Flash Flood Warning 43, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
420 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

.DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon through Tomorrow:

The primary message remains the likelihood of flooding (both flash
flooding and river flooding) as we head into tomorrow. The reports
and radar estimates of rainfall today have approached 4 to 6
inches for parts of the area - mainly along an axis from Leflore
County east to Webster County and along an axis generally from
Yazoo County east to Kemper County. Ongoing flooding is noted in
several of the Flash Flood Warnings in effect through this
evening, where reports of flooded roads have been common. The
river flooding situation continues to worsen as well. Many local
rivers and streams are on the rise, with the runoff from today's
excessive rainfall expected to result in moderate to major river
flooding over the next few days. The threat for strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will continue through around 9 PM
tonight. Daytime instability has resulted in a few low-topped
supercells, and these will pose a threat for damaging wind gusts
and an isolated tornado or two if low-level wind shear vectors can
align with any bowing segments. The loss of daytime heating this
evening will slowly cut off the threat for severe weather for the
overnight hours.

The west-east oriented frontal boundary to our north will
gradually sink southward through the day tomorrow - aided in its
southward push by rain- cooled air. Especially true for the
overnight hours tonight, the combined front/outflow boundary will
serve as the focus for additional heavy rainfall. Various high
resolution model guidance is an agreement that a surface low
lifting northeastward along the front will boost low-level
southerly flow across the boundary, with PWAT values in excess of
1.5 inches in the airmass being lifted over the boundary. Average
additional rainfall values north of Interstate 20 through tonight
will be on the order of 1 to 1.5 inches, so will leave the current
configuration to the Flood threat graphics and the current Flash
Flood Watch. Rain chances will shift north of the boundary
tomorrow as the next system develops to our west, but the threat
for flash flooding should mostly taper off by tomorrow afternoon
with the relative lull in rain across the area. /NF/

Tuesday night through the weekend...

The long-term forecast main focus will be the next severe event
Wednesday. This event will consist of multiple hazards including
additional flash flooding. There will be a bit of a break from
rain Thursday evening and Friday but possible rain chances will
return this upcoming weekend.

On Wednesday evening a weak frontal boundary will progress
through the region. Ahead of the front, heavy rain and storm
chances will be possible for Wednesday afternoon through overnight
hours. Though CAPE values aren't very 'high'(600-1000J/kg), there
is still enough instability and shear which supports the
potential for severe weather, hence SPC day 3 outlook for an
Enhanced Risk Wednesday. Another threat is flash flooding. Due to
ongoing flooding from heavy rain/storms today, an additional 2
inches will be possible on Wednesday as a closed low tracks across
the Southern Plains and eventually ejects east affecting the
ArkLaMiss. Will keep the Enhanced Risk for severe potential and an
Elevated/Slight for flooding in the HWO as new model guidance
continues to be consistent with data from yesterday.

As for Thursday through the weekend, the then old front will have
made its way out of the region bringing a drier and cooler air mass
with max temperatures possibly being in the high 50s in the south
and low to mid 50s elsewhere vs max temperatures for Wednesday will
range from the mid 60s to high 70s from the north to the south.
Though the front will have passed through Wed-Thurs, the front will
lift back up Saturday evening-Sunday and sort of hang up and hover
just south of the state allowing for increased moisture to seep
inland and create rain chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday and
possibly next week. A possible wet trend will continue into next
week but confidence on heavy or storm potential is low due to this
being a week away but will keep an eye out./JNE/

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF discussion:
SHRA and TSRA will affect various TAF sites throughout the TAF
period, with periods of reduced visibility and broken MVFR or
lower ceilings accompanying heavy rainfall. After 00Z, increasing
chances for low stratus even away from any rain so have MVFR to
IFR ceilings at most sites. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       60  65  54  74 /  96  73  56  71
Meridian      66  68  54  76 /  95  55  47  46
Vicksburg     54  56  50  70 / 100  73  68  87
Hattiesburg   68  75  61  78 /  39  29  37  43
Natchez       61  65  54  73 /  61  68  53  83
Greenville    46  49  44  59 / 100  77  89  96
Greenwood     50  52  47  65 / 100  67  84  90

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for MSZ018-019-
     025>054-059>061.

LA...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for ARZ074-075.

&&

NF/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-MSZ019-025>039-041-112245-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Sunflower-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Sharkey-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated strong severe thunderstorms are possible through early
this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and small hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely through tonight and
significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or
closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

MSZ018-112245-
Bolivar-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northwest
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Widespread flash flooding is likely through tonight and
significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or
closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

LAZ015-MSZ040-042-112245-
Richland-Issaquena-Yazoo-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
and quarter size hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Widespread flash flooding is likely through tonight and
significant flooding is possible. Many roads could be flooded or
closed and some structural flooding and water rescues are likely.
Moderate to major river flooding will also be likely.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

LAZ016-023-025-MSZ043>045-047>051-053-054-112245-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Claiborne-Copiah-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
and quarter size hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely through tonight and some roads
could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water. Moderate to major river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

MSZ046-052-056-112245-
Kemper-Lauderdale-Smith-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, and east central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated strong severe thunderstorms are possible through early
this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and small hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Areas of flash flooding are likely through tonight and some roads
could be flooded or closed. Some structures may be potentially
threatened by high water. Moderate to major river flooding is
also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

LAZ024-026-MSZ055-059>061-112245-
Catahoula-Concordia-Simpson-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible through early this evening.
Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph
and quarter size hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

MSZ057-058-062>065-112245-
Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of east central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated strong severe thunderstorms are possible through early
this evening. Some thunderstorms could produce damaging wind
gusts and small hail. A tornado cannot be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday through
Wednesday night.

MSZ066-072-073-112245-
Jones-Marion-Lamar-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Mississippi, and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Localized flash flooding is possible through tonight,
particularly in low lying and urban areas. Minor river flooding
is also possible.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

MSZ074-112245-
Forrest-
432 PM CST Mon Feb 10 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms and additional heavy rainfall causing flash
flooding will affect most of the forecast area Wednesday through
Wednesday night. Moderate to major river flooding is also
expected to continue across the area as a result of recent and
additional rounds of rainfall.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/3.png)
(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/4.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

NF

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Widespread and significant flooding is likely.
Significant...Widespread flash flooding is likely
 and significant flooding is possible.
Elevated...Areas of flash flooding likely.
Limited...Localized flash flooding is possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   https://www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
402 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NW TINSLEY            32.76N 90.49W
02/10/2020                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PORTIONS OF HWY 3 ARE FLOODED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
403 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SSW SATARTIA          32.64N 90.56W
02/10/2020                   YAZOO              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PARTS OF HWY 3 ARE FLOODED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
412 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 W ELLISON RIDGE       33.06N 88.93W
02/10/2020                   WINSTON            MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            PART OF CRYSTAL RIDGE RD UNDERWATER.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
416 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSE LAKE PROVIDENCE   32.80N 91.18W
02/10/2020                   EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SOME HOMES THREATENED BY FLOODING,
            SANDBAGGING TAKING PLACE.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
418 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW LAKE PROVIDENCE    32.79N 91.22W
02/10/2020                   EAST CARROLL       LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            PART OF 3181 FLOODED.

&&

CE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
433 PM CST MON FEB 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW ARLINGTON          32.85N 89.20W
02/10/2020                   NESHOBA            MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MULTIPLE ROADS FLOODING ACROSS N PART OF
            NESHOBA COUNTY.

&&

CE