Special Weather Statement, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
135 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.UPDATE...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing
through the day, and updates were sent for areas of higher and
lower coverage earlier and for the heavy banding and locally
training thunderstorms that occurred on the Mississippi Gulf
coast earlier. Regarding severe thunderstorm potential,
Instability is gradually ramping up in areas experiencing somewhat
higher temperatures in the low to mid 70s to go with the very
favorable shear profiles and large scale ascent. Recent SPC
Mesoscale Discussion is monitoring need for another Severe Weather
Watch across the forecast area southeast of the current Tornado
Watch.

&&

.AVIATION...

Conditions were highly variable from LIFR to VFR depending on
location. Conditions should trend mostly in the MVFR to IFR range
this afternoon before lowering to IFR to LIFR again tonight ito
Thursday morning. SHRA/TSRA will continue to bring much lower VSBY
and lower CIGS at times through the forecast period. Southerly
winds will also remain moderate with gusts near 20 knots or higher
at times through tonight before the cold front shifts the winds to
west to northwest during the 06z-15z time period.

&&

22/TD

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020/

SOUNDING DISCUSSION...Low and mid-level instability is noted in
the 12z sounding this morning. MUCAPE is already a decent 1935 J/KG
and mid-level lapse rates between 3 and 6km are up to 5.9C/km. As
temperatures warm with daytime heating today, instability in the
low and mid-levels should further increase. A strong 120 knot jet
is located around 200mb, and a strong low level jet of 35 to 40
knots is also in place. This LLJ is resulting in ample shear in
the lowest 3km with 42 knots of speed shear and 345 M2/S2 of
helicity noted. These values are high enough to support tilted
updrafts and mesocyclone development with any deeper convection
that forms today. One other contributing factor to a higher risk
of damaging storms today is a low LCL reading of 971mb or 1100
feet. This low LCL would support any severe convection becoming
surface based.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  53  56  35 /  90  90  60   0
BTR  77  50  52  36 / 100  90  60   0
ASD  76  55  58  36 / 100 100  80  10
MSY  75  55  57  41 / 100 100  80  10
GPT  70  59  60  38 / 100 100  90  10
PQL  72  61  62  37 / 100  90  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ536-538-550-
     552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ530-534.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ080>082.

GM...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ538-550-552-
     555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ534.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1258 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

LAZ059-061-063-067>069-051930-
Lower Plaquemines-Lower Jefferson-Lower Lafourche-Upper
Lafourche-Upper Plaquemines-Upper Jefferson-
1258 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN LAFOURCHE...CENTRAL
JEFFERSON AND WEST CENTRAL PLAQUEMINES PARISHES...

At 1257 PM CST, a strong thunderstorm was located near Golden Meadow,
or near Galliano, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Galliano, Cut Off, Belle Chasse, Golden Meadow, Jean Lafitte, Myrtle
Grove, Lafitte and Barataria.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

If you are on or near water, get out of the water and move indoors
or inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2926 9031 2931 9034 2930 9035 2933 9039
      2937 9039 2941 9044 2980 9004 2960 8982
      2949 8996 2950 9000 2948 9000
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 226DEG 45KT 2938 9032

PG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
123 PM CST WED FEB 5 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     HAIL             NEW ORLEANS             29.97N 90.08W
02/05/2020  E0.25 INCH       ORLEANS            LA   PUBLIC

            PEA-SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN UPTOWN, NEW ORLEANS, LA IN
            ORLEANS PARISH.

&&

MEGANWIL

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