Severe Thunderstorm Warning 366, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
443 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated to include the 00Z aviation discussion below...

&&

.AVIATION...

Moisture continues to stream north ahead of an approaching cold
front...which will bring chances for SHRA/TSRA this evening into
the overnight period as the front drops SE through the state. Some
breezy SRLY winds will be seen ahead of the front...then the winds
will switch to a more NWRLY direction behind the front. Expect
MVFR or lower conditions within the more intense convection with
the front...though some MVFR CIGs may be seen ahead of the front.
Behind the front...expect improving conditions by the daylight
hrs on Sun as more stable air moves into the state.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...(ISSUED 239 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020)

SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Monday

Primary forecast concerns deal with expected events early in this
forecast period.

Latest data from local radars indicate that the warm
air advection type precipitation that affected mainly northern
sections of the forecast area has moved to the north of the state.

Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest that pre-frontal
convection will be possible just to the west and northwest of the
forecast area, during the late afternoon and early evening, with
the activity then moving quickly to the northeast. The environment
across this area will be supportive of super-cellular convection,
with all severe weather elements possible. Additional
development, in a QLCS pattern, is expected to develop along a
relatively fast moving cold front, to affect the forecast area
during from mid evening through the early morning hours. Windy
conditions will be associated with the frontal boundary. At this
time, wind speeds are not expected to meet headline criteria.

The front is expected to be east of the state by sunrise, along with
all associated precipitation. Dry conditions, and near normal
afternoon temperatures are expected through the rest of this
forecast period.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Saturday

The long term period will begin w/ a CONUS wide upper air pattern
resembling that of a sine wave. Deep troughing w/ steep hgt fld
gradients will be prevalent over much of the Upper Great Lakes w/
broad ridging across the Cont. Divide. At the sfc, strong high
pressure under forcing for descent will be centered over the Srn
Cntrl US. Under high pressure and N/Erly sfc winds, temps will
remain seasonably normal, and PoPs will be non-existent.

By Thurs, upper-lvl flow will transition to become quasi-zonal w/ an
upper high over the Nrn waters of the Gulf of Mexico. At the low-
lvls, high pressure will shift Ewrd, and an increasing sfc pres grad
will result in stronger Srly winds, allowing for a gradual uptick in
temps and moisture. By the end of the period and heading into the
next weekend, PoPs will return to the fcst as long range guidance is
progging another strong front to surge through the Cntrl Plains and
into the Ozarks.

&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

Aviation...62

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-151100-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
245 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur in the late
afternoon and overnight hours. Damaging winds and large hail could
be produced with the strongest storms...though an isolated
tornado could also occur in the late afternoon and early evening.
The area with the best chances for strong or severe thunderstorms
will be across the northwest half of the area. Expect the threat
for hazardous weather to become low by Sunday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday Through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation may be required through the late evening hours.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1018 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

ARZ003>006-012-013-150500-
Baxter AR-Marion AR-Searcy AR-Newton AR-Boone AR-Fulton AR-
1018 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SEARCY...
NORTHEASTERN NEWTON...SOUTHERN MARION...SOUTHEASTERN BOONE...NORTHERN
BAXTER AND NORTHWESTERN FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CST...

At 1017 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 5 miles northeast of Mountain Home to near
Yellville to near Pruitt. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Mountain Home...                  Bull Shoals...
Yellville...                      Jasper...
Gassville...                      Flippin...
Lakeview in Baxter County...      Salesville...
Western Grove...                  Viola...
Briarcliff...                     Valley Springs...
Arkawana...                       Dugger...
Diamond Bay...                    Ott...
Ozark Regional Airport...         Gamaliel Landing...
Fawn Park...                      Bull Shoals State Park...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CST for north
central Arkansas.

LAT...LON 3638 9201 3611 9260 3599 9295 3602 9326
      3650 9233 3650 9192
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 252DEG 32KT 3644 9232 3623 9265 3603 9308

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