Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2020

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Jackson, MS

February 10, 2020Noxubee County, Winston County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 10, 2020, 2:28 AM CST for Noxubee County, Winston County, Mississippi. It was in force for 35 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Feb 10, 2020, 2:28 AM CST (08:28 UTC)
Expired
Feb 10, 2020, 3:03 AM CST
In force
35 min
Issued by
NWS Jackson, MS
Area
Storm-based polygon
Hail
1.0 in
Wind
50.0 mph

Counties Noxubee County, MS, Winston County, MS

The radar

The Columbus AFB radar (KGWX), 100 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:28 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Feb 10, 2:30 AM CSTHAIL 14 Nw Noxapater, MS

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 2 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 00:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 144 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-02-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Jackson, MS at 00:00Z on 2020-02-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 73 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
1619 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
50 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
73 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
219 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

457 
WUUS54 KJAN 100828
SVRJAN
MSC103-159-100930-
/O.NEW.KJAN.SV.W.0055.200210T0828Z-200210T0930Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Jackson MS
228 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Noxubee County in east central Mississippi...
  Southeastern Winston County in east central Mississippi...

* Until 330 AM CST.

* At 228 AM CST, a severe thunderstorm was located over Center Ridge,
  or near Louisville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Millcreek around 240 AM CST.
  Mashulaville around 250 AM CST.
  Brooksville around 310 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Noxapater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will send your report to the National Weather Service
office in Jackson.

&&

LAT...LON 3296 8912 3305 8917 3329 8878 3329 8855
      3317 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0828Z 240DEG 39KT 3304 8907 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

22
1 follow-up statement
626 
WWUS54 KJAN 100903
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
303 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

MSC103-159-100912-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0055.000000T0000Z-200210T0930Z/
Noxubee MS-Winston MS-
303 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN NOXUBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN WINSTON COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3296 8912 3305 8917 3329 8878 3329 8855
      3317 8846
TIME...MOT...LOC 0900Z 240DEG 39KT 3323 8868 

$$

22

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 10, 12:26 AM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 10, 12:26 AM CST, 2 hours 2 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1226 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:

Flight conditions have begun to worsen areawide as low CIGs and
thunderstorms associated with a slow moving frontal boundary move
into the region. MVFR conditions will exist at most sites by
tomorrow morning with visbys also declining at sites in the west
due to rain and storms. RA and TSRA will continue through much of
the day tomorrow impacting visbys. Better chances for widespread
storms will exist at our northern most sites like KGLH. KGWO, and
KGTR. These storms will train, providing little to no time for
conditions to improve.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Regional radars showed showers and a few thunderstorms to our
southwest that will spread across the CWA overnight. Widespread
rain is expected over our whole CWA prior to sunrise. None of this
activity is expected to be severe tonight but will start to wet
the ground in advance of stronger storms MOnday. Temperatures were
running a couple degrees warmer than expected but the rain will
knock temperatures down and forecast minimum temperatures still
look on track. /22/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight through early Tuesday morning:

Several rounds of heavy rainfall will lead to widespread flash
flooding, some of which could be significant, across portions of the
ArkLaMiss. Additionally, isolated severe storms with all hazards
will also be possible.

A prolonged period of moist southwest flow will become established
across the region as a closed mid/upper-level low diving through
southern California helps to amplify an upstream longwave mean
trough centered across the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region. At
the same time, a stout 592dam 500mb ridge is progged to be located
between the Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. The main impetus for this
first round of active weather will be a Pacific shortwave trough
embedded within the southwesterly flow ejecting through northern
Mexico and into the Gulf Coast states. This morning's 12z suite of
hi-res CAM guidance is in general agreement that the associated
upstream showers and thunderstorms over the ArkLaTex will spread
into the area during the early morning hours Monday ahead of an
advancing cold frontal boundary. The forward movement of the
boundary will slow considerably as it becomes oriented parallel to
the southwesterly flow and will essentially stall over central
Mississippi through Tuesday morning, thus setting the stage for
significant flooding.

