Flash Flood Warning 91, NWS Little Rock, AR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
250 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

.Significant flash flooding possible across portions of
southwestern, western, and central Arkansas through Thursday
morning...

.SHORT TERM...Today Through Wednesday Night

Regarding the short term, the fcst remains highly concerning for
flooding potential across portions of Wrn, S/Wrn, and Cntrl AR over
the next few days. Current radar mosaic imagery indicates some
widespread convection over much of Ern OK, much of which has
produced significant rainfall already early this AM. New
development can be seen to south of ongoing storms, indicative of
a LLJ of 20-30 kts, which will continue to fuel new convection
through Tues morning beyond daybreak.

Following early Mon morning convection over parts of Wrn and Cntrl
AR, soil moisture remains excessive, leaving these areas extremely
vulnerable to flash flooding. An airmass characterized by modest
MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg, and PWATs > 2" remains over the Wrn half
of the state this morning. Hi-res CAM guidance continues to paint a
training/backbuilding system along a stationary bndry, positioned
over AR along the I-40 corridor. Along the bndry, sfc convergence
will be maximized, in conjunction w/ the aforementioned LLJ and
will support widespread rain and thunderstorms, of which will
likely be efficient rainfall producers. High Chc PoPs will remain
steady through Mon as the bndry advances slowly towards the N/E.

Through the remainder of the fcst period, unsettled weather will
persist as upper flow backs to become S/Wrly with an advancing
shortwave trough. W/ no real alterations to the sfc airmass, rain
and thunderstorms will continue across the Natural State as multiple
perturbations traverse through the mean flow.

&&

.LONG TERM...Thursday Through Monday

A nearly stationary front near the Arkansas and Missouri border will
begin pushing slowly southward on Thursday. Good chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue, but not for long.

Later on Thursday/early Friday, a northwest wind flow aloft will
drive a new cold front this way from the Plains. This front will
barrel through the region, and will be followed by cooler and drier
air.

High pressure will build behind the Plains front, with no rain in
the forecast through the weekend. Yet another cold front will arrive
from the northwest as the period ends with chances of precipitation
returning.

Below to well below normal temperatures are in the forecast through
the period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rainfall totaling 2 to 6 or more inches is expected
through mid/late week over much of western and southwestern
Arkansas as well as portions of central Arkansas. Saturated soils
and significant runoff from this morning's rain event are filling
rivers across these areas... namely the Petit Jean, Fourche
Lafave, and Ouachita Rivers. Uncertainty regarding the exact
placement of heaviest rain in the coming days makes it difficult
to ascertain how much of a river flood threat there will be, but
preliminary forecast and modeling data suggest minor flooding will
indeed be possible if not likely. Flash flooding is also likely on
small, flashy creeks and tributaries.

Other tributaries (e.g., the Caddo and Little Missouri Rivers) as
well as the Saline River will be close enough to where heavy rain
is expected that they will need to be monitored. Any
outdoor/recreational interests on or near any waterway in western,
southwestern, and central Arkansas should remain vigilant and
updated with the latest forecast information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  72  83  71 /  80  60  80  50
Camden AR         91  75  88  73 /  50  40  50  30
Harrison AR       79  69  80  68 /  90  60  70  40
Hot Springs AR    86  73  84  72 /  70  70  80  50
Little Rock   AR  88  74  85  72 /  70  60  70  50
Monticello AR     91  76  90  73 /  40  30  40  30
Mount Ida AR      84  72  81  69 /  80  70  80  50
Mountain Home AR  79  70  81  69 /  90  60  70  50
Newport AR        84  73  83  72 /  80  60  80  50
Pine Bluff AR     90  75  88  72 /  50  40  60  40
Russellville AR   83  72  82  71 /  90  70  80  50
Searcy AR         87  73  85  71 /  80  60  80  50
Stuttgart AR      88  75  87  73 /  60  50  60  40
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Thursday morning FOR Clark-Conway-
Dallas-Faulkner-Garland-Grant-Hot Spring-Johnson-Logan-
Montgomery-Perry-Pike-Polk-Pope-Pulaski-Saline-Scott-Yell.

&&

Short Term...GREEN / Long Term...46

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
302 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

ARZ003>008-012>017-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-020815-
Boone-Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Newton-Searcy-Stone-
Izard-Independence-Lawrence-Johnson-Pope-Van Buren-Cleburne-
Jackson-Logan-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Scott-Yell-Perry-
Polk-Montgomery-Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-
Clark-Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-
Lincoln-Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-
302 AM CDT Tue Sep 1 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Tuesday, widespread rain and thunderstorms will persist over
western and central Arkansas. Excessive soil moisture content
across western and southwestern Arkansas has left the region
extremely vulnerable to flash flooding, prompting the continuation
of the flash flood watch. Heavy rainfall associated with
thunderstorms through Tuesday could bring another 2+ inches to
the region, and pose a significant flash flooding threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday Through Monday

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
on Wednesday, especially in northern and western sections of the
state. One to more than two inches of rain could occur in the
north and west. Additional flash flooding is possible, especially
in portions of the Ouachita Mountains where the ground is
nearly saturated.

Precipitation will build to the south on Thursday, and will not
tend to be as widespread and heavy. Drier air will arrive from the
north on Friday, with rain mostly ending through the weekend.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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