Special Weather Statement, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1216 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: While IFR/MVFR conditions will improve to VFR
at most locations this afternoon, areas between GLH, GWO and GTR
will remain in those conditions through much of the period.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will eventually
overspread the area from the west this afternoon with
deteriorating conditions as they do so. IFR/LIFR conditions with
gusty winds can be expected as storms impact each TAF site. The
rain and thunderstorms will move east of the area after midnight
as a cold front moves through, but ceilings will remain IFR
through the remainder of the period./GG/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Quasi-stationary frontal boundary continues to oscillate
along I20 from northeast LA eastward through central MS. To the
north, elevated parcels with CAPEs around 2000 J/kg continue to be
isentropically lifted resulting in scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms. Immediately along the front, light showers and
fog persists. While to the south in the warm sector, widespread
stratus was seen in the satellite imagery, although some breaks
were beginning to occur. RAP data confirming the ascent/theta-e
advection over northeast portions with ongoing convection and over
east TX where new intense convection has developed. While the
latest CAM guidance continues to vary in the scenario this
afternoon, they all do agree that modes will be mixed through the
afternoon and evening as the event plays out. Made some changes to
weather and PoP based on latest trends and thinking. Expect
intense storms in the warm sector this afternoon as the boundary
layer warms with clusters of supercells producing very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes, some strong. Also, adjusted temps a
bit, mainly in the north where ongoing precipitation will keep
temperatures cooler./GG/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...
A warm front is slowly lifting through the Gulf States this morning,
providing an increase in rich moisture and warmer temperatures in
the boundary layer, setting up for the severe weather anticipated
today. Overnight and this morning, general ascent across the region
invof and isentropic upglide over the frontal boundary in concert
with steep mid level lapse rates contributed to the development of
some severe elevated convection as well as some more widespread
showers and thunderstorms.  Much of the convection has shifted
north, and though some scattered activity will remain possible
through the morning hours, models are rather consistent with a
broader area of intense convection developing after 18z.

Previous model runs have been a little inconsistent with the
projection of timing, as well as modality for the storm development
this afternoon.  Expecting some version of a wind and hail threat
with some linear segments...but has transitioned into a concern this
afternoon for supercell development as well. An expanding warm
sector will develop as the warm front lifts through the region.
Interaction with the frontal boundary could increase tornadic
potential with early storms, though the main concern initially will
be damaging wind and hail. The situation changes with time however.
Previous model runs have had some issue with whether or not the
morning scattered convection precludes restratifying the column. But
the more recent runs have developed convection just to the west
ahead of a deepening upper trof, moving into far more unstable air
over the region. SBCAPE values in excess of 3000J/kg in the
afternoon ahead of the developing convection in the HRRR 07Z run.
HREF mean sb CAPE is in the same range, more or less, as well as the
RAP, etc. Deep shear of 50-60kts would signal the strong potential
for convection this afternoon to be supercell oriented, and the scp
as well as sig tor parameters all show the same trend. Main threat
will be wind and hail with early scattered convection...but the
afternoon potential for supercells will add in the concern for
tornadoes, potentially strong and long tracked particularly to the
southeast. Given the dynamic set up aloft in concert with 1.5-2" PWs
across the area of most intense convective potential, a flash
flooding concern is added to the mix. Expected rainfall totals range
from 1-4 inches, with a 2.5-4" max axis along and near I-20 across
Mississippi. /HJS/

Monday through Saturday night...
Surface high pressure ridging will build across the area on
Monday. A nice day is on tap with highs mostly in the 70s across
the area. The nice weather will continue on Tuesday as high
pressure ridging continues from a high centered over Missouri. The
surface high will move eastward into the Ohio Valley Tuesday
night into Wednesday, and the surface flow will swing around to
the east then southeast by Wednesday afternoon. A deepening storms
system will approach the region Wednesday, with increasing
chances for storms in the west.

Thunderstorms will spreads east across the area Wednesday evening
through the overnight hours. There are some differences between the
GFS/ECMWF, but they are in fairly good agreement of the timing of
this system across the region. Both of them indicate good
instability and strong shear during the overnight hours, so another
round of severs storms look possible. SPC has not introduced a
severe outlook for this period, but may in future outlooks. Showers
and storms will continue through Thursday morning, but will end from
west to east during the afternoon hours.

