River Flood Warning 11, NWS New Orleans, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
644 AM CST Wed Feb 5 2020

.SOUNDING DISCUSSION...Low and mid-level instability is noted in
the 12z sounding this morning. MUCAPE is already a decent 1935 J/KG
and mid-level lapse rates between 3 and 6km are up to 5.9C/km. As
temperatures warm with daytime heating today, instability in the
low and mid-levels should further increase. A strong 120 knot jet
is located around 200mb, and a strong low level jet of 35 to 40
knots is also in place. This LLJ is resulting in ample shear in
the lowest 3km with 42 knots of speed shear and 345 M2/S2 of
helicity noted. These values are high enough to support tilted
updrafts and mesocyclone development with any deeper convection
that forms today. One other contributing factor to a higher risk
of damaging storms today is a low LCL reading of 971mb or 1100
feet. This low LCL would support any severe convection becoming
surface based.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  53  56  35 / 100  90  60   0
BTR  77  50  52  36 / 100  90  60   0
ASD  76  55  58  36 / 100 100  80  10
MSY  75  55  57  41 / 100 100  70  10
GPT  70  59  60  38 / 100 100  90  10
PQL  72  61  62  37 / 100 100  90  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ530-532-
     534-536-538-550-552-555.

     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon CST Thursday for
     GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ530-534.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ532.

MS...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM CST this afternoon through Thursday
     afternoon for MSZ080>082.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ532-534-
     536-538-550-552-555.

     Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon CST Thursday for
     GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

     Small Craft Advisory from noon Thursday to 3 AM CST Friday for
     GMZ534.

&&