep mid-level lapse rates, and wind shear will support the
potential for hail. However, the main focus will be on the overnight
hours. A front will drop down from the north into the region,
instability and and shear ramp up just ahead of the front. Short
range models continue to support to a line of severe storms with
damaging winds and large hail, with a secondary threat of tornadoes
embedded within the line. Very steep mid-level lapse rates on the
order of 7 C/km will be favorable for large hail. Hailstones over 2
inches in diameter are possible initially as it moves through
eastern Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. Coverage of damaging
winds could increase as the storms organize into a line. Timing
continues to stay on track, with the line moving into eastern
Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel by 8 PM then moving our of the
area by 4 AM. The line should move through quickly and by
completely out by sunrise.

Mainly clear skies and much cooler northwest winds are expected
Thursday and Thursday night. Highs Thursday will generally be in
the low to mid 60s. By Friday, a surface high pressure will begin
to build over the area, allowing for clear skies with temperatures
in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A weak upper-level disturbance may drag some showers eastward into
southeast Missouri and southern Illinois Saturday morning before
completely drying up, but most of the area should remain dry
Saturday. Temperatures Saturday will generally be in the mid to
upper 60s.

Our next weather-maker will move into the area Saturday night into
Sunday night. The 12Z guidance is better agreement in lifting a
surface low through the Mid-South then northward. However, the ECMWF
still seems slower than other models in bringing this system
eastward. Severe weather is definitely a possibility if models
align properly. However, this will depend on how far the warm
sector advances into the region.

Guidance gets spotty after Sunday, with some guidance bringing PoPs
to the area Tuesday night through Wednesday in association with an
upper trough to our west. Have added a slight chance of PoPs, but
we will likely remain dry through this period.

Otherwise, temperatures will be below normal through the work week.
With low temperatures in the lower 40s throughout the week.

SGW

&&

.AVIATION...
/00Z TAFs/
Expect a semi-discrete cluster of storms to develop into a broken
to solid line, racing southeast through all sites starting around
03Z and eventually moving towards TUP around 06Z. Large hail
potential will be greatest around JBR, gradually decreasing as
storms move southeast to MEM and MKL and eventually TUP. As large
hail threat decreases, strong wind threat will increase.

Skies will clear up as the front passes, around 09Z at JBR and VFR
conditions will prevail through the rest of the TAF period.

SGW

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-100145-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
636 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected tonight through early Thursday
morning across Northeast Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel, and West
Tennessee. The primary threats include large hail and damaging
winds. Tornadoes and localized heavy rainfall will be secondary
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Strong to severe storms are possible across portions northeast
Mississippi Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
719 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0712 PM     HAIL             3 WNW EGYPT             35.88N  91.00W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORT 1" HAIL

&&

SMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
819 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

TNZ003-090200-
Weakley TN-
819 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR...

Northeastern Weakley County in western Tennessee...

At 819 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing penny to nickel size
hail and winds 35 to 45 mph was located 7 miles west of Lynnville, or
10 miles east of Fulton, moving southeast at 35 mph.

Dangerous cloud to ground lightning is also possible with this
thunderstorm.

People in northeastern Weakley County should monitor this storm
closely.

LAT...LON 3640 8852 3637 8853 3650 8880 3650 8852
TIME...MOT...LOC 0119Z 304DEG 32KT 3655 8870

KRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
833 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0831 PM     HAIL             2 NNW JONESBORO         35.85N  90.71W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       CRAIGHEAD          AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
857 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0836 PM     HAIL             9 E PURYEAR             36.44N  88.17W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

ARS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT WED APR 08 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0846 PM     HAIL             COTTAGE GROVE           36.38N  88.48W
04/08/2020  E1.00 INCH       HENRY              TN   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

ARS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
930 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

TNZ020-021-051-052-090300-
Carroll TN-Madison TN-Crockett TN-Gibson TN-
930 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
FOR...

Southwestern Carroll County in western Tennessee...
Northern Madison County in western Tennessee...
Crockett County in western Tennessee...
Southern Gibson County in western Tennessee...

At 930 PM CDT...a strong thunderstorm producing pea size hail or
larger and winds at least 40 mph was located near Humboldt, moving
east at 40 mph.

People in southwestern Carroll...northern Madison...Crockett and
southern Gibson Counties should monitor this storm closely.

LAT...LON 3582 8855 3582 8858 3580 8860 3579 8860
      3579 8861 3573 8861 3559 8869 3580 8931
      3598 8919 3584 8854
TIME...MOT...LOC 0230Z 290DEG 35KT 3579 8896

MJ