Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
310 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...Significant, life threatening flash flooding likely across
western Arkansas late tonight through Wednesday with river
flooding increasing through the week...

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Persistent, heavy rainfall early today, compounded by record wet
antecedent conditions, led to widespread and significant flash
flooding over much of western Arkansas today. Heavy rain also
contributed to flash flooding over portions of northeast Arkansas
which is now primed for additional high water with any heavy rain
that occurs. Did expand the Flash Flood Watch north and east to
capture this threat and ramped up wording significantly,
especially for hard hit areas in western and southwestern Arkansas.

Models continue advertising a very close repeat performance rain-
wise beginning late tonight (sometime in the midnight to 3 AM time
frame) and continuing into Wednesday afternoon. A potent
atmospheric river continues pumping in very rich, deep moisture
and PWAT values remain in excess of 2 inches. With a nearby
boundary, deep flow parallel to that boundary and significant
moisture transport into the area, several more inches of rain are
likely over roughly the northwestern half of the state and flash
flooding will be possible anywhere in that area.

The most significant flash flood threat will remain across
southwestern and western Arkansas, and modified wording in the
Flash Flood Watch to highlight a developing
...Particularly Dangerous Situation... over those areas. After
coordination with WPC, introduced a high risk excessive rainfall
outlook for areas that saw the most significant rain and impacts
today. Data show Scott county and surrounding counties, generally
encompassed in the WPC high risk, exceed flash flood guidance by
300 to over 1000 percent, which is difficult to conceptualize and
lends confidence to even more significant impacts with the next
round of heavy rain.

Multiple water rescues have taken place today and many roads
across several counties were inundated or washed away. Several
structures including homes and businesses flooded. Again, should
the current forecast pan out (and confidence is high), even worse
impacts are anticipated late tonight through tomorrow. This is
quickly approaching the upper echelon of bad scenarios and poses
a significant risk to lives and property across a large area. Not
heeding warnings, driving on flooded roads, or not evacuating to
higher ground should conditions warrant may prove fatal. Please
exercise an abundance of caution and monitor all forecasts and
warnings. River flooding is also occurring and will slow runoff
from heavy rain. Repeating, this is a potentially dangerous and
grave situation.

An upper trough will eject late in the period and usher in a cold
front and overall drier and unseasonably cool air mass. While the
bulk of heavy rain is expected tonight through tomorrow, some
lingering heavy rain will be possible through early Thursday
morning until the system finally crosses.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Tuesday

An area of low pressure aloft will be over the southern Plains to
begin the long term period with high pressure over the southeast and
southwest U.S. The upper low will track through Arkansas Thursday
night and Friday. A weak area of high pressure will then set up
briefly over Arkansas Friday night and Saturday before a large upper
trough drops into the state from the north Sunday and Monday.

A stalled front in Missouri will move south slowly Thursday
continuing the chances for showers and thunderstorms through Friday.
With high pressure over the area Friday night into early Sunday, dry
weather is anticipated. The next cold front moves through the state
late Sunday into Monday with an increased chance of showers and
thunderstorms through Tuesday.

Below to well below normal temperatures are in the forecast through
the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

River flooding will continue across portions of western Arkansas
in response to tremendous rainfall amounts over the last several
days. This is a developing situation but minor to moderate
flooding will be likely with some potential for major flooding as
successive heavy rain episodes drain into already swollen,
flooded rivers. Flashy rivers may see sudden and dramatic rises,
especially smaller tributaries in the Ouachitas and southern
Ozarks. This will be exceptionally dangerous to anyone near the
rivers so please keep vigilant if near waterways.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  72  79  71 / 100  70  90  60
Camden AR         92  76  87  73 /  50  40  50  30
Harrison AR       75  69  77  68 /  90  50  80  50
Hot Springs AR    83  74  80  72 /  80  70  80  60
Little Rock   AR  86  75  83  73 /  80  70  80  50
Monticello AR     90  77  90  74 /  40  30  40  30
Mount Ida AR      82  73  79  71 /  90  80  90  60
Mountain Home AR  76  70  78  69 /  80  50  80  50
Newport AR        80  72  80  72 / 100  70  80  60
Pine Bluff AR     89  76  85  73 /  60  40  60  40
Russellville AR   77  73  79  72 / 100  80  90  60
Searcy AR         81  73  81  72 /  90  80  80  60
Stuttgart AR      87  74  85  73 /  60  60  60  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Baxter-Boone-
Clark-Cleburne-Conway-Dallas-Faulkner-Fulton-Garland-Grant-Hot
Spring-Independence-Izard-Jackson-Johnson-Lawrence-Logan-Marion-
Montgomery-Newton-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Pulaski-Randolph-Saline-
Scott-Searcy-Sharp-Stone-Van Buren-White-Yell.

&&

Short Term...COOPER / Long Term...51

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021000-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
314 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon with the line of
activity moving east across the state. Isolated tornadoes,
damaging wind, hail, and flash flooding will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Flash flooding remains likely across roughly the northwestern half
of the state late Tuesday night and through Wednesday. The most
significant impacts are expected over western and southwestern
Arkansas where widespread flash flooding has already occurred.

This is quickly approaching the upper echelon of bad scenarios and
poses a significant risk to lives and property across a large
area. Not heeding warnings, driving on flooded roads, or not
evacuating to higher ground should conditions warrant may prove
fatal. Please exercise an abundance of caution and monitor all
forecasts and warnings. River flooding is also occurring and will
slow runoff from heavy rain. This is a potentially dangerous and
grave situation.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

Cooper

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1100 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     FLASH FLOOD      WALNUT RIDGE            36.07N  90.96W
09/01/2020                   LAWRENCE           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SOME STREETS IN AND NEAR WALNUT RIDGE INUNDATED. WATER
            HAS SINCE RECEDED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2000518

COOPER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

ARZ022-031-038-039-011800-
Pope AR-Perry AR-Yell AR-Conway AR-
1235 PM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL PERRY...
SOUTHWESTERN CONWAY...NORTHEASTERN YELL AND SOUTHEASTERN POPE
COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM CDT...

At 1235 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Petit Jean River WMA, or 10 miles south of Russellville, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Russellville...                   Dardanelle...
Atkins...                         Pottsville...
Ola...                            Oppelo...
Petit Jean State Park...          Carden Bottoms...
Petit Jean River WMA...           Galla Creek WMA...
Mosley...                         Birta...
Ada...                            Lakeview in Yell County...
Holla Bend...                     Mt George...
Pontoon...                        Chickalah...
Centerville...

LAT...LON 3500 9321 3517 9330 3535 9293 3510 9280
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 246DEG 21KT 3512 9317

55

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
103 PM CDT TUE SEP 01 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      WALDRON                 34.90N  94.09W
09/01/2020                   SCOTT              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND MULTIPLE WATER RESCUES ACROSS
            THE COUNTY. WATER GETTING INTO HOMES AND BUILDINGS IN
            SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LZK2000519

TRS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
117 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MENA                    34.58N 94.24W
09/01/2020                   POLK               AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            MULTIPLE HOUSE AND VEHICLE RESCUES AS A RESULT OF
            WIDESPREAD FLOODING IN POLK COUNTY. US HIGHWAY 71 WAS
            REPORTED AS FLOODED ALONG WITH SEVERAL COUNTY ROADS.

&&

61

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