Tornado Warning 50, NWS Little Rock, AR

288 
WWUS54 KLZK 150615
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1215 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

ARC075-121-135-150700-
/O.CON.KLZK.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201115T0700Z/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
1215 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHERN LAWRENCE AND EAST CENTRAL SHARP
COUNTIES...
    
At 1215 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 3 miles southwest of Annieville, or 9 miles west of 
Lake Charles State Park, moving east at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Pocahontas...                     Walnut Ridge...
Black Rock...                     Lake Charles State Park...
Imboden...                        Ravenden...
College City...                   Portia...
Annieville...                     Smithville...
Powhatan...                       Giles Spur...
Shannon...                        Birdell...
Nelsonville...                    Elnora...
Sitka...                          Fender...
Engelerg...                       Sharum...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9144 3621 9146 3635 9090 3610 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0615Z 260DEG 47KT 3612 9130 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.00IN

$$

46

562 
WWUS54 KLZK 150628
SVSLZK

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

ARC075-121-135-150637-
/O.CAN.KLZK.TO.W.0050.000000T0000Z-201115T0700Z/
Randolph AR-Lawrence AR-Sharp AR-
1228 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN RANDOLPH...NORTHERN LAWRENCE
AND EAST CENTRAL SHARP COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
Rotation has weakened in the thunderstorm that prompted the 
Tornado Warning. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CST for eastern and
north central Arkansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 9144 3621 9146 3635 9090 3610 9083
TIME...MOT...LOC 0625Z 255DEG 40KT 3616 9114 

$$

46

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1138 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.AVIATION...
A cold front is bringing a line of thunderstorms through the area
at this time. VFR and MVFR conditions are anticipated along with
wind gusts to 35kts. Wind gusts to 20kts are expected through the
daytime hours. Skies will generally clear behind the the line of
storms.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 443 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020)
DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

AVIATION...

Moisture continues to stream north ahead of an approaching cold
front...which will bring chances for SHRA/TSRA this evening into
the overnight period as the front drops SE through the state. Some
breezy SRLY winds will be seen ahead of the front...then the winds
will switch to a more NWRLY direction behind the front. Expect
MVFR or lower conditions within the more intense convection with
the front...though some MVFR CIGs may be seen ahead of the front.
Behind the front...expect improving conditions by the daylight
hrs on Sun as more stable air moves into the state.

PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 239 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Primary forecast concerns deal with expected events early in this
forecast period.

Latest data from local radars indicate that the warm
air advection type precipitation that affected mainly northern
sections of the forecast area has moved to the north of the state.

Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest that pre-frontal
convection will be possible just to the west and northwest of the
forecast area, during the late afternoon and early evening, with
the activity then moving quickly to the northeast. The environment
across this area will be supportive of super-cellular convection,
with all severe weather elements possible. Additional
development, in a QLCS pattern, is expected to develop along a
relatively fast moving cold front, to affect the forecast area
during from mid evening through the early morning hours. Windy
conditions will be associated with the frontal boundary. At this
time, wind speeds are not expected to meet headline criteria.

The front is expected to be east of the state by sunrise, along with
all associated precipitation. Dry conditions, and near normal
afternoon temperatures are expected through the rest of this
forecast period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

The long term period will begin w/ a CONUS wide upper air pattern
resembling that of a sine wave. Deep troughing w/ steep hgt fld
gradients will be prevalent over much of the Upper Great Lakes w/
broad ridging across the Cont. Divide. At the sfc, strong high
pressure under forcing for descent will be centered over the Srn
Cntrl US. Under high pressure and N/Erly sfc winds, temps will
remain seasonably normal, and PoPs will be non-existent.

By Thurs, upper-lvl flow will transition to become quasi-zonal w/ an
upper high over the Nrn waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At the low-
lvls, high pressure will shift Ewrd, and an increasing sfc pres grad
will result in stronger Srly winds, allowing for a gradual uptick in
temps and moisture. By the end of the period and heading into the
next weekend, PoPs will return to the fcst as long range guidance is
progging another strong front to surge through the Cntrl Plains and
into the Ozarks.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
245 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur in the late
afternoon and overnight hours. Damaging winds and large hail could
be produced with the strongest storms...though an isolated
tornado could also occur in the late afternoon and early evening.
The area with the best chances for strong or severe thunderstorms
will be across the northwest half of the area. Expect the threat
for hazardous weather to become low by Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be required through the late evening hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

55

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1018 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ003>006-012-013-150500-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-Fulton AR-
1018 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEARCY...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...NORTHERN
BAXTER AND NORTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

At 1017 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Mountain Home to near
Yellville to near Pruitt. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Yellville...                      Jasper...
Gassville...                      Flippin...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Salesville...
Western Grove...                  Viola...
Briarcliff...                     Valley Springs...
Arkawana...                       Dugger...
Diamond Bay...                    Ott...
Ozark Regional Airport...         Gamaliel Landing...
Fawn Park...                      Bull Shoals State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for north
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3638 9201 3611 9260 3599 9295 3602 9326
      3650 9233 3650 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 252DEG 32KT 3644 9232 3623 9265 3603 9308

46

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1104 PM CST SAT NOV 14 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     TSTM WND GST     MOUNTAIN HOME           36.34N  92.38W
11/14/2020  E60 MPH          BAXTER             AR   SOCIAL MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2000556

TRS