Flooding threat - Guidance has come into good agreement on a
prolonged period of training convection along the aforementioned
frontal boundary. These storms will reside within an anomalously
moist environment characteristic of 1.75" PWATs in the 99th
percentile and impressive values of deep moisture convergence. The
greatest threat for significant flooding will be along and north of
a line from northern Richland Parish to southern Noxubee County
where rainfall amounts of 4-6" are expected. Locally higher amounts
upwards of 8" will also be possible where the heaviest rain rates
and longest period of training occurs. There will be a rather sharp
southern rainfall gradient with 2-4" along the I-20 corridor and
only 1-2" into the Pine Belt. The limited threat area for flooding
has been trimmed north for this reason. The intial flooding graphic
has been split into two separate graphics as there will be a
distinct lull in the heavy rainfall during the day on Tuesday into
early Wednesday. As such, while the rainfall totals for the first
round of heavy rain are slightly lower, the anticipated impacts
remain the same.

Severe weather - the environment ahead of the frontal boundary will
be unstable with SBCAPE values around 1000 J/kg during peak heating
on Monday. Deep-layer shear of 50-60kts will also be supportive of
organized convective structures. However, the training nature of the
convection will generally preclude a greater severe weather threat.
With that being said, isolated severe weather will be possible with
any portions of the convective line that can remain surface based
and surge into the unstable air without being undercut by cold
pools. Furthermore, hi-res CAM guidance has indicated the potential
for a few storms within the open warm sector ahead of the frontal
boundary but confidence is lower in this scenario. While the threat
is isolated, the respective parameter space is supportive of all
hazards and a marginal risk will be maintained in the HWO/graphics.

Tuesday through Wednesday morning:

A relative lull in the heavy rainfall and storms is expected during
the day on Tuesday through Wednesday morning as the lead Pacific
shortwave trough lifts into the Appalachians and forcing becomes
more nebulous. At least weak isentropic ascent will continue through
the period with showers likely, however. An isolated storm or two
will also be possible across southeastern portions of the area ahead
of the stalled boundary where enough instability could support
updrafts strong enough for charge separation and lightning.
Additional rainfall during the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night
will generally be 0.25-0.5" and not enough to exacerbate any ongoing
flooding. Will keep the HWO/graphics clear of any hazards during the
Tuesday into Wednesday morning period.

Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning:

The second round of heavy rainfall and storms will take place
Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning as the primary,
and much stronger, shortwave trough over the Desert Southwest
finally ejects into the Southern Plains and Gulf Coast states. The
GFS has trended into agreement with the ECMWF solution which depicts
surface cyclogenesis across the ArkLaTex on Wednesday morning with
the low lifting northeast into the Ohio River Valley by Thursday
morning. This will allow the stalled frontal boundary to lift back
north as a warm front with the majority of the area residing within
the open warm sector Wednesday afternoon. An early round of
convection will be possible along the warm front Wednesday morning,
but the primary focus will shift to the cold frontal passage
Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning.

Flooding threat - another quick 2-3" of rainfall will be possible
with a convective line pushing through the area. Locally higher
amounts will also be possible, especially if the line moves through
slower than anticipated. While 2-3" normally isn't a big problem,
this will be occurring only 24hrs after the first round of
significant rainfall and flooding issues are expected to already be
ongoing. As such, it won't take much rain in a short amount of time
to further exacerbate flooding. PWATs will also remain in the 99th
percentile and convection will reside within an impressive 330-335K
850mb ThetaE ridge, thus further supporting intense rainfall rates.
As previously mentioned, the flooding threat has been separated into
two graphics to highlight the two distinct periods of heavy
rainfall. An elevated threat area has been added for Wednesday into
Thursday for much of the area. The eventual threat level and outlook
area for this second round will be highly dependent on where and how
much rainfall occurs Monday into Tuesday. It's definitely possible
that another significant threat area will be needed for at least
some portion of the area and will be further evaluated.

