Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
335 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARKLAMISS THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...The threat for severe weather and flash
flooding will be ongoing across a good portion of the forecast area
for the remainder of this afternoon and into the first half of the
tonight period.  Thus, a "Tornado Watch" remains in effect until 7
PM and a "Flash Flood Watch" in effect until 1 AM Monday. As an
upper level trough drives a strong cold front east through the
region from late this afternoon into tonight, ample instability
(particularly across locales along and south of the Interstate 20
corridor), coupled with strong wind shear, and steep mid-level lapse
rates will maintain this threat into tonight.

Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes will remain possible
during this time. Additionally, torrential downpours from storms
training across the same locations, will result in localized flash
flooding across portions of the area, along with an increased threat
of river flooding.  Some light showers will linger behind the front
a couple of hours past midnight, but as the overnight hours progress
activity will exit east and out of the forecast area, with high
pressure building in from the west.

Quiet weather, along with slightly cooler drier conditions, will
exist across the region Monday into Tuesday.  The high will slide
further east of the region on Wednesday resulting in a return in
southerly flow.  This, as the pressure gradient tightens over the
region in response to a deepening and developing storm system
approaching from the west, will cause increased moisture return
across the CWA through Wednesday night.

Currently, it's during this Wednesday afternoon through Thursday
timeframe, that perhaps another bout of severe weather may be
possible across the forecast area, along with perhaps some heavy
rain potential.  Currently, models continue to differ in their exact
track and timing of this system. Therefore, confidence in
introducing a threat of severe weather into the HWO currently
remains too low.

Showers and storms currently look to exit the region through the
course of Thursday.  High pressure again builds into the region from
the west.  At a minimum, the first half of Friday looks to remain
quiet.  However, rain chances could again be on the increase Friday
night into Saturday as another system potentially swings east into
the region. /19/

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion: While IFR/MVFR conditions will improve to VFR
at most locations this afternoon, areas between GLH, GWO and GTR
will remain in those conditions through much of the period.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will eventually
overspread the area from the west this afternoon with
deteriorating conditions as they do so. IFR/LIFR conditions with
gusty winds can be expected as storms impact each TAF site. The
rain and thunderstorms will move east of the area after midnight
as a cold front moves through, but ceilings will remain IFR
through the remainder of the period./GG/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       57  74  52  79 /  93   0   0   0
Meridian      57  75  51  79 / 100   0   0   0
Vicksburg     58  73  54  79 /  87   0   0   0
Hattiesburg   60  78  54  82 /  89   0   0   0
Natchez       58  74  55  79 /  80   0   0   0
Greenville    55  71  53  76 /  92   0   0   0
Greenwood     55  72  52  76 /  95   0   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for MSZ027>033-035>059.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for LAZ009-016-025.

AR...None.

&&

19

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ARZ074-075-MSZ019-025-034-201000-
Ashley-Chicot-Sunflower-Leflore-Washington-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, north central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds of
60 mph and quarter to golf ball size hail are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ018-026-201000-
Bolivar-Grenada-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ027-028-031>033-035-201000-
Carroll-Montgomery-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging winds of
60 mph and quarter to golf ball size hail are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely, and some roads could be
flooded or closed as a result. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water.  River flooding is possible, with
ongoing river flooding potentially worsened.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

MSZ029-030-201000-
Webster-Clay-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi, and northeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and hail up to quarter size are possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely, and some roads could be
flooded or closed as a result. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water.  River flooding is possible, with
ongoing river flooding potentially worsened.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ007-008-015-201000-
Morehouse-West Carroll-Richland-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible.  Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph, and hail
up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ009-MSZ036>041-201000-
East Carroll-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are possible.  Some
thunderstorms may produce damaging winds up to 70 mph, and hail
up to tennis ball size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely, and some roads could be
flooded or closed as a result. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water.  River flooding is possible, with
ongoing river flooding potentially worsened.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ016-025-MSZ042>059-065-066-201000-
Madison LA-Tensas-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Covington-Jones-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely, with
some strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also
produce damaging winds of 70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely, and some roads could be
flooded or closed as a result. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water.  River flooding is possible, with
ongoing river flooding potentially worsened.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ060>064-072>074-201000-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
332 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Monday...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are likely, with
some strong tornadoes possible. Some thunderstorms could also
produce damaging winds of 70 mph and large hail up to tennis ball
size.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible, particularly in low lying
and urban areas. Minor river flooding is possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday night through Saturday...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight.

19

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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