High pressure will once again build across the region on Friday, but
this crazy April pattern may rear its ugly head again on Saturday,
as both the GFS/ECMWF move another strong storm system across the
region./15/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  58  73  52 /  85  85   0   0
Meridian      77  58  75  52 /  81  90   0   0
Vicksburg     75  58  73  54 /  88  87   0   0
Hattiesburg   83  62  78  54 /  62  71   0   0
Natchez       77  60  73  54 /  67  69   0   0
Greenville    67  55  71  54 / 100  94   0   0
Greenwood     68  55  71  51 / 100  96   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for MSZ027>033-035>059.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for LAZ009-016-025.

AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007-201030-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northeast Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ018-019-025-026-034-201030-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Washington-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ027>033-201030-
Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph and hail at least to the size of quarters.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ009-016-025-MSZ040-042>059-065-066-201030-
East Carroll-Madison LA-Tensas-Issaquena-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-
Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-
Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Covington-
Jones-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Some
thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and
large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ008-015-023-024-026-MSZ060>064-072>074-201030-
West Carroll-Richland-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, significant severe thunderstorms and
tornadoes are likely with strong tornadoes possible. Some
thunderstorms could also produce damaging winds up to 70 mph and
large hail up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ035>039-041-201030-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Sharkey-
521 AM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of and central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms are likely and
tornadoes are possible. Some thunderstorms may produce damaging
winds up to 70 mph and large hail up to golf ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today through tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

LAZ009-016-MSZ040-047-191930-
Madison LA-East Carroll LA-Warren MS-Issaquena MS-
148 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN EAST CARROLL AND
MADISON PARISHES...NORTHWESTERN WARREN AND SOUTHWESTERN ISSAQUENA
COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM CDT...

At 148 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Tendal, or 10 miles west of Tallulah, moving east at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Tallulah around 200 PM CDT.
  Mansford, Omega and Sondheimer around 205 PM CDT.
  Eagle Bend around 215 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mound and Richmond.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for northeastern
Louisiana...and west central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3232 9150 3232 9147 3234 9148 3234 9150
      3236 9149 3235 9146 3236 9145 3240 9149
      3241 9148 3241 9149 3244 9148 3243 9147
      3253 9147 3254 9144 3256 9143 3267 9096
      3266 9095 3230 9096 3222 9151
TIME...MOT...LOC 1848Z 254DEG 41KT 3242 9137

TW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
218 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0106 PM     HAIL             2 ENE CRYSTAL SPRINGS   32.00N 90.33W
04/19/2020  E0.70 INCH       COPIAH             MS   PUBLIC

            PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED 1 MILE
            WEST OF CRYSTAL SPRINGS.

&&

JNE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
226 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ055-056-064-065-192000-
Smith MS-Jefferson Davis MS-Covington MS-Simpson MS-
226 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN SIMPSON...SOUTHERN
SMITH...NORTHERN COVINGTON AND NORTH CENTRAL JEFFERSON DAVIS COUNTIES
UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 225 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Mount Olive, or 9 miles south of Magee, moving northeast at 45
mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Magee and Mount Olive around 230 PM CDT.
  Taylorsville around 250 PM CDT.
  Center Ridge around 255 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mize.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for south central,
central, southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3175 8990 3196 8968 3195 8946 3183 8931
      3182 8931 3180 8932 3180 8940 3179 8940
      3169 8969
TIME...MOT...LOC 1925Z 232DEG 38KT 3173 8972

DC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ056-057-065-066-192000-
Smith MS-Jones MS-Covington MS-Jasper MS-
234 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN JASPER...
SOUTHEASTERN SMITH...NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON AND NORTHWESTERN JONES
COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

At 234 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Taylorsville, or 9 miles northeast of Collins, moving
north at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Taylorsville around 245 PM CDT.
  Stringer around 250 PM CDT.
  Bay Springs around 255 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Sylvarena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for central,
southeastern and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3157 8940 3160 8951 3205 8942 3203 8926
      3196 8917
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 200DEG 45KT 3171 8942

DC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
303 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     HAIL             2 SSW LAKE              32.32N 89.34W
04/19/2020  E1.00 INCH       SCOTT              MS   PUBLIC

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

&&

CE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
304 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

MSZ057-058-192030-
Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
304 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT JASPER AND WESTERN CLARKE
COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 303 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms 7
miles northwest of Heidelberg, or 10 miles northeast of Stringer,
moving northeast at 60 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

These strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Paulding and Stafford Springs around 310 PM CDT.
  Barnett around 315 PM CDT.
  Orange around 320 PM CDT.
  Quitman and Stonewall around 325 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Pachuta and Shubuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central Mississippi.

LAT...LON 3185 8869 3183 8878 3181 8926 3203 8925
      3218 8917 3218 8869 3206 8865
TIME...MOT...LOC 2003Z 232DEG 54KT 3193 8910

DC