Severe weather - there's a strong signal in the 12z guidance for a
QLCS to push through the area Wednesday afternoon into early
Thursday. Sufficient instability is progged to reside ahead of the
line with the ECMWF, GFS, and NAM all depicting around 1000 J/kg of
SBCAPE. The environment will also be highly sheared with 60-65kts of
0-6km deep-layer shear, 30kts of 0-1km shear and 200-300 m2/s2 0-1km
SRH. While this parameter space is impressive, further inspection of
the orientation of the shear vectors, particularly at 0-3km and 0-
6km, reveals a boundary parallel orientation. Model QPF fields also
indicate that the QLCS will reside right on or just behind the
frontal boundary itself. This setup strongly favors cold pools
undercutting the QLCS which would greatly inhibit any severe weather
threat. Confidence in severe weather potential remains fairly low at
this point, despite the advertised enhanced risk in the
HWO/graphics. Will maintain consistency and not make any adjustments
to the threat level or area at this point, but barring any major
changes in the guidance its possible that the severe weather threat
will need to be downgraded and the reader is strongly encouraged to
stay tuned to future forecast updates.

Thursday through Sunday:

The shortwave trough axis is expected to lift into the Mid-Atlantic
Thursday with drying conditions for the region. This break in the
active pattern is currently forecast to last at least through
Friday. There are subtle differences in timing, but both GFS and
ECMWF solutions bring yet another storm system into the region next
weekend as a shortwave trough ejects out of the Desert Southwest.
/TW/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       63  71  60  60 /  95  94  60  46
Meridian      59  71  65  68 /  83  78  63  35
Vicksburg     64  72  54  56 /  98 100  59  58
Hattiesburg   62  73  67  73 /  63  45  46  30
Natchez       64  73  60  62 /  80  76  58  37
Greenville    59  62  45  50 / 100 100  60  85
Greenwood     60  64  48  54 / 100 100  56  83

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for MSZ018-019-025>053.

LA...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM CST this morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for ARZ074-075.

&&

JPM3
Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 10, 1:57 AM CST, 31 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ARZ074-075-MSZ018-019-026-030-031-039-110800-
Ashley-Chicot-Bolivar-Sunflower-Grenada-Clay-Lowndes-Noxubee-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, east central Mississippi, and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, widespread flash flooding is likely and
significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or
closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

LAZ007>009-015-MSZ025-027>029-032>038-040>042-110800-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Leflore-Carroll-
Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-
Attala-Winston-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph, hail at least to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, widespread flash flooding is likely and
significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or
closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ043>045-047>050-053-110800-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph, hail at least to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

MSZ046-051-052-054-056-110800-
Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Copiah-Smith-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, areas of flash flooding likely and some
roads could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be
potentially threatened by high water. Minor river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

LAZ024-MSZ059-110800-
Catahoula-Jefferson-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging winds to
60 mph, hail at least to the size of quarters, and tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

LAZ026-MSZ055-057-058-060>063-065-110800-
Concordia-Simpson-Jasper-Clarke-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Covington-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, and
south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

Today through tonight, localized flash flooding is possible,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

MSZ066-072>074-110800-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

MSZ064-110800-
Jefferson Davis-
157 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Today through tonight, isolated severe thunderstorms are
possible. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts
and hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Flooding is expected again Wednesday as heavy rain pushes through
the area with a cold front. The additional heavy rain amounts
over already saturated soils may lead to more widespread flash
flooding.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the ArkLaMiss on
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cold front sweeps through
the region. Damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and large hail will
all be possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight and Wednesday through Wednesday night.

3

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Feb 9, 11:06 PM CST, 3 hours 22 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1106 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ047-053-100600-
Tensas LA-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Warren MS-Claiborne MS-
1106 PM CST Sun Feb 9 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT TENSAS...CENTRAL MADISON AND
SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN PARISHES...SOUTHWESTERN WARREN AND NORTHERN
CLAIBORNE COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST...

At 1105 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Cooter Point, or 18 miles southeast of Winnsboro, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Newlight around 1110 PM CST.
  Lake Bruin around 1120 PM CST.
  Newellton around 1125 PM CST.
  Somerset around 1130 PM CST.
  Afton around 1135 PM CST.
  Vicksburg, Le Tourneau and Yokena around 1150 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Mound and Delta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3186 9144 3212 9166 3246 9100 3214 9075
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 238DEG 39KT 3201 9145

JM
Special weather statement, Feb 10, 12:47 AM CST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1247 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

MSZ025-035-041-100730-
Sharkey MS-Humphreys MS-Leflore MS-
1247 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN LEFLORE...HUMPHREYS
AND NORTHEASTERN SHARKEY COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CST...

