Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

697 
WGUS74 KMAF 152221
FFSMAF

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
521 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXC003-033-115-165-317-160000-
/O.CON.KMAF.FF.W.0012.000000T0000Z-200516T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-Borden TX-Martin TX-Dawson TX-
521 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN ANDREWS...SOUTHEASTERN GAINES...NORTHWESTERN BORDEN...
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN AND DAWSON COUNTIES...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing heavy
rain across the warned area. Up to two inches of rain have already
fallen. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas, 
         highways, streets and underpasses as well as other drainage 
         and low lying areas.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Lamesa, Lamesa Municipal Airport, Los Ybanez, Sparenberg, Tenmile,
Patricia, Punkin Center, Arvana, Hancock, Key and Klondike.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause flooding of small
creeks and streams, country roads, farmland, and other low lying
spots.

&&

LAT...LON 3242 10186 3243 10246 3256 10246 3296 10204
      3296 10130

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

10

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
133 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A shortwave trough moving across Nrn Mexico and Southern NM today
will move into W TX during the evening.  This trough will pass east
overnight with high pressure building in behind it.  The next upper
low hits the West Coast Sunday with the backside of this low moving
down across Srn CA Tuesday before lifting NE across the Great Basin
Wednesday.  With the low moving so far north it will have little
impact on the area other than helping to displace the ridge
somewhat.

Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will remain near to slightly above
normal in the 80s with 90s for the usual warm places.  On Monday
temperatures increase into the 90s nearly area wide and remain above
normal through the rest of the week.  Lows will also be warmer than
normal and generally in the 60s.

Thunderstorms fired early over Brewster county before noon and grew
quickly but have since leveled off.  Looking at storms for the
eastern 2/3rds of the area through tonight with development on the
dryline. There is possibility of severe storms this afternoon and
evening... there is an enhanced risk in effect for the NE Permian
Basin with a slight risk east of a Seminole... Pyote... to Alpine
line. Large hail and damaging wind should be the main threats but
locally heavy rain will also be possible.  Cape and lapse rates look
favorable for severe weather... cannot rule out an isolated weak
tornado but shear looks limited. These storms will be moving east
overnight and should be gone from the area by 12z Saturday. Long
range models develop some low probability of storms mid week but
coverage looks random... for the most part the coming week looks
dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     61  85  62  86 /  60  10   0  10
Carlsbad                       56  93  60  91 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         64  96  68  91 /  60   0   0  10
Fort Stockton                  60  94  64  88 /  50   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  84  57  84 /  10   0   0  10
Hobbs                          54  87  58  88 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          47  89  51  88 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           60  88  63  89 /  40   0   0   0
Odessa                         60  88  63  89 /  40   0   0   0
Wink                           58  92  62  92 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

12/72

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
132 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-059>063-067>070-075-082-
270>282-161845-
Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County-Eddy County Plains-
Northern Lea County-Central Lea County-Southern Lea County-Gaines-
Dawson-Borden-Scurry-Andrews-Martin-Howard-Mitchell-Loving-Winkler-
Ector-Midland-Glasscock-Ward-Crane-Upton-Reagan-Pecos-Terrell-
Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains-
Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Eastern Culberson County-
Reeves County Plains-Chinati Mountains-Marfa Plateau-Davis Mountains-
Davis Mountains Foothills-Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-
Presidio Valley-Lower Brewster County-
132 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020 /1232 PM MDT Fri May 15 2020/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of southeast New
Mexico, southwest Texas, and western Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening
across West Texas mainly from the Lower Trans Pecos extending north
and northeast into much of the Permian Basin. Large damaging hail
and damaging winds, localized flooding, and cloud to ground
lightning are the main concerns.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed by this afternoon across
the Permian Basin, Lower Trans Pecos and Big Bend Region of west
Texas.

Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state and CDC guidelines.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories,
and statements issued by the National Weather Service Office in
Midland, can be found on the internet at...
https://weather.gov/midland

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
325 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ061-152115-
Ector TX-
325 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ECTOR COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 324 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms near
West Odessa, or 12 miles west of Odessa, moving east northeast at 15
mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Odessa, Goldsmith, West Odessa, Odessa Schlemeyer Field, Notrees and
Penwell.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 101 and 121.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3169 10256 3190 10278 3208 10275 3208 10230
      3172 10230
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 209DEG 13KT 3189 10258

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
329 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ045-152100-
Gaines TX-
329 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL GAINES COUNTY UNTIL 400
PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Gaines County Airport, or near Seminole, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Seminole, Gaines County Airport and Paynes Corner.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3260 10262 3259 10281 3283 10281 3276 10241
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 241DEG 16KT 3267 10265

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
332 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ060-061-067-068-152130-
Crane TX-Ector TX-Ward TX-Winkler TX-
332 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN ECTOR...NORTHEASTERN
WARD...SOUTHEASTERN WINKLER AND NORTHWESTERN CRANE COUNTIES UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

At 331 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Monahans, moving northeast at 10 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monahans, Thorntonville, Grandfalls, Royalty, Roy Hurd Memorial
Airport and Monahans Sandhills State Park.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 76 and 93.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3133 10288 3154 10300 3175 10276 3140 10249
TIME...MOT...LOC 2031Z 242DEG 9KT 3147 10286

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
336 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ045-050-152115-
Andrews TX-Gaines TX-
336 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL ANDREWS AND SOUTH
CENTRAL GAINES COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 336 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles northwest of Andrews, moving north at 5 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Florey and Frankel City.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3235 10261 3238 10282 3263 10281 3257 10250
TIME...MOT...LOC 2036Z 191DEG 6KT 3244 10270

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
346 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ075-082-152145-
Pecos TX-Terrell TX-
346 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PECOS AND
SOUTHWESTERN TERRELL COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanderson, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Sanderson.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Texas.

LAT...LON 2995 10241 3010 10255 3036 10240 3013 10208
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 232DEG 12KT 3008 10242

84

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
348 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

TXZ047-052-152115-
Howard TX-Borden TX-
348 PM CDT Fri May 15 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN BORDEN AND
NORTHEASTERN HOWARD COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 347 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northeast of Luther, or 15 miles south of Gail, moving north at
25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
J B Thomas Reservoir and Vincent.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
western Texas.

LAT...LON 3248 10148 3272 10149 3269 10117 3244 10118
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 191DEG 23KT 3256 10138

10