At 1246 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
near Delta City, or 11 miles southeast of Hollandale, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Midnight around 1255 AM CST.
  Belzoni around 110 AM CST.
  Swiftown around 120 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Silver City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3323 9033 3315 9033 3310 9041 3312 9043
      3309 9043 3290 9075 3305 9087 3310 9081
      3310 9069 3311 9068 3312 9070 3314 9070
      3315 9069 3318 9069 3333 9048 3333 9045
      3335 9045
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 231DEG 41KT 3303 9073

22
Local storm report, Feb 10, 1:49 AM CST, 39 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
149 AM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 AM     HAIL             1 NE BELZONI            33.19N 90.48W
02/10/2020  E1.00 INCH       HUMPHREYS          MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF
            BELZONI.

&&

MME
Special weather statement, Feb 10, 2:12 AM CST, 16 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
212 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

MSZ038-045-100900-
Neshoba MS-Winston MS-
212 AM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN WINSTON AND NORTHERN
NESHOBA COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM CST...

At 211 AM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Zama, or 9 miles northeast of Edinburg, moving
east at 40 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Stallo around 225 AM CST.
  Nanih Waiya around 235 AM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Noxapater.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8891 3290 8892 3281 8931 3284 8932
      3300 8932 3315 8881 3293 8882
TIME...MOT...LOC 0811Z 248DEG 34KT 3293 8926

22

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Feb 9, 11:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANWarren64 min
Feb 10, 12:06 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANHinds, Warren24 min
Feb 10, 12:47 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANHumphreys43 min
Feb 10, 1:02 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Leflore58 min
Feb 10, 1:37 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANCarroll, Grenada, Holmes, Leflore, Montgomery, Webster53 min
Feb 10, 2:12 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANWinston48 min
Feb 10, 3:18 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAttala27 min
Feb 10, 3:37 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANAttala, Holmes23 min
Feb 10, 8:18 AM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANJones42 min
Feb 10, 8:56 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANLeake8 days
Feb 10, 8:56 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANMadison, Rankin9 days
Feb 10, 9:27 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANLeake3 hr
Feb 10, 9:43 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCarroll, Grenada, Leflore, Montgomery8 hr
Feb 10, 10:31 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANNoxubee3 hr
Feb 10, 10:59 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSunflower21 days
Feb 10, 10:59 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANSharkey38 days
Feb 10, 11:04 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANBolivar, Washington27 days
Feb 10, 11:29 AM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANCarroll, Holmes, Humphreys, Leflore, Sunflower3 hr
Feb 10, 11:49 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANChoctaw, Oktibbeha41 min
Feb 10, 11:58 AM CSTRiver Flood WarningJANHinds, Rankin21 days
Feb 10, 12:26 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Holmes, Madison, Yazoo49 min
Feb 10, 12:38 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANHolmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Sharkey, Yazoo6 hr
Feb 10, 12:55 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANAttala, Leake, Madison7 hr
Feb 10, 1:00 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANAttala, Leake, Madison45 min
Feb 10, 1:36 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANIssaquena, Madison, Sharkey, Warren, Yazoo3 hr
Feb 10, 1:39 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANNeshoba36 min
Feb 10, 1:56 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANChoctaw, Kemper, Neshoba, Noxubee, Winston3 hr
Feb 10, 2:10 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANLeake, Madison, Rankin, Scott3 hr
Feb 10, 2:11 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLeake34 min
Feb 10, 2:52 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANMarion23 min
Feb 10, 3:03 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANChoctaw, Clay, Lowndes, Oktibbeha, Webster6 hr
Feb 10, 3:48 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANKemper27 min
Feb 10, 4:39 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANChoctaw, Kemper, Neshoba, Noxubee, Winston6 hr
Feb 10, 4:42 PM CSTSpecial Weather StatementJANLawrence, Lincoln63 min
Feb 10, 4:59 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningJANLawrence, Lincoln61 min
Feb 10, 5:23 PM CSTFlash Flood WarningJANForrest, Lamar87 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2